StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I’ll be a cynic/realist for a moment — feel free to disagree or call me an ass — we have about 15 days in central/eastern NC. 1) We’ve been in an -NAO regime for 45+ days, that won’t last forever; 2) Late Feb is the new mid-March in the 21st century climate; and 3) Sun Angle(.) Spring cometh despite the weenie protest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Think we can kind of just track this High Pressure that drops down as the -NAO retrogrades to see when our winter storm chances will go up. The temperature anomalies look good during this time. This is for Mon the 8th to Mon the 15th. This is on the GEFS. Hopefully we can see some model consensus and have it hold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’ll be a cynic/realist for a moment — feel free to disagree or call me an ass — we have about 15 days in central/eastern NC. 1) We’ve been in an -NAO regime for 45+ days, that won’t last forever; 2) Late Feb is the new mid-March in the 21st century climate; and 3) Sun Angle(.) Spring cometh despite the weenie protest. I don’t think you’re wrong. It gets tough after Valentine’s Day outside of some anomalously cold events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 42 minutes ago, griteater said: Think we can kind of just track this High Pressure that drops down as the -NAO retrogrades to see when our winter storm chances will go up. The temperature anomalies look good during this time. This is for Mon the 8th to Mon the 15th. This is on the GEFS. Hopefully we can see some model consensus and have it hold. It seems right now the good cold doesn't quite get to our back yard until the end of next week, perhaps Friday. My worry is that anything before that time would end up being pretty marginal temp wise, like we've seen pretty much all January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I don’t think you’re wrong. It gets tough after Valentine’s Day outside of some anomalously cold events. Interestingly enough, at Charlotte, the 4 biggest snowstorms on record each occurred after Valentine's Day (1902, 1927, 2004, 1969)...and 7 of the top 10 since 1900 also occurred after V-Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: It seems right now the good cold doesn't quite get to our back yard until the end of next week, perhaps Friday. My worry is that anything before that time would end up being pretty marginal temp wise, like we've seen pretty much all January. This is my worry as well. The big cold was showing Sunday-Tuesday now it's backed up to the end of the week. The first storm now looks borderline marginal and we keep kicking the can waiting for better cold. I hope it does materialize mid-to-late next week but at this point wouldn't be surprised to find ourselves kicking the can down the road again by this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 FWIW , the locals up here are honking the horn for Sunday's possibility... they must be looking at the EURO and not the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS is trying for Sunday. It's pretty close to something decent for western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 0z GFS is a miss for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW , the locals up here are honking the horn for Sunday's possibility... they must be looking at the EURO and not the GFS lol Too early to call at this point and probably meant to be in the whining post but this is how it feels model hugging atm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is trying for Sunday. It's pretty close to something decent for western areas I'd take that look and bet that it's just wrong on the NW expanse of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: I'd take that look and bet that it's just wrong on the NW expanse of the precip. Yep, going by past model tendencies, this is exactly where we used to want it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Not a bad look, it's just a bit of a late bloomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Not a bad look, it's just a bit of a late bloomer Maybe the ensembles will look good with the OP being close to something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 42 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: This is my worry as well. The big cold was showing Sunday-Tuesday now it's backed up to the end of the week. The first storm now looks borderline marginal and we keep kicking the can waiting for better cold. I hope it does materialize mid-to-late next week but at this point wouldn't be surprised to find ourselves kicking the can down the road again by this weekend. Disappointing yes, but I look at it this way. When models show big cold, the probability of it actually verifying is low. When the models DON'T show big cold, the probability of getting big cold is ABSOLUTELY ZERO. Big cold is a possibility for sometime in February. Will it happen? Probably not. But a small chance is better than a zero chance, which is what we have most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is trying for Sunday. It's pretty close to something decent for western areas This winter it has consistently trended northwest from day 5 and under in most events. I honestly don’t hate where gfs is right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1048 HP on 0z GFS at Hr 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is trying for Sunday. It's pretty close to something decent for western areas Can you please stop with the imby’isms. Everything you say is western this or mountain that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Can you please stop with the imby’isms. Everything you say is western this or mountain that. Chill man it’s gonna be ok 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can you please stop with the imby’isms. Everything you say is western this or mountain that. The whole western part of the state is not in his backyard. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, HKY1894 said: The whole western part of the state is not in his backyard. IMBY by proxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Dallas Rule incoming on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can you please stop with the imby’isms. Everything you say is western this or mountain that. I will stop as soon as you start disecting model runs. And sorry to break it to you but western areas of NC, and VA are part of our forum so it's relevant to more than just mby. If you have other issues with me feel free to PM me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The models have been real accurate this year outside of how many hours? Asking for a friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The UK has some snow Sunday for WESTERN areas up into VA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK has some snow Monday for WESTERN areas up into VA Hope it pans out for my western people! It’s only 6 days away! It could trend better or worse! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEFS mean for the first system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Well, the Euro suppresses the Sunday system and keeps everyone in the 50s and maybe even 60s on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 And we have light rain Tuesday and still above normal Temps ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Man who knows what the next model runs are going to look like after yesterday's runs compared to today. High of 31 and low of 12 for me next Monday now 52 and 29. I just hope the artic air does make it to our neck of the woods the end of next week.Dont need true artic air for good snowstorms around here just a little colder than the systems lately but that has been the key all winter and every winter in the southeast. Like we all know it looks like the moisture is a given like it has been all last year this fall and this winter. Maybe we can get a southern trend instead of all winter storms trending north and the cold air leaving moisture arriving moisture leaving cold returning on one of these next possible (4-5ish) storm systems starting with the one this weekend. Were all due a southern trend this winter hopefully. I would love to have a good old fashion half foot of snow for once like the good old days. But those days seem to be very rare to come by anymore. Still hoping even though very dissapointed today after looking at the models but there is always tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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