eyewall Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah I think it is pretty much over. Time is just about up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: yep next weekend looked so promising and now poff and we're back to 10 days or 14 days out again till the 21st, where is that cold air that we were suppose to have this coming week. Thought for sure it would be here by next weekend. You're under a winter storm warning currently 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I think it is pretty much over. Time is just about up. If we don’t score in next 10 days I’d have to agree. Late February/March snows are not that fun 99% of the time unless you enjoy snow that lasts 8 hours on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hey everyone.... I know there’s a lot of cliff diving at the moment, but please keep the whining in the correct thread. I would greatly appreciate it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On the bright side, at the the 500mb anamoly on the GEFS has been ticking slightly more in our favor the last few runsSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: On the bright side, at the the 500mb anamoly on the GEFS has been ticking slightly more in our favor the last few runs Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back..... Glad I am not the only one who noticed, if the jester starts back that trend we might be in business. I think they severely over amped the SER and are now having to recorrect. We still got some wiggle room to work with time wiseSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back..... Good trends on 06 GEFS with more wedging later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 What are the odds the models lost the system again at day 7-8 and find it again at day 5 like has happened many times before? Im on the coast so I know my odds are slim to none regardless but I always enjoy seeing my fellow NC people get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Good trends on 06 GEFS with more wedging later next week. Oh that will change!! Trends were good for the first part of the week being the coldest air of the last 3 years...you see how that worked out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Snow haven said: Oh that will change!! Trends were good for the first part of the week being the coldest air of the last 3 years...you see how that worked out! Of course it's going to change, no one here has the answers to what the upcoming pattern will bring. At this point following the ensembles is the way to go, but that will drive you crazy because it seems like the GFS and Euro always do the opposite of each other lol. I am right there with you it's coming, oh it will be here, and the next thing you know we are still looking 7- 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: 12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first. Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. Kinda obv the models are going to struggle mightily with middle to end of next week storm. CMC has a 1041 in a damn good spot yet it looks like frozen may line up even to my north northwest. High in that position there’s no way. Beyond this one looks like a headache of a storm to track waiting to happen. Regardless it’s lights out for somebody on the wintry side. That is a mega death band of precip just getting pumped from the gulf. Ice ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just saw that. Looks like the cold will finally win out by Saturday then a disturbance. I’ve seen this scenario play out before. In general, it takes artic air to make life interesting east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Just saw that. Looks like the cold will finally win out by Saturday then a disturbance. I’ve seen this scenario play out before. In general, it takes artic air to make life interesting east of the mountains. Yep, it’s a tale as old as time on this side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Baby steps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like the Canadian delays the strong core of cold. That doesn’t work for most of us. We will see what the European says and see what the ensemble trends are to get a better gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 We need a 100 mile shift 130 hours away for a major ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 43 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out. Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger... 2/3 18z same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Also - go look back at models runs a week ago forecast for today. Both the Euro and GFS showed a ridge off the east coast. I'm pretty confident the cold pattern will return for next week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wow said: That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out. Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger... Thats my hope, the chances the models have the location and timing of the S/W's in this range given the setup is pretty low and there is going to be a lot of changes run to run, it wont be till Tues/Wed once the players are better sampled modeled that we get a real idea....so while the monster big dog seems much less likely on most runs the potential for it to come back is certainly there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 People have to realize that maybe this isn’t a sleet or snow event but the extracted data on BUFKIT shows Greensboro very close to a n ice storm disaster at 12z. What do we know about ice events? They almost always trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: People have to realize that maybe this isn’t a sleet or snow event but the extracted data on BUFKIT shows Greensboro very close to a n ice storm disaster at 12z. What do we know about ice events? They almost always trend colder. Right we need the PV to either dive on down and give us a monster snow storm or hang up.....some runs have had epic ice storms with temps in the single digits and teens for DAYS afterwards which would be certainly life threatening with widespread power outages, and with that kind of bitter cold it would be very difficult for crews to begin to repair the damage.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I just want to see the cold vortex in Canada drop down. Euro/EPS from last night never dropped it down because it loses the NE PAC ridging, so that’s the close the curtains scenario. UKMet and GFS/GEFS look similar at 144 today where they both want to swing it down out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, griteater said: I just want to see the cold vortex in Canada drop down. Euro/EPS from last night never dropped it down because it loses the NE PAC ridging, so that’s the close the curtains scenario. UKMet and GFS/GEFS look similar at 144 today where they both want to swing it down out of Canada. You know it seems like the UKMET has been the one most on top of the trends lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: You know it seems like the UKMET has been the one most on top of the trends lately. I'm telling you it has done a pretty good job with the past few storms here and catching on to trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: You know it seems like the UKMET has been the one most on top of the trends lately. Was going to say the same thing lol but want to see if the Euro follows up last night’s run. In fairness, the UKMet doesn’t go out into the long range as you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It just seems odd to me that you could get a polar vortex to kick southwest towards the west coast when you have a retrograding block... the vortex should move the opposite direction... as the bock swings west the vortex should push East. have to hope the models are overdoing the southeast ridge effect as that seems to be biggest hinderance to it moving East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now