Met1985 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yeah hedging or getting excited about one run from any model is a huge mistake and has been all winter. Say what you will but the euro is struggling. Literally a 20 to 30 degree change for one area in just one run. The GFS has been a bit more consistent recently. That being said like some of the mets have already said, there are a lot of variables that are going into what is what... You have the MJO, the PV, all the blocking from one end of the globe to the other. The complexity in which current and future weather patterns are based on are line walking on a tight rope currently. You could go either way. That's why the whole norms of winter are not norms of this winter so far. Ive seen a lot of the pattern will relaxe, or the pattern is ripe when truly we have been stuck in between both so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 10:12 PM, WeatherWeenie87 said: Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! Expand People are not going to like the snow maps or precip depictions but there’s a lot of potential showing up still. I think a CAD event, or multiple, seem probable in the coming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 18z gfs is a dumpster fire. Ridge holds over the east coast. Who the hell knows whats going to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 10:12 PM, WeatherWeenie87 said: Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! Man that ridge keeps digging deeper and deeper on the east coastSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 10:47 PM, NorthHillsWx said: People are not going to like the snow maps or precip depictions but there’s a lot of potential showing up still. I think a CAD event, or multiple, seem probable in the coming period. Expand That's worked so well for us here in the Triangle all winter. Cold rain with some annoying mixing. Rinse and repeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just going to leave this here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Okay. Which is it? A dumpster fire or so many opportunities? Or so many dumpster fire opportunities? 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 11:31 PM, magpiemaniac said: Okay. Which is it? A dumpster fire or so many opportunities? Or so many dumpster fire opportunities? Expand Pick the model of your choice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 11:31 PM, magpiemaniac said: Okay. Which is it? A dumpster fire or so many opportunities? Or so many dumpster fire opportunities? Expand The latter haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 4:45 PM, BooneWX said: The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data. Expand This is true. If they had all the data they would be inconsistent in a completely different way. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I feel the best of winter is yet to come. Time will tell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 12:14 AM, Ghicks said: I feel the best of winter is yet to come. Time will tell Expand You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you? I think you'll get a few more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 11:29 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Just going to leave this here. Expand That would be me and my F250 hauling the cold back from Cincy on Friday. Highs in the teens, lows below zero here on Friday. I'll do my part for the forum but somebody else needs to figure out the QPF. Still a chance for a Valentine's Day surprise! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Control run had an ice storm for north of 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 10:48 PM, Wow said: 18z gfs is a dumpster fire. Ridge holds over the east coast. Who the hell knows whats going to happen Expand 18Z GEFS was also a bummer. A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC . The big cold was completely lost. So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run. That PV is driving me insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 2:29 AM, cbmclean said: 18Z GEFS was also a bummer. A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC . The big cold was completely lost. So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run. That PV is driving me insane.1052 over MontanaSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 12:18 AM, CaryWx said: You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you? I think you'll get a few more Expand I’ve had a couple of snow days so to say but only around 4 inches total. Now 30 min north of me and west they have had several inches so far. All about elevation I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 No luck with that historic cold next week. That’s some rare air and we won’t experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:46 AM, magpiemaniac said: No luck with that historic cold next week. That’s some rare air and we won’t experience it. Expand According to which models at which times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:50 AM, cbmclean said: According to which models at which times? Expand The 00z GFS tonight isn’t looking so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:52 AM, magpiemaniac said: The 00z GFS tonight isn’t looking so good. Expand That would be disappointing, concert in Brownsville TX than at RDU. But the models seem to be completely unable to pin the PV down. I wouldn't say we are out of the running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:58 AM, cbmclean said: That would be disappointing, concert in Brownsville TX than at RDU. But the models seem to be completely unable to pin the PV down. I wouldn't say we are out of the running yet. Expand The model swings are nuts. You’re right though. It can swing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead. It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 10:48 PM, Wow said: 18z gfs is a dumpster fire. Ridge holds over the east coast. Who the hell knows whats going to happen Expand Dumpster fire. Is that a weather term for a warm rain or cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Warm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Friday is looking like it has potential to be icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GEFS is significantly better than the op but yea, not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 5:22 AM, wncsnow said: The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead. It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched Expand Yep. This. At least cold air is in striking distance now but that SE ridge seems to always win out when it’s established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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