wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, griteater said: Without a doubt. The hope is Miller A, but think Miller B is the bigger threat (if something does in fact work out) That was my thoughts too especially for piedmont and upstate areas. Mountain areas may do well either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 32 minutes ago, griteater said: Without a doubt. The hope is Miller A, but think Miller B is the bigger threat (if something does in fact work out) Grit I've got a question. I was born in 70. Maybe it's just child romanticism but was there not times in the 70's & early 80's when it was cold coast to coast? ( Except maybe SoCal or S Fla) Say 77, 79, & Christmas 82? If so what were those indicies that allowed it to be cold continental 48? And can we not have those setups now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, Grayman said: Does anybody know anything about Pow weather? Saw a interesting YouTube video about how favorable the MJO is going to be the 2nd week of February. I don’t know anything about him but his videos on YouTube . Any opinions on MJO? I’m reading up but truly do not understand it. The core concept with the MJO that is of most interest to us deals with the location of enhanced convection (thunderstorm activity) in the tropics. In a nutshell, enhanced tropical convection from the Eastern Indian Ocean, across Indonesia, and into the Western Pacific is La Nina-like and tends to favor +EPO and -PNA patterns (this is MJO Phases 3-4-5-6). Enhanced tropical convection (or related upper level patterns) outside of those regions from the Central Pacific > Eastern Pacific > Atlantic is El Nino-like and tends to favor +PNA patterns (this is MJO Phases 7-8-1-2). The pattern associated with each MJO phase can vary some at different times of the winter. Currently, the convection in Indonesia and the Western Pacific has calmed down, so it's better than it has been, and may be why we are seeing the improved ridging in the NE Pacific and up thru Alaska, but I don't think we are going to see the MJO make a circuit thru the El Nino like phases (7-8-1-2) anytime soon based on what I see and read. Take a look at this blog article which gives a good summary about how the location of tropical convection affects weather patterns - https://blog.timesunion.com/weather/how-el-nino-influences-our-weather/1247/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: Grit I've got a question. I was born in 70. Maybe it's just child romanticism but was there not times in the 70's & early 80's when it was cold coast to coast? ( Except maybe SoCal or S Fla) Say 77, 79, & Christmas 82? If so what were those indicies that allowed it to be cold continental 48? And can we not have rose setups now? '79 was similar to the period we have coming up, -PNA / -NAO. I did some stats a few years ago and that winter had twice as much wintry precip in Charlotte compared to any other winter back to 1970 (combined snow and ice, not just snow alone). But yes, -PNA / -NAO (some -EPO as well) would be the way to get the full lower 48 cold. 1970 and 1977 were both +PNA with -AO / -NAO (Weak El Ninos)....we haven't had this type of pattern in our recent Weak El Ninos (climate change related??) Yeah that 60's to 70's period simply had some cold patterns in a colder era. Climate change may have some affect on how common it is these days for those types of patterns to setup 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wasn’t January 2018’s Polar Vortex coast to coast epic cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 That’s a nice looking suppressed pattern on the GFS for Sunday. Low comes out of the NE Gulf but fails to throw precip back into the cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just saw that. It’s still early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 That’s a nice looking suppressed pattern on the GFS for Sunday. Low comes out of the NE Gulf but fails to throw precip back into the cold air Pretty great look 6 days out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I have been doing a little personal project to keep tabs on the GEFS ensemble mean temperature forecast for my area, using the maps available o Tropical Tidbits. I am using this data point in the "Eastern U.S." region view, as it is closest to me. I am keeping a running log of the 2m temp forecast at 18Z (1 PM) day by day. I just noted very large swing to cold in the long in the day 6 - 16 period between the Jan 31 18Z forecast and the Feb 1 18Z forecast. Of particular note is the Feb 10 - 13 period. Direct comparison is shown below. Jan 31 18Z Feb 1 18Z Delta Feb 10 54 32 -22 Feb 11 65 35 -30 Feb 12 67 29 -38 Feb 13 71 39 -32 Overall, the average forecast 2m Temperature for 18Z dropped by 11 °F in the Day 6 - 10 period and by 17.5 °F for the Day 11 - 15 period. Here is a graph It should go without saying that this forecast will probably moderate but I thought it was a significant signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, btownheel said: Pretty great look 6 days out. CMC has a nearly identical look for Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 CMC has two close calls / weak hits then a huge cold pattern settling in across the lower 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 @griteater 00 Gfs looks like major ice storm for Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grayman said: @griteater 00 Gfs looks like major ice storm for Northern NC Has a big storm late next week, but it ends up cutting (too warm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Or are you talking about the mid week system? Too many to track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Has a big storm late next week, but it ends up cutting (too warm) 1 minute ago, griteater said: Or are you talking about the mid week system? Too many to track lol Yes sir. Mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 FWIW. , the Para looks better for Sunday. Some light snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Lord help we should score something out of the next 10 days. Lots of potential. Just glad we have cold air at least close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, griteater said: That’s a nice looking suppressed pattern on the GFS for Sunday. Low comes out of the NE Gulf but fails to throw precip back into the cold air This far out, i can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Incoming on the Para for the system after Super Bowl Sunday... Monster Winter Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Snow Depth 0z GFS Para for the system after Super Bowl Sunday. A good chunk of this is ICE in NC/SCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I know it's still a ways out but good to see some signals out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Snow Depth 0z GFS Para for the system after Super Bowl Sunday. A good chunk of this is ICE in NC/SC Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I’m not getting the same thing. Is that Sunday’s storm or are you including the Wednesday Thursday storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Incoming on the Para for the system after Super Bowl Sunday... Monster Winter Storm Yep significant CAD storm with ice down into NE GA next Thurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Grayman said: I’m not getting the same thing. Is that Sunday’s storm or are you including the Wednesday Thursday storm too The system after Super Bowl Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The system after Super Bowl Sunday Yes. Huge storm . I read you post wrong. I was like what did I do. Freezing rain Over 2 inches in southern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Good signs all around thus far. Really hope we can get a bit better shot of cold behind the weekend system to have a better chance of snow mid week vs a sloppy icy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 hours ago, benjammin said: Anyone on this board around to remember the February 1973 blizzard that dumped 2 feet of snow in some parts of South Carolina and snow from Florida to Va Beach? It must have been epic. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow Yes, Lived in Fayettnam at the time.. I was about 10.. Had a 1/2 mile street too sled down on,, never forget it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 you would think with all the cold , more cold next week than we've seen in years we could finally eek out a true Miller A on next weeks system. No cutters please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out. GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all. High temps above freezing. I don't have access to Euro for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out. GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all. High temps above freezing. I don't have access to Euro for comparison. GFS went from the coldest in years -3 in Asheville to not even coldest of the season 16. Not that I care if it is that cold, but I do want it cold enough to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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