BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 44 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well @66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish solid 6-10” event for NC mountains/southern va. Even some accumulation back into the NW triad. Haven’t looked at 850s or upstairs to see if it’s all snow. Yeah this is getting interesting quick... hopefully EURO/UK will follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah this is getting interesting quick... hopefully EURO/UK will follow suit You may be in a good spot for this weekend. Definitely trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Looks like the para is in between the GFS Reg and the CMC Yeah it is very, very icy for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'm more worried about missing this event to the south or east than I am west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Huge NW shift in precip shield on UK for this weekends event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 For Sunday's storm the Canadian is moving toward the other models. One more trend like this would definitely put some snow in WNC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 So who’s doing the honors for this weekend if 18Z suite follows ? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: So who’s doing the honors for this weekend if 18Z suite follows ? Lol Not me! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, WXNewton said: For Sunday's storm the Canadian is moving toward the other models. One more trend like this would definitely put some snow in WNC. Looks like Upper low keeps digging stronger and further south each run too, I think it will keep correcting like this for a couple more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 UK snow, bit warmer than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'd say that is a strong signal: 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Man, this is a damn good ensemble run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 In summation: ignore the OP. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Man, this is a damn good ensemble run. 1048 ensemble mean 9 days out over southern canada is absolutely bonkers. GFS ENS simply put, leagues better than the GFS for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: 1048 ensemble mean 9 days out over southern canada is absolutely bonkers. GFS ENS simply put, leagues better than the GFS for us. Wow nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above. The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12Z GFSV16 just has wintry event after wintry event trekking through WNC through the end of its run. Wowza! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above. The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.I noticed that too, we are still 10 days out so it could swing backSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above. The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying. The more progressive solution is the game changer. If this trend continues, expect to see a less amplified system and the 850 line progressing nw. Wouldn’t call this a a NW trend, per se, but more of a weaker system and different setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I cant remember seeing a colder pattern on an ensemble mean in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above. The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying. Agreed. Its significantly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The mean is warmer Bc There are several solutions like the OP and warmer. Doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to pan out. There are lots of cold solutions too. The cmc keeps the Canadian vortex moving east as does last nights euro. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The mean is warmer Bc There are several solutions like the OP and warmer. Doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to pan out. There are lots of cold solutions too. The cmc keeps the Canadian vortex moving east as does last nights euro. Hence the bated breath await now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The more progressive solution is the game changer. If this trend continues, expect to see a less amplified system and the 850 line progressing nw. Wouldn’t call this a a NW trend, per se, but more of a weaker system and different setup Yes, we want our storm wave (if it actually exists come go time ha) to dig south more which would give us that additional latitude to play with AND to slow it down so that the high has a chance to build in some ahead of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Regarding the airplane obs, it's a significant issue and was extremely noticeable in the earlier stages of the pandemic when there were even fewer planes in the air. I expect the trends toward a wetter solution this weekend to continue. The question is how much phasing/ cold air is available for non-mountain NC areas. To be determined. I still like the looks of the pattern for next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro folds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Big uptick from 6zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z EURO continues to shift NW , Hammers SW VA/S VA/NW NC with Snow/Sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Will be interesting to see how this continues to trend. Pretty massive changes aloft for the euro 72hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It looks like the euro wants to give me the same exact amount of snow I got in the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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