Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Lol the 0z nam was a complete dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Guys, I literally don’t think north or south really even matters at this point. It’s dead. What made this event really special was the potential for it to bomb off of the coast and draw a lot of moisture that way. With this speedier trend, not only is the duration cut, but we also completely lose the *magic* for lack of a better word of a sub 990 low off of the coast. For all intents and purposes, we may as well be dealing with a clipper with marginal temperatures. It’s a shame it’s worked out this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Give props to the EURO , it stayed consistent showing a weak storm... and the gfs kept showing high totals , now it's caved to the euro... again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Comparison of 18z vs 00z GFS at same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Offically closing the door on this system. Will have to watch the MJO as mentioned above, but it doesnt look good for our region. Might as well start spring training baseball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 As we all know living in the southeast everything has to be perfect outside of the mountains for a winter storm for us folks in the foothills piedmont triangle eastern nc upstate sc. I'm in the southern foothills. I hate to say it but it sure looks like it's going to take a miracle to get any snow outside of the mountains this year with our time running out. Things can change on a dime around but man am I feeling such a let down with this winter even though it has been colder than last winter by far. I feel all my fellow snow lovers pain. We only have such a short window for snow outside of the mountains around here. Hopefully things can change for us to have a least a chance in feb. I want to throw in the towel but I just can't yet but I sure want to. I really enjoy everyone's insight on hear. Hopefully someone cashes in with this potential storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The models have been especially craptastic in the 5 to 7 day range. That's why I was far from all in when we had "so much model agreement". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The GFSv16 is just playing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'll take some of what v16 is having. Wish it could be true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Having lived most of my 43yrs in NC(Rowan County until 12th grade, now Concord), winter is normally one let down after another. But records show that outside of the high country and foothills, we see an avg of 3-7" depending. About 4-5 imby. Most years that's what adds up. An inch here and there, and usually a storm with great potential starts as snow and then that pesky warm nose turns it into a sleet festival. All that to say , there was no accumulating snow last year where I live. Saw some flakes? Sure. But it stands out because I'm going on 700+ days without seeing the ground white. I will be super shocked to see that happen back to back. There is STILL roughly 40-50 days for all of us to see accumulating snow. I firmly believe we will. I can't read the models, but I can speak from experience. Hang in there. We all know that February and the first 10 days of March are game time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Couldn't have said it better my self @85snowline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para against the world. Wow, I really thought someone from DC to N.C. would get a storm. This thing has sped up and left the cold air behind and also doesn’t allow the low to bomb out and throw all that much precip on its backside. Swing and a miss 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Para against the world. Wow, I really thought someone from DC to N.C. would get a storm. This thing has sped up and left the cold air behind and also doesn’t allow the low to bomb out and throw all that much precip on its backside. Swing and a miss The euro would imply we get at least a little something even if it is just mood flakes driving to work Thursday. The interesting thing about the GFSv16 is it's 10 degrees colder on Wednesday than the current GFS and closely matches the Euro. We'll see if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Having lived most of my 43yrs in NC(Rowan County until 12th grade, now Concord), winter is normally one let down after another. But records show that outside of the high country and foothills, we see an avg of 3-7" depending. About 4-5 imby. Most years that's what adds up. An inch here and there, and usually a storm with great potential starts as snow and then that pesky warm nose turns it into a sleet festival. All that to say , there was no accumulating snow last year where I live. Saw some flakes? Sure. But it stands out because I'm going on 700+ days without seeing the ground white. I will be super shocked to see that happen back to back. There is STILL roughly 40-50 days for all of us to see accumulating snow. I firmly believe we will. I can't read the models, but I can speak from experience. Hang in there. We all know that February and the first 10 days of March are game time!! I think the thing that spoiled me when I moved to N GA (from Florida) in 2004 was the number of years we got snow. To make it worse, Apple loves popping up “memories” of snow. That being said, MOST of those are from mid-late January to Valentines Day - so I hold out hope. I also ignore the GFS... Happy hunting. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Well I have enjoyed this cool dry spell but warmer, wet weather looks to return for the next few weeks at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Here in SENC, I think We've become the *New* Temperate Rain Forest.. Seems like it's raining, 4~5 days, outta a 7 day week,, (Minus the Hurricanes).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 When I see this, I don't for a second think: winter storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNick Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Well I have enjoyed this cool dry spell but warmer, wet weather looks to return for the next few weeks at least. I don’t see much of this warmer weather .. unless you call low 50s warm .. I don’t see anything above 60 for another week and a half and after that who knows what the weather could be like with how volatile the models are... but with this next “storm” it will continue to filter in our cool to cold pattern for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 12z GFS Para and RGEM both are the 2 coldest models for Thursday.... showing accumulating snow for northern NC , Southern VA , are they right? I doubt it but something to watch maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z GFS Para and RGEM both are the 2 coldest models for Thursday.... showing accumulating snow for northern NC , Southern VA , are they right? I doubt it but something to watch maybe It’s the v16 against the world. It’s showing rates overcoming borderline surface temperatures. I’ll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Canadian model went towards the GFS Para. Trends are colder with it. Big snow storm for parts of Central NC and North-Northeast NC. I believe other models will start to show this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z GFS Para and RGEM both are the 2 coldest models for Thursday.... showing accumulating snow for northern NC , Southern VA , are they right? I doubt it but something to watch maybe I hope that this pans out but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Canadian model went towards the GFS Para. Trends are colder with it. Big snow storm for parts of Central NC and North-Northeast NC. I believe other models will start to show this. Just saw that. That is quite interesting if it pans but it does give the other 2 models some street cred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Wow , the CMC/GFS PARA/RGEM teaming up, man I hope this is a trend... would love to see the UK/EURO jump on and then we can just say GFS u stink lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 CMC also shows a snow to ice scenario next Sunday for extreme northern NC , southern VA , something to watch as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The CMC says basically no accumulation north of the NC border. Wow, amazing how this was a MA storm 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The CMC says basically no accumulation north of the NC border. Wow, amazing how this was a MA storm 24 hours ago. Hey now, I'm north of the border and I get 1-2" per the CMC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Hey now, I'm north of the border and I get 1-2" per the CMC lol “Basically” lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains gets more than a dusting with the BL temps and antecedent warm temp/ground temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains gets more than a dusting with the BL temps and antecedent warm temp/ground temps Hey man , have some optimism in your life lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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