magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: This is the craziest thing I've seen. (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life). Local meteorologists must be going crazy.... You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc... Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that. It seems highly unlikely that what the latest GFS is spitting out will verify for middle Tennessee, so I’m having trouble being sold on this for our side of the Apps. I might get 1” at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Somebody in the Raleigh area needs to start the thread. Pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Ukie still looks promising for the weekend Need this to trend south by ~100m. Just a 20mile per day shift will do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Justicebork said: Somebody in the Raleigh area needs to start the thread. Pronto. No. No. No. Please no. Keep it here. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Justicebork said: Somebody in the Raleigh area needs to start the thread. Pronto. Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs. Let's see who bites where. Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs. Let's who bites where. Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation If the 12z Euro got on board, a thread would make sense maybe. Otherwise, I’m thinking that the GFS has been hacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Okay, make that the canadian has a major ice/sleet event this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Not even close... We told y’all so. CAD always wins in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 29 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Canadian has our mixed bag weekend storm. Would be lights out for some .8 of ZR with 2" of sleet this way. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: If the 12z Euro got on board, a thread would make sense maybe. Otherwise, I’m thinking that the GFS has been hacked. Russians? I knew it! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z HRRR is on board for more snow than the other models show.... , albeit , less than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 31 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs. Let's see who bites where. Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard This is an event where we could be averaging close to 10:1, especially as 850s cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 With all the time ,money and effort put into predicting the weather, a "surprise" would be disappointing and very cool all at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Next long range HRRR run is at 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Drum roll for the 12z Euro please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 In the words of Gus Johnson March Madness “HEARTBREAK CITY” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The 12z Euro is starting to get the hint. Improved over the 00z. Not for me necessarily, but Greenville, NC will be pleased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah, it isnt awful, it just doesnt have the dynamics the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Yeah, it isnt awful, it just doesnt have the dynamics the GFS has. It’ll clobber us on the next run. It’s a modest model and doesn’t want to appear too eager. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Even though it isnt the GFS, you can clearly see an uptick for the last three runs for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Definitely trended in the right direction. Falling in line with other guidance. Dynamics will make or break this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GEFS has 90-100% for 1"+ in Raleigh and 70-80% for 3" plus. If I was forced to make a call now, I would say something along the lines of 1-3" for Raleigh right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFSENS probability maps are nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited Agree,how many times have we watched the exact opposite happen as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lets see what the Euro has to offer for this weekend. It has shown wintry precip for the past 4 or 5 runs in a row for the 40 corridor to the northern mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I love the mountains and I like the people who live there. But I just want someone in this thread who lives below 1,000 feet to get popped with half a foot of snow this week. It doesn’t have to be me. It’s just that we’ve been so snow starved and I want to experience childlike giddiness through pictures. I’ll settle for vicarious joy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro looking yummy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Plenty cold enough on Euro to start, look at those sub zero readings in NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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