BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 EPS mean for the Sunday StormSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I would lean toward the NAM at this point. Given thermal profiles Most of these models said I’d be in the 60s today. I’m at 41 degrees currently. I’m getting a foot of snow Thursday morning, dammit. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Look at that lift Image is from 12z GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Most of these models said I’d be in the 60s today. I’m at 41 degrees currently. I’m getting a foot of snow Thursday morning, dammit. The NAM wasn't buying the warm temperatures. It was one of the first models to show the wedge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: The NAM wasn't buying the warm temperatures. It was one of the first models to show the wedge. Yeah, it was running about 18 degrees colder for today than the GFS on Sunday I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like ~5 inches on the HRRR for RDU:I swear, If we get the surprise of all time Thursday followed by a weekend paste job....No way this all verifies. We don’t get nice things like this in the SE . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: I hope you get something this time. You just never know with these things. Thanks man. I’m just too far south to expect much. Lots of jokes from Rockingham people how we are chamber of commerce weather. Either too far south and East most of the time. Then a good ole southern slider comes and too far north and west. Good luck to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 that euro run is one of the most ludicrous model runs i've ever seen in my 11 years of following these things. holy hell 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 These runs set some up for the very rare possibility in the southeast of snow on snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Most of these models said I’d be in the 60s today. I’m at 41 degrees currently. I’m getting a foot of snow Thursday morning, dammit. Check out the temperature gradient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: that euro run is one of the most ludicrous model runs i've ever seen in my 11 years of following these things. holy hell Yeah it's definitely lights out in a large part of North Carolina if that comes to pass, 2002 bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 RAH talking about soil temp issues in January but also mention the fast storm motion and non ideal parent high position: Today`s probabilistic guidance from the GEFS has increased storm total snowfall accumulations quite a bit but EC ENS is a bit more reserved and more realistic looking. There`s a handful of factors that would lend themselves toward lower snow totals. The lack of a strong surface ridge over eastern Canada is concerning and while there is cold air upstream, we`d be much more confident in significant snow totals if the ridge was parked over Ontario vs Manitoba. Secondly, the surface wave rapidly moves out of the area and offshore, really only giving us a good 6 hours of snow potential vs a slower moving system. Surface soil temperatures aren`t overly cold either (40s) but that could be overcome with intense snow rates. Overall given the variety of solutions out there, erring on the lower end of the distribution seems to be prudent at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I agree with everything in the RAH discussion.. I'm going for dusting - 1" for southern wake. Grassy surfaces...melting by afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS and GFSENS are all hell yeah on storm #1 and hell no on storm #2. EC and ECENS are all hell no on storm one and hell yes on storm #2. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: that euro run is one of the most ludicrous model runs i've ever seen in my 11 years of following these things. holy hell The word impressive doesn’t do it justice. Secondary just more or less rots to its demise. It would snow for hours upon hours up this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: GFS and GFSENS are all hell yeah on storm #1 and hell no on storm #2. EC and ECENS are all hell no on storm one and hell yes on storm #2. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It will be a few hours before i can really sit down and see whats going on but i think there's a case to be made 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: that euro run is one of the most ludicrous model runs i've ever seen in my 11 years of following these things. holy hell I think for me the biggest takeaway from today comparing GFS vs Euro is both get the low to central Missouri or so but the confluence and HP is very differently modeled. GFS has a 1032 and Euro has a 1035. That is making all the difference with the cold press. Both also have the meso high that @BullCityWx alluded to earlier that really helps enforce things right before game time. This IMO is our best shot at succeeding with something this winter season thus far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Eric Webb: Nice discussion from NWS RAH earlier today. Agree for most part except regarding the apparent unfavorable sfc high position in the upper midwest. What's being forecast is a typical sfc location for a Miller type A (coastal low) winter storm in NC. https://t.co/kEBUdWtegv #ncwx https://t.co/cusy8hfRSS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, Grayman said: Check out the temperature gradient That 60 is Rutherford County is abut 15 miles to my west. My top was 51.4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z ICON upped totals in the triangle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 18z ICON upped totals in the triangle. not bad a general 3-4" across north central to NE NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Eric Webb @webberweather · 8m There's been a misconception floating around in the Carolinas for a long time that for Miller A winter storms, a parent sfc in the midwest is less favorable than one in Ontario/Quebec. When you actually look at these cases, this isn't true. Mar 1927 is yet another classic example 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The GFS and para GFS isn't budging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ok i'm back. 6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z GFS and GFS v16 sticking to their guns. Another big hit for central NC Wed into Thurs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The difference between the GFS suite and other models is laughable. Its spitting out over 1 inch of QPF while the nam has less than .2 for most of the same area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The trend is our friend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Think a lot of people on here are going to like the 18z GFS... and v16... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The trend is our friend Finally... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 What a shellacking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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