BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Don’t sleep on the Sunday morning threat. Thermals look good for snow on the gfs/nam for my backyard if the precip shield ticks north Yeah, it's basically just the very bottom layer above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Incoming on the para at 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wonder if the ensembles are having mixing issuesSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro went from a decent storm on Sunday to nothing at all not even rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 There's at least four different threats on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: There's at least four different threats on the GEFS. Feb 6-7? Feb 10-11? Feb 13-14? The fourth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS, para GFS, and the GEFS are a thing of beauty. Going to be a long 10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The temperature trend on Euro for early next week is mind boggling. Less than 48 hours ago most of us in the freezer. Today’s middle 60s. Hard to trust any model at the moment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Middle 60s Tuesday and Wednesday and near 60 Monday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I believe the GFS was the first one to pick up on the storm we had around here on Jan 28. Euro appears to be going from one extreme to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Doesnt look like much ensemble support for snow as far south as the 12z GFS had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: There's at least four different threats on the GEFS. And 0 threats on the Op Euro unless that mess to the south on day 10 gets organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Dry for most of NC on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: And 0 threats on the Op Euro unless that mess to the south on day 10 gets organized It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Dry for most of NC on Euro One could say they don’t trust the GFS but then after what the euro just did this weekend it’s a complete crapshoot IMO. Idk what to think anymore with this model mayhem. Unless it’s within 4 days it’s not credible anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ninja'ed, was coming in here to post that. lol 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, burrel2 said: It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then. We'll see the models are having a hard time right now with 5 to 7 day forecasts much less 8 to 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now. If we can hold the general evolution of the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now. If we can hold the general evolution of the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months) The reason for the pessimism is because once we get another day or 2 from now , it will continue to be an "8-10" day threat... thats why folks are on the edge 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The good thing is the 11th-13th timeframe has been popping up with storms on some model runs the past few days. It does appear to be a period with a strong storm signal at this point. But I don't want to kick the can down the road any longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The good things about the current 8-10 day threat, imo. based off the model evolutions... if anything we need to Canadian vortex to kick east quicker than what the euro shows. It hangs out over the Great Lakes for a while and makes it difficult for the energy ejecting in the southern stream to get out of the deep gulf. As a result of this look we have plenty of room to work with on temperatures... If it plays out like typical I expect the Canadian vortex to trend weaker and eject East faster, which should allow for more southern stream amplification. But with the orientation of the ridging if it does trend that way we should have a perfectly located mega high pressure in damming position with very cold dry air in place. To be clear, a quicker ejecting vortex would typically mean retreating cold air... but in this case it’ll mean a better high pressure placement while still having arctic sourced air, so it may be a good thing. (Also of note the vortex is ejecting in a south eastward trajectory thanks to the blocking which really is what makes this set up so good, if it just pushed northeast back towards the pole it would mean a more typical crummy set up). as such, the goal post are very wide right now for a winter storm in that timeframe. I worry more about suppression right now... and if the last weeks trends are any indication we will probably see things shift north and more relaxed, placing us right in the crosshairs of a major winter storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 FYI, the 192hr jma panel looks incredible. Snow breaking kit in Ark/Texas/la region with a low forming in the deep gulf and plenty of room to amplify as it shifts East and a sprawling high pressure building in to prefect position. It’s honestly about the perfect map and you couldn’t draw it up much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Control run has a...snowstorm for the entirety of the Carolinas. All of us, down to the GA/SC line by Savannah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Control run has a...snowstorm for the entirety of the Carolinas. All of us, down to the GA/SC line by Savannah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: FYI, the 192hr jma panel looks incredible. Snow breaking kit in Ark/Texas/la region with a low forming in the deep gulf and plenty of room to amplify as it shifts East and a sprawling high pressure building in to prefect position. It’s honestly about the perfect map and you couldn’t draw it up much better. Yes sir, not sure I've seen one of those modeled in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 This looks a lot like the GFS run with the heaviest axis of snow in the same location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, snowbird1230 said: On 1/26/2021 at 9:06 PM, Avdave said: Don't mean to bust any bubbles..but let's not forget the NW trend! With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Yeah, I'd be more worried about this washing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The reason for the pessimism is because once we get another day or 2 from now , it will continue to be an "8-10" day threat... thats why folks are on the edge Can’t go much longer with the 8-10 day range threats staying that far out. We’re literally running out of winter unless we want to add sun angle and poor climatology to the list of factors working against us. Has the now or never feel this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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