BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looks like the Euro folded last night unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like the Euro folded last night unfortunately There's snow in the carolinas on day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: There's snow in the carolinas on day 7. Also has a snowstorm for savannah ga and an ice storm to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of its run so does say cold is coming, but once again, delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Also has a snowstorm for savannah ga and an ice storm to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of its run so does say cold is coming, but once again, delayed The cold has been 7-9 days away every day since Thanksgiving. I said that Saturday but got blasted. Not trying to be pessimistic, I wish it would snow as much as the next person but I’ll believe the pattern when I see it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS says the 13th~15th Might look interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The cold has been 7-9 days away every day since Thanksgiving. I said that Saturday but got blasted. Not trying to be pessimistic, I wish it would snow as much as the next person but I’ll believe the pattern when I see it. Yep. Par for the course here. Pretty crazy to go from a high below freezing on Monday to a high in the 50’s. Hell the low on Monday may not even get below freezing. GFS is special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ya’ll are having a lot of cliff diving mood swings with each model run in here There’s a lot of flying energy and the models always struggle when there’s a pattern change. So just breathe deeply, relax and remember we’re all wanting the same thing as we watch it unfold. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 DT was saying last night how the GFS was horrible and the GEFS went towards the Euro for the weekend and then the 0Z EURO came out and he didn't say anything lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 What is the first rule of a major pattern change showing up on the models? it’s almost always too quick. We’ve got a lot of people who didn’t learn the fundamentals. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: DT was saying last night how the GFS was horrible and the GEFS went towards the Euro for the weekend and then the 0Z EURO came out and he didn't say anything lol I’m sorry but That Guy is a complete Moron. In my 7yrs of lurking here I don’t think there’s been but maybe 1 storm he’s even been remotely close on lol I’d rather have my German Shepherd draw a Snow map. As BullCity and others have touched on, did we really expect the fantasy storms/Cold to stay locked in for a week straight? Just relax , I’d bet money it ends up somewhere in the middle by Tomm nights runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, PantherJustin said: I’m sorry but That Guy is a complete Moron. In my 7yrs of lurking here I don’t think there’s been but maybe 1 storm he’s even been remotely close on lol I’d rather have my German Shepherd draw a Snow map I've got a German Shepherd to. Best dogs man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I’m sorry but That Guy is a complete Moron. In my 7yrs of lurking here I don’t think there’s been but maybe 1 storm he’s even been remotely close on lol I’d rather have my German Shepherd draw a Snow map. As BullCity and others have touched on, did we really expect the fantasy storms/Cold to stay locked in for a week straight? Just relax , I’d bet money it ends up somewhere in the middle by Tomm nights runs Yeah, some of the Twitter mets people on here hug constantly are rarely right and don't say anything people on here aren't saying. It's model hugging as entertainment instead of actual forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 FWIW the 84 HR NAM looks interesting at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Lmao, I applaud the end of the 00z EURO for basically showing December 1989 part two at the end of the run, an event so near and dear to my heart that the date is my phone's lock code. I mean that with no hyperbole- it's basically its synoptic twin. Guys, i don't know if the threats in the next couple of days will pan out, but have solace knowing that this window probably isn't closing anytime soon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Lmao, I applaud the end of the 00z EURO for basically showing December 1989 part two at the end of the run, an event so near and dear to my heart that the date is my phone's lock code. I mean that with no hyperbole- it's basically its synoptic twin. Guys, i don't know if the threats in the next couple of days will pan out, but have solace knowing that this window probably isn't closing anytime soon. I was grinning from ear to ear when I saw hours 228 to 240 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Awesomesauce81 said: I was grinning from ear to ear when I saw hours 228 to 240 lol BTW- not exactly out of the conversation! EPS high of 1045 9 days out is pretty spectacular...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Lmao, I applaud the end of the 00z EURO for basically showing December 1989 part two at the end of the run, an event so near and dear to my heart that the date is my phone's lock code. I mean that with no hyperbole- it's basically its synoptic twin. Guys, i don't know if the threats in the next couple of days will pan out, but have solace knowing that this window probably isn't closing anytime soon. Mid 20s and pounding snow in the middle of the day in south georgia. Don't see that every century. Can't imagine what that would yield up this way if the southern stream kicked into gear at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW the 84 HR NAM looks interesting at the end Icon followed suit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Icon followed suit Radically different look though. Much more northern stream and so a stronger storm on the Icon. It gets organized faster, so the cold is able to wrap into the storm compared with other guidence. The NAM, on the other hand, keeps the two pieces separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The GFS is so close on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The GFS is so close on Sunday. The last few runs have trended somewhat favorably within that timeframe. Anything’s possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I had a feeling the SE ridge would make an appearance and it's really trying to stave off the arctic air next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I had a feeling the SE ridge would make an appearance and it's really trying to stave off the arctic are next week. maybe it will help keep stuff from going OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The problem with Sunday is the northern wave with accompanying arctic high has trending slower so it only has marginal in-situ sfc cold air to work with so i think it going limit the snow to higher elevations even if the precip from the southern wave makes it up here. If the northern wave pushed through first it's a different story.. it's all about how fast the HP moves in to determine which southern waves are going to make a big play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The last few runs have trended somewhat favorably within that timeframe. Anything’s possible. No cold air source for Sunday’s system. The issue exists in the mid and upper levels. That trough passing through the GL at that times keeps mid and upper level flow west to East, thus bottling up cold air from infiltrating. Storm track is good but it would need to slow down a lot for anything to happen frozen. Essentially, it would need to phase with that mid level energy or allow it to pass by for us to have any shot of cold air becoming involved. And that would need to be a situation of the storm producing its own cold air in the best case scenario. There is no high to force lower level cold into the area. I hate to say it but Sunday’s system is DOA even if it tracks perfect with the mid and upper levels so screwed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I had a feeling the SE ridge would make an appearance and it's really trying to stave off the arctic air next week. Hopefully it follows the script that it has all season, showing up in medium range and then getting beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 yup, i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Feb 13-15 on the GFS looks like that one wild ensemble run from a couple days ago. Long duration overrunning event capped by the development of a NE GOM low and a 1055 banana high from the MW to the east coast. Sign me up! Only problem is the storm is more than a week away (insert laughs) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I know you guys are likely tired of chasing the LR, but the 2+ day overruning event toward day 9 would be worth the wait for the deep south into the Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Wow said: yup, i'll take it Average HP... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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