PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 WRAL showing a 15% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. (They just relabeled the map and it is Euro Ensemble output) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: We haven't reached the finish line, but indeed, the GFS was not dead right (posted the above when DC was getting crushed with snow on the GFS). The GFS has actually performed pretty well over the past 10 years with our winter storm threats (as documented in the model performance thread, wherever the heck it is buried). But what I suspect is going on here is that the Euro and UKMet combo are getting back to their glory days a bit this winter (especially the Euro) given the blocky patterns we've seen at times over the North Atlantic / Greenland / Eastern Canada...just think that the Euro is better equipped to handle those setups. As far as this side of the mountains, particularly the Cumberlands, the Canadian Suite has outperformed the others overall this Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 50 minutes ago, griteater said: From NOAA Weekly MJO Update Thanks Grit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 18z GFS was a little more generous with the snow in northeast NC and central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18Z GFS gives me close to 4 inches here. I’ll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS definitely trending in the right direciton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Map?12z EPS for the late weekend storm Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 FWIW , GFS PARA still hanging on to a good hit with the Thursday system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW , GFS PARA still hanging on to a good hit with the Thursday system. I don’t get it. It’s been the most consistent and has refused to budge. Probably will end up the most wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Not bad for the Para for here in the Triangle at least. Its something but Im not hanging my hat on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Matter of fact, the PARA increased snowfall over central NC from the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Matter of fact, the PARA increased snowfall over central NC from the last run. Wish I could trust this, but there isnt going to happen. Even Greg Fishel says it is done here for the most part of any snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NWS Wakefield just put this out on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Avdave said: Wish I could trust this, but there isnt going to happen. Even Greg Fishel says it is done here for the most part of any snows. Ha ha, Bullseye for me at 60hrs. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Overall trends for ***some**** snow have been positive today. The bleeding has stopped, let’s reel this one back in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Avdave said: Wish I could trust this, but there isnt going to happen. Even Greg Fishel says it is done here for the most part of any snows. Where is Greg Fishel hanging out these days? I heard he was in Florida. I miss him badly on WRAL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Overall trends for ***some**** snow have been positive today. The bleeding has stopped, let’s reel this one back in! Not great for us in Winston-Salem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The 3k NAM has 42 degrees for Durham 18z Wednesday. The GFS has us at 58. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: The 3k NAM has 42 degrees for Durham 18z Wednesday. The GFS has us at 58. Yeah, I am thinking that the High Resolution NAM might have a better handle on the thermals than the global GFS would at this range. I'd go with the NAM on this one, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: The 3k NAM has 42 degrees for Durham 18z Wednesday. The GFS has us at 58. The mentioned this is Raleigh forecast discussion about the temps. Said they were using NAm for Tuesday temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up, many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast. There is another common term used here.......wishcasting! From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup. I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one. 2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source? 6" in south Wake? C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up that many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast. There is another common term used here.......wishcasting! From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup. I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one. 2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source? 6" in south Wake? C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby. I don't think anyone here is really believing that at least not in this thread anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night Yeah, I just saw what @Grayman posted regarding the NAM temp forecast. I agree this is a plausible scenario. I'm just not buying it this go round. This has 35 and rain written all over it. Even during the Jan 8th event we ended up 2-3 degrees above forecast here in the triad and only for a brief moment did rates overcome temps. And I think the NAM was off on that one within 24 hours as well, assuming my memory serves me correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up, many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast. There is another common term used here.......wishcasting! From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup. I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one. 2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source? 6" in south Wake? C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby. I don’t think anyone on this board south of VA border expects anything other than token flakes at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up, many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast. There is another common term used here.......wishcasting! From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup. I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one. 2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source? 6" in south Wake? C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby. Gosh man you’re not kidding. I was so all about it a couple nights ago but the models really have put a sour taste in my mouth. I’d be shocked to even see 2” at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Where is Greg Fishel hanging out these days? I heard he was in Florida. I miss him badly on WRAL. Yeah he is in West Palm working for an energy company I believe but he still posts about the wx here once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The 18Z GFS was trying to show something for Feb. 7. Low off the coast and high pressure in a somewhat favorable position, but weak 1030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Yeah, I just saw what @Grayman posted regarding the NAM temp forecast. I agree this is a plausible scenario. I'm just not buying it this go round. This has 35 and rain written all over it. Even during the Jan 8th event we ended up 2-3 degrees above forecast here in the triad and only for a brief moment did rates overcome temps. And I think the NAM was off on that one within 24 hours as well, assuming my memory serves me correctly. This one has been over for me since Friday. They said air mass is way to warm to support big snow but those northern areas could see a brief period of snow As precipitation ends. I was afraid of a weenie attack if I posted that . Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: The 18Z GFS was trying to show something for Feb. 7. Low off the coast and high pressure in a somewhat favorable position, but weak 1030 I saw that. I think the storyline for this winter will be we can’t get the cold in our area. I think Western NC and mountains might score but I’m sticking a fork in winter( at least until I see my next weenie run) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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