wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 More of a nuisance event on the NAM for most of NC except for far NW corner and higher elevations on the Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Keep in mind places with accrual are barely cold enough so it wouldn't be this much. Poor run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sleet line almost to DC by hour 72 on the NAM FWIW. Noticeably north from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: More of a nuisance event on the NAM for most of NC except for far NW corner and higher elevations on the Blue Ridge Not because it’s not to my liking but it’s the 60hr Nam. Take it with caution. Euro has more or less been in lock step with the overall Synoptics and placement of primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3k NAM has me around 26 with precip rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Not because it’s not to my liking but it’s the 60hr Nam. Take it with caution. Euro has more or less been in lock step with the overall Synoptics and placement of primary. Yeah man , just comparing the EURO/NAM for your area , you go from around 10"+ down to 0 with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah man , just comparing the EURO/NAM for your area , you go from around 10"+ down to 0 with the NAM Unless guidance does a complete 180 I take this run with a grain of salt. Hey maybe it’s right but I would be willing to wager. Nam has become quite a garbage model as of late IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Stronger high notes on the 3k vs 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The hi res NAM just doesn't have much heavy precip. Very splotchy with the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Great example would be this most recent system we had last night. Nam was paltry, dry and didn’t even have a beat on anything until about 24 hours before and then came around to other guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Great example would be this most recent system we had last night. Nam was paltry, dry and didn’t even have a beat on anything until about 24 hours before and then came around to other guidance. NAM has a dry bias now actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Crazy how these models go from one model run to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RDPS looks similar just a tad warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: RDPS looks similar just a tad warmer Yeah very subtle differences ... moved the more significant snow slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Icon is a good thump at hr 60 for nc/va border north. Much more in line with global models. American vs European Rocky vs Drago Icon has been surprisingly rock solid itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Icon at 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Icon at 60 Puts wncsnow and I in some heavy snow there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RDPS looks similar just a tad warmer RDPS implies a large wedge down toward the triangle. Looked at 2m temps and they are borderline down that way around 32-33 but with that wedge could easily trend toward ice. Sleet line is up toward Bornagain but overall a nice run to have it spit out some wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Puts wncsnow and I in some heavy snow there too. Not really known for its cad by any means lol but face value it does look colder than its 18z counterpart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Puts wncsnow and I in some heavy snow there too. Surface temps at hour 60. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think this mainly comes down to a temperature forecast cause the models are throwing the warm advection precip right at us for the most part. Not sure how the temps will trend between now and Sunday, but they probably aren't going to change too much. Here is the precip swath on the Euro and RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: RDPS implies a large wedge down toward the triangle. Looked at 2m temps and they are borderline down that way around 32-33 but with that wedge could easily trend toward ice. Sleet line is up toward Bornagain but overall a nice run to have it spit out some wintry weather. I will take what I can get here after the past 25 months. If it's an inch or 2 of snow and sleet and crusty glaze on top I would be happy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I think this mainly comes down to a temperature forecast cause the models are throwing the warm advection precip right at us for the most part. Not sure how the temps will trend between now and Sunday, but they probably aren't going to change too much. Here is the precip swath on the Euro and RGEM Hoping not in the snow hole again next to the blueridge and at nc va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ghicks said: 6 minutes ago, griteater said: I think this mainly comes down to a temperature forecast cause the models are throwing the warm advection precip right at us for the most part. Not sure how the temps will trend between now and Sunday, but they probably aren't going to change too much. Here is the precip swath on the Euro and RGEM Hoping not in the snow hole again next to the blueridge and at nc va border I don't think that will be a problem for you this time. No downsloping with the SW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ghicks said: 7 minutes ago, griteater said: I think this mainly comes down to a temperature forecast cause the models are throwing the warm advection precip right at us for the most part. Not sure how the temps will trend between now and Sunday, but they probably aren't going to change too much. Here is the precip swath on the Euro and RGEM Hoping not in the snow hole again next to the blueridge and at nc va border I agree with @wncsnow as well. Gonna have some nice lift and ring out some moisture with this one. We will also have hopefully timed the cold air to the best of our abilities before the fire hose shuts off so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here is the 850mb warm advection (in pink) generating the lift for precip on the GFS...it's the most reliable kind there is IMO...probably not super long in duration though, maybe 9 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Here is the 850mb warm advection (in pink) generating the lift for precip...it's the most reliable kind there is IMO...probably not super long in duration though, maybe 9 hours or so In your opinion what kind of precip do you think we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Here is the 850mb warm advection (in pink) generating the lift for precip on the GFS...it's the most reliable kind there is IMO...probably not super long in duration though, maybe 9 hours or so Grit what’s your gut tell you based off experience? Does the primary make it as far east ala GFS camp or do you feel like a Euro/Ukie and to an extent CMC win out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit what’s your gut tell you based off experience? Does the primary make it as far east ala GFS camp or do you feel like a Euro/Ukie and to an extent CMC win out? Well I'd have to lean away from the GFS against the others, but I don't know that the setup really is going to be all that different in the end. Where you are, it's probably mostly snow, then maybe some sleet as the cold will want to hang in there longer and the precip will be out of there before there is enough time to really scour it out...those are my thoughts on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ghicks said: In your opinion what kind of precip do you think we will see My guess there is snow to sleet to frz rain (a little bit of all)...have to see how the temperatures trend going forward though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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