magpiemaniac Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm. I just looked at that. Some areas wouldn’t have power until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z gfs also coming in colder. You can see the dip in the isobars to the southwest with precip incoming and over the area. Bend hand toward southwestern SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. Yeah even a quarter of what that shows is ice storm warning criteria for almost everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The CAD, even if in-situ,should be pretty significant in the NW NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS coming in colder. Starting to cave towards EURO , snow hammers @Buddy1987 , with the axis of the heavy stuff more southeast this run than 0z... but still the heaviest is Roanoke to Lynchburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Goodness!!!! Let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFS with an absolute clobbering for central VA Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Goodness!!!! Let’s go! im out of that ice and i'm glad for that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @Buddy1987 how you feeling man? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The biggest difference I can find in the GFS and the RGEM is the high pressure is much, much further north on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. I agree it definitely runs colder, and sometimes by a lot. At the very least, it seems to run 2-4°F too cold on average. RGEM forecast low for tonight here is 15, which is 6 degrees cooler than the NWS forecast and around 10 degrees cooler than all other models except the Canadian. I have a hard time believing we get to 15 here, but we shall see… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987 how you feeling man? Lol I feel good!! I talked with Disc last night about it. He seemed to feel pretty good as well. We are always worried about some sneaky warm layer but based on most guidance we remain all snow until precip is basically getting ready to shut off and we get dryslotted. I would feel good saying 8-12” for ROA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I feel good!! I talked with Disc last night about it. He seemed to feel pretty good as well. We are always worried about some sneaky warm layer but based on most guidance we remain all snow until precip is basically getting ready to shut off and we get dryslotted. I would feel good saying 8-12” for ROA right now. I agree with that number. I'm hoping for 2-4 here before it changes to ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Canadian with another slight push south with the wedge. Little more pronounced and temps colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The CMC is very identical with its counterpart the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The CMC with an area of 2.77" of ZR NW of Raleigh, no way that happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Canadian with another slight push south with the wedge. Little more pronounced and temps colder this run. Any further push south would be great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure about the accuracy of these short range models but freezing rain is pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: Not sure about the accuracy of these short range models but freezing rain is pretty far south. I saw that myself and I've done this dance before. It wouldnt shock me to see that be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I dont think this is a cold bias sort of situation with the canadian, it is simply holding the damming in longer than the other modelling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: I dont think this is a cold bias sort of situation with the canadian, it is simply holding the damming in longer than the other modelling. Agreed... I feel the globals are headed towards those solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's not even that cold here today, up to 43 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm. That run looks funny to me. 3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice. Looking at Nam & Wrf. The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm. One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south. So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va. 6z Nam did have a secondary in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, FLweather said: That run looks funny to me. 3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice. Looking at Nam & Wrf. The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm. One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south. So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va. 6z Nam did have a secondary in VA. It's way, way too much QPF but even if you take a quarter of that, it's nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The UK did trend a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK did trend a bit colder Been the theme of the day so far. Not surprising for a CAD event getting within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RAH is unimpressed as of 0315 this morning. Does everyone agree with them now that they've had more models to review? .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... At the beginning of the extended forecast, an upper level low will be near Chicago, with a surface low slightly south of the upper low. The upper low will weaken as it shifts southeast. Meanwhile, the surface low over the Midwest will fill as Miller B cyclogenesis develops near the Carolinas, with a surface low somewhere off the Norfolk coast by Monday morning. By Sunday morning have removed any mention of snow from the forecast, as it appears that the maximum temperature in the column should be warm enough to melt any falling snow, so have simply gone with rain or freezing rain around sunrise. By mid morning all locations should have surface temperatures rise above freezing, and precipitation should fall as rain for the rest of the day. There will be a fair gradient in temperatures across the forecast area, with the Triad remaining in the upper 30s while southern counties will likely push into the 50s. The development of the coastal low appears to be slightly farther east in the 00Z model runs than previous runs, which should keep the bulk of Sunday night`s precipitation a bit farther east. Still have likely pops primarily to the east of I-95, where precipitation would fall as all rain. However, any precipitation making its way into central North Carolina from the decaying inland low should have enough cold air that a slight chance of freezing rain or snow cannot be ruled out. As the upper low continues tracking to the east, have put slight chance pops back into the forecast on Monday to better collaborate with neighboring offices, although the most widespread precipitation will have already fallen the day before. A slight chance of rain/snow will remain in the forecast Monday night, primarily north and east of Raleigh. With both the upper and surface lows east of the region by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will come to an end with clearing skies Tuesday. Skies will remain clear Tuesday night and Wednesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday night and Thursday in advance of the next system. Temperatures will start the period below normal and finally rise back to normal values by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's not even that cold here today, up to 43 already. 31.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: It's way, way too much QPF but even if you take a quarter of that, it's nasty. The other RGEM difference appears to be the primary surface low is farther SW in extreme southern Indiana at hour 57 than other models. It transfers a secondary in SC at hour 60 versus all the other guidance going Ohio to off the coast of OBX. This makes the NC experience colder, while heavy precip is still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's not even that cold here today, up to 43 already. Dang that is a big difference hasn’t even cracked 30 yet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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