ILMRoss Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out. GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all. High temps above freezing. I don't have access to Euro for comparison.Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 hours ago, griteater said: Or are you talking about the mid week system? Too many to track lol Lol, we may need separate threads to track possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 59 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify. In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 in my opinion we don't need true artic air it is dry and squashes systems. Cold air is good just not true artic air in my opinion. Guess the cold where its said its to cold to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least, I agree but if you want snow that sticks and is actually fun to go out and play in, you need colder temperatures. The last 2 snows I've had (last week and February 2020) were snow falling with surface temperatures around 34 and it stuck, but it was so wet and sloppy and disappeared in 4-5 hours. I know that falling snow and snow accumulation can help moderate surface temps, but highs in the mid to upper 30s isn't going to cut it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 How did the 6z EPS look for Sunday? Anyone want to touch on it? Nevermind, Ninj'd by BullCity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 26/49 EPS members at Chapel Hill have measurable snow on Sunday. 29/49 at Roxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify. My theory on that is it has a lot to do with snow cover. The snow never materialized, which makes 5-10 degrees difference. And add another 5 degrees for the models overdoing the effect of snow cover and you get a pretty good swing. On top of that I think the models often don't key in on how much the airmass moderates crossing the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 26/49 EPS members at Chapel Hill have measurable snow on Sunday. 29/49 at Roxboro. An increase of 5 at TDF and 2 at IGX from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 42% U.S. snow coverage this morning. Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains. However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: 42% U.S. snow coverage this morning. Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains. However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week. This is certainly not accurate for most of NC and the southern tier of VA. That snow got washed away and melted shortly after impact. Maybe a few piles left around in the NC snow capital of Roxboro, but that will be gone by today/tomorrow too. Bring on the polar vortex and let it all freeze solid. Then catch a southern slider or Miller A on the retreat. That way everything is frozen and we get maximum accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday. 1005 eh? Is that what you'd call a baggy low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday. Stupid question maybe but why is there a gap between the rain and snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday. Hope that doesn’t mean it’s about to get over amped and jet up the Apps by Fridays runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It's more organized and wetter but wayyyyy too warm. We are looking at temps in the 40s on Monday now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: It's more organized and wetter but wayyyyy too warm. We are looking at temps in the 40s on Monday now. Per what model?--gfs? Maybe. Not the euro I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS with a snowstorm for NC next Wed/Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, CaryWx said: Per what model?--gfs? Maybe. Not the euro I don't think 12Z GFS shows a 1PM temp of 43 on Monday. for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: GFS with a snowstorm for NC next Wed/Thurs A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in... not really showing any accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in... not really showing any accumulations. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: ??? I got nothing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It's 26 at RDU during that timestamp FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's 26 at RDU during that timestamp FYI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Right I see that. But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake). The system is gone 6 hours later. So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential. The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Right I see that. But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake). The system is gone 6 hours later. So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential. The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it. The model shows 4+ inches from Durham county - east. I don't know what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS accumulations for the event late next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 That's odd. The tropical tidbits page doesn't show that at all. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: That's odd. The tropical tidbits page doesn't show that at all. Good stuff. tT runs behind update snowfall totals. Check your hours when you click to total snowfall. This also has some freezing rain on the front in south of RDU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like some decent chances after the 14th as well if the LR is to be believed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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