SnowDawg Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 So compared to yesterday's runs, what is it that is making that big PV cold blast just slam on its brakes and only deliver a glancing blow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in... not really showing any accumulations. 4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z. And looking at the H5 maps, it was close to a monster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: 4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z There is nothing to complain about with that system other than the fact it’s more than a week out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: 4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z. And looking at the H5 maps, it was close to a monster Yes I see now. The map I was looking at wasn't completely updated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 At least the retrograding block is still shown on all modeling. It would take a real needle threading for us not to get a solid cold outbreak and/or winter storm threats. assuming the mega block evolves as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Storm still tries to blank @Grayman cannot imagine the mental breakdown if that map was correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Also it’s worth noting that the models are depicting a strong retrograding block with a true arctic airmass trapped under it. It’s the first time this year or in several years where we’ve had that happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: 42% U.S. snow coverage this morning. Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains. However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week. Yep extensive in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: There is nothing to complain about with that system other than the fact it’s more than a week out I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile. You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate. This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out. And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard. Somebody would still forget to turn on the water. I'll retreat to the whining thread again. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile. You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate. This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out. And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard. Somebody would still forget to turn on the water. I'll retreat to the whining thread again. It’s like The NC State fans of Weather .... (I’m an Nc State fan I can say this) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I think north of I-40/I-85 is still very much in the game for this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think north of I-40/I-85 is still very much in the game for this weekend. How did the GEFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Storm still tries to blank @Grayman cannot imagine the mental breakdown if that map was correct Lol. It shows me with over a inch. I would take it and run. I’m just live in a area that is always the screw zone. Just have to double up on the meds. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile. You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate. This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out. And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard. Somebody would still forget to turn on the water. I'll retreat to the whining thread again. At least give me credit for the quote! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 No way to hide it, this is a promising look on the GFS Ensemble Mean. Blocking ridge goes up into Greenland...then as it retrogrades southwest into north-central Canada, the westerly flow picks up off the west coast and a split flow wave emerges into California and the 4 corners, and is poised to track west to east underneath the trapped, cold, tropospheric polar vortex lobe over SE Canada 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GEM Ensembles seem to like Sunday quite a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: GEM Ensembles seem to like Sunday quite a bit More cold air for sure but is it's bias showing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro is super close to a good storm here Saturday night. Just barely too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro is close , still drops around 4" here taken verbatim, also some rain with it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 NYC gets hammered again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro is super close to a good storm here Saturday night. Just barely too warm Yeah at hr 114 that low is in a good spot tracking across the gulf coast. You would think with a track similar to this our area would be closer to getting a good storm. I think there's some room for this to trend better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 SE ridge flexing a bit this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NYC gets hammered again lol In the past it feels like it takes a few Noreasters to get a large part of this SE forum in a storm. It just looks so juicy something has to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NYC gets hammered again lol DC too! Not bad for Richmond either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 There's another storm later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro still on board with the second storm. Check out the HP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1059! Get outta town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Trying to understand what differences turned the cold blast into a cold brush at hours where I expected a bit more consistency from the models lol. Does this baja low on the 12z yesterday contribute to the higher heights in the western US, and thus forcing the cold further south? That feature is cometely gone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Bottom line seems to be this..... the active storm track will continue, and there will be lots of cold air involved in the pattern across eastern North America. For the Carolinas/ Virginia, there seems to be 3 impulses to monitor in the active storm track. 1) Late Saturday/ early Sunday 2) Tuesday-ish (that was the big storm on the Euro on yesterday's runs) 3) Late next work week. I fully believe any of those are fair game to amplify in the 'right' way to give some on this forum some fun and games. All of them probably won't, but any of the 3 are possibilities. And this is the classic case of it probably taking til the 11th hour to get the right idea as to the amount of interaction/ phasing each one will have. 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 If we don’t score with the retrograding block and coldest air in the northern hemisphere trapped under it for a week or longer then I give up! You literally can not dream of a better situation than this. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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