Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[FLweather]

1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said:

RAH is unimpressed as of 0315 this morning. Does everyone agree with them now that they've had more models to review?


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

At the beginning of the extended forecast, an upper level low will
be near Chicago, with a surface low slightly south of the upper low.
The upper low will weaken as it shifts southeast. Meanwhile, the
surface low over the Midwest will fill as Miller B cyclogenesis
develops near the Carolinas, with a surface low somewhere off the
Norfolk coast by Monday morning.

By Sunday morning have removed any mention of snow from the
forecast, as it appears that the maximum temperature in the column
should be warm enough to melt any falling snow, so have simply gone
with rain or freezing rain around sunrise. By mid morning all
locations should have surface temperatures rise above freezing, and
precipitation should fall as rain for the rest of the day. There
will be a fair gradient in temperatures across the forecast area,
with the Triad remaining in the upper 30s while southern counties
will likely push into the 50s. The development of the coastal low
appears to be slightly farther east in the 00Z model runs than
previous runs, which should keep the bulk of Sunday night`s
precipitation a bit farther east. Still have likely pops primarily
to the east of I-95, where precipitation would fall as all rain.
However, any precipitation making its way into central North
Carolina from the decaying inland low should have enough cold air
that a slight chance of freezing rain or snow cannot be ruled out.

As the upper low continues tracking to the east, have put slight
chance pops back into the forecast on Monday to better collaborate
with neighboring offices, although the most widespread precipitation
will have already fallen the day before. A slight chance of
rain/snow will remain in the forecast Monday night, primarily north
and east of Raleigh. With both the upper and surface lows east of
the region by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will come to an end
with clearing skies Tuesday. Skies will remain clear Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday night and Thursday
in advance of the next system. Temperatures will start the period
below normal and finally rise back to normal values by Thursday.

Hey how much did y'all get in Person county with the last storm?

[Buddy1987]

That meso high that is showing up on some of the models is reinforcing the low level cold air. That needs to be watched closely for areas that are on the fence or are borderline upon start time.

[BornAgain13]

UKMET a solid 6-10" for @Buddy1987 , 4-6" here,  taken verbatim

[BornAgain13]

Awaiting Dr. No

[Ghicks]

will see if northern foothills get jumped again. lol 

[PantherJustin]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

31.5 here

36 here in Mooresville 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

28.5 here currently after bottoming out at 14 this morning and it feels about like 60 without the 50 mph winds we had yesterday. 

[BornAgain13]

The ground will be much colder for this storm coming in... whatever falls will stick 

[tarheelwx]

33.8 with some snow still lying around in the shade.

TW

[hickory]

So I live between Reidsville and Greensboro. Not trying to ask a imby question, but wondering how to prepare. At this point in time is it likely for the northwest Piedmont too see an ice storm? Just would like to be ahead of the curve. Anyways I very much appreciate everyone who contributes to this forum. 

[BullCityWx]

24 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Hey how much did y'all get in Person county with the last storm?

I saw a guy in the discusion thread say he got 5". I think he was in the Timberlake or S. Roxboro area. 

[BullCityWx]

Through Hour 48. 

[BullCityWx]

I hate to say it but I am beginning to believe I was right about my gut feeling about this storm earlier this week. It's an absolute non-event for 90% of North Carolinians and that might even be creeping into the border counties of VA. Pretty much the only model currently showing a significant event for us is the RGEM. 

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

I hate to say it but I am beginning to believe I was right about my gut feeling about this storm earlier this week. It's an absolute non-event for 90% of North Carolinians and that might even be creeping into the border counties of VA. Pretty much the only model currently showing a significant event for us is the RGEM. 

I should qualify that with I think we actually have a better than average snow on the back side of this event. 

[Buddy1987]

Ukie looks good! @BornAgain13 hopefully you can cash in before flipping.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Ukie looks good! @BornAgain13 hopefully you can cash in before flipping.

There's something off about those maps. It has to be including everything frozen/freezing. The maps on F5 look nothing like that.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, BullCityWx said:

There's something off about those maps. It has to be including everything frozen/freezing. The maps on F5 look nothing like that.

Hmm.. that’s interesting..

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

What do you see back-side Bull City for the Bull City?  Are you talking Monday evening or so?  There is a shot at a dusting tomorrow evening that saw earlier.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

What do you see back-side Bull City for the Bull City?  Are you talking Monday evening or so?  There is a shot at a dusting tomorrow evening that saw earlier.

Yeah, it looks like it actually backs into the northern areas of the triangle and triad. 

[jtgus]

21 minutes ago, hickory said:

So I live between Reidsville and Greensboro. Not trying to ask a imby question, but wondering how to prepare. At this point in time is it likely for the northwest Piedmont too see an ice storm? Just would like to be ahead of the curve. Anyways I very much appreciate everyone who contributes to this forum. 

Have you always lived there? I grew up in Brown Summit

[Berlin1926]

53 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Hey how much did y'all get in Person county with the last storm?

Pleasantly surprised... we had 4" -- friends over north of Oxford, about 15 miles due east had 6".  

[hickory]

5 minutes ago, jtgus said:

Have you always lived there? I grew up in Brown Summit

Yes sir! Born in 1983 on the eastern edge of Brown Summit  at the intersection of Osceola-Ossippe Rd and High Rock Rd. Other than living in Hawaii 5 years and deployed overseas to support the war effort. 

[wncsnow]

Nail in the coffin?

[PackGrad05]

I don't get worked up with those temperature outlooks.  
It only takes 1-2 days of cold and moisture to link up to get something.  We just had a decent little system for a good number of folks here.  I'm sure it'll happen again, if not this weekend, then sometime in Feb.  

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I don't buy into those temperature outlooks.  
It only takes 1-2 days of cold and moisture to link up to get something.  We just had a decent little system for a good number of folks here.  I'm sure it'll happen again, if not this weekend, then sometime in Feb.  

It does only take one storm but it certainly appears the cold is going to dump into the west and northern Rockies and the SE will be dealing with pesky ridging which is common in Ninas. 

[benjammin]

Not so fast...?

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[wncsnow]

Euro still looks the same

[griteater]

The Euro run

[BornAgain13]

Euro went north from 0z slightly 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Euro run

The key here is if we can get enough heavy precip in with the WAA before it switches over to ZR or rain.