lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked I think it’s the new DGEX. Certainly looks like it going off the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+47r2 https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/2020/10/15/News+on+the+next+model+upgrade+-+IFS+cycle+47r2 Should be fully implemented later this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked Should be just the next version of the Euro Operational. It’s the new and improved version as long as it keeps pumping out snow maps like those above 2 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wow said: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+47r2 https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/2020/10/15/News+on+the+next+model+upgrade+-+IFS+cycle+47r2 Should be fully implemented later this year Ok, appreciate the context. I had an inkling that it was this, but "hey, here's a new euro. it's better than the current euro. and it shows a generationally winter weather event" feels too good to be true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Ok, appreciate the context. I had an inkling that it was this, but "hey, here's a new euro. it's better than the current euro. and it shows a generationally winter weather event" feels too good to be true. This one makes coffee too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClemsonTiger Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 With the potential for ice accumulations... and I know it’s a long way out... what do we see for potential wind conditions on the 14th and 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, CaryWx said: This one makes coffee too. The good european stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, ClemsonTiger said: With the potential for ice accumulations... and I know it’s a long way out... what do we see for potential wind conditions on the 14th and 15th? Yeah, long way out, but at the moment, the setup would favor modest surface low pressure strength, so naturally, weak to moderate winds instead of heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CustomWX said: FWIW, the Euro Parallel continues with its bullish runs. Even half this storm would paralyze the south (ala Blizzard of 1993). Here in NC they atleast have plows but Georgia has almost none. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If the GFS was in a dumpster, not even the raccoons would be interested. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Tick south on the storm on the 12z, low cuts up over Greenville instead of Tennessee like it was on 6zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS stepped back some from the 6z craphole.. It has a problem wanting to wrap up the PV too far west .. need to see it more elongated and building closer to the 50/50 benchmark like the Euro and the previous GFS runs (ala the glorious 2/3 18z run). The Euro actually looks close to that run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 After the Thu-Fri rainstorm, the GFS ain't playing with the cold...drops the TPV down into the Great Lakes and has a very tall ridge up thru Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wow said: GFS stepped back some from the 6z craphole.. It has a problem wanting to wrap up the PV too far west .. need to see it more elongated and building closer to the 50/50 benchmark like the Euro and the previous GFS runs (ala the glorious 2/3 18z run). The Euro actually looks close to that run.. The only thing that bothers me with the gfs (at present) is it's more or less consistent progging of rain in NC. Cannot ignore that completely. Has some support from Icon and the UKMET (144hr) last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, griteater said: After the Thu-Fri rainstorm, the GFS ain't playing with the cold...drops the TPV down into the Great Lakes and has a very tall ridge up thru Alaska Grit, do you see a chance developing (blending everything we know now) for basically a wet frontal passage system (mostly all rain) with the hope (not certain) of a 2nd system coming in to really drop the wintery stuff in NC (outside the mtns because they will do well regardless) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I thought the GFS was harmless and i'm not really going to be alarmed until i see wholesale changes on the euro/euro ens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Grit, do you see a chance developing (blending everything we know now) for basically a wet frontal passage system (mostly all rain) with the hope (not certain) of a 2nd system coming in to really drop the wintery stuff in NC (outside the mtns because they will do well regardless) 12z GFS/CMC/UKMet all have that look of late week rain storm, then cold (UKMet only out to 144 shows the rainstorm setup, don't know afterward)...let's see what the Ensembles and Euro show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If you think about it the GFS makes sense in the fact that Ninas love to pop a SE ridge in February historically. It's a battle between that and the -AO, NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 CMC is crazy looking at the end...it has the entire coast from Brownsville to south of New Orleans below freezing with warm advection precip from the gulf being thrown up into the cold air (wintry mix) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This will be a better GEFS run from what I am seeing through 135. Not as good as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 BrrrrrrSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Brrrrrr Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Some of me old bones just popped looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Those of yall hyperventilating over the OP GFS can be reassured that the GEFS evolution of this event is nothing like the OP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Those of yall hyperventilating over the OP GFS can be reassured that the GEFS evolution of this event is nothing like the OP. You should charge for the therapy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Those of yall hyperventilating over the OP GFS can be reassured that the GEFS evolution of this event is nothing like the OP. GEFS is way too wind-shield wipery for my taste, will stick with the euro ens, but verbatim it's telling me to buy a portable phone charger and make sure all the heavy blankets are clean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, ILMRoss said: GEFS is way too wind-shield wipery for my taste, will stick with the euro ens, but verbatim it's telling me to buy a portable phone charger and make sure all the heavy blankets are clean You are right about that on all counts. 6 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: You should charge for the therapy I'll setup a therapy venmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 better.. vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I dont know if I've ever seen a nearly 20 below normal MEAN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS ensemble mean is nice for potential next weekend. Wish this wasn't so far out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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