BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 NAM is by far the coldest model at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ain’t mad at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: NAM is by far the coldest model at the surface Yep, much better L placement for central NC. The weenie in me doesn't want to let it go even though it looks like rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: NAM is by far the coldest model at the surface You’re right. It’s Tuesday’s highs warmed up a bit compared to yesterday’s NAM runs, but its colder than the other models for this system. The NAM is asking us to not give up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Ain’t mad at it 5h def doesn’t look good IMO tho if you compare it to gfs. Nam has a lot more of a positive tilt although it looks like it’s trying to interact with the tpv some so I’m not sure how that will tie into it. At this point my thoughts kind of have to change here looking at afternoon guidance. Everything hints toward more of a southern solution but giving up strength and energy at the same time. I believe GFS may end up on an island at some point if Euro doesn’t lend some support that way. We used to love to see nam amped if it was gonna be significant or a doozy and I’m not sure if they’ve corrected it since the update happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: You’re right. It’s Tuesday’s highs warmed up a little compared to yesterday’s NAM runs, but its colder than the other models for this system. The NAM is asking us to not give up just yet. I can’t help but chuckle because if I lived in N NC I would be doing the same thing. I love model hugging . Down my way the cut us off early . Lol . Good luck to those close to VA border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, BooneWX said: On the bright side, the pattern isn’t looking quite as bad as advertised coming up. I don’t think we are going to go traditional La Niña Feb torch this winter, but we shall see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The high temperature forecast for Tuesday is going to be really difficult for RDU... Weak CAD signature showing up on NAM... could be a huge temp difference across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hard to figure out Thursday guys and gals... it looks like it's either a storm or bust.... with the wave now on shore or close , should have some good data go into it for the 0z Suites tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Hard to figure out Thursday guys and gals... it looks like it's either a storm or bust.... with the wave now on shore or close , should have some good data go into it for the 0z Suites tonight Yeah, 12z Euro and 18z GFS have been somewhat discouraging but 18z NAM was decent so???? Hopefully we'll have a better understanding by 12z/0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Yeah, 12z Euro and 18z GFS have been somewhat discouraging but 18z NAM was decent so???? Hopefully we'll have a better understanding by 12z/0z tomorrow. I’m pulling for you Virginia folks. I think it will be clearer by Monday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: I don’t think we are going to go traditional La Niña Feb torch this winter, but we shall see Would have had a Torch much of the winter so far had it not been for the blocking. Hopefully, we can maintain that thru Feb. and bonus March. Can u imagine if we'd had a decent PAC Setup.!? Another thing that would sure help Is if the emerging MJO can get into the "nowadays ever so elusive in winter" cold phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The MJO not going there until Feb 15th earliest. I read. That's getting close to winter overtime around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again I've been lurking this board a long time, and this is some funny stuff right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again Is that you Buffalo Bill? Fans of weather we are. Brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Is that you Buffalo Bill? Fans of weather we are. Brilliant! Would you snow on me? I'd snow on me. I'd snow on me soooo hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 42 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The MJO not going there until Feb 15th earliest. I read. That's getting close to winter overtime around here yeah pretty much. You have to worry about sun angle busts at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 45 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The MJO not going there until Feb 15th earliest. I read. That's getting close to winter overtime around here I wish I understood more about the MJO and how to track it etc. I really am just lost about this subject. I read up on it and still just don’t understand. Maybe someone knowledgeable could educate . Do you know what else would be cool? When we have a legit threat we do like a zoom call and discuss. We wouldn’t have many calls lol . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I wish I understood more about the MJO and how to track it etc. I really am just lost about this subject. I read up on it and still just don’t understand. Maybe someone knowledgeable could educate . Do you know what else would be cool? When we have a legit threat we do like a zoom call and discuss. We wouldn’t have many calls lol . In a nutshell (and Eric Webb knows leagues more about this than I do), MJO follows an area of low level convergence (indicated by enhanced thunderstorms) over the Indian Ocean. Thunderstorms release latent heat which can help initiate/build ridges. That ridge can dig a trough downstream, that trough can then build a ridge downstream of it..... you get the idea. Each *phase* is linked to a different area where this convergence is happening, so each phase will make that wave train align a little differently. I know you said you read about this, but I think the literature can be a little too “academic” for laymen to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 We saw some great model runs with this. However, the final *nail* was the speed up today. By the time this storm bombed off the coast, it was too far away for us to reap benefits. I will hope for some token flakes but I will not be staying up until 3AM on Wednesday night to see it, I have things to do! I will not lose hope; over the years seems like every time hope is lost, some sort of event bails is out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'm waiting for the 00Z NAM to finish loading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 00z NAM is colder at the surface than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: We saw some great model runs with this. However, the final *nail* was the speed up today. By the time this storm bombed off the coast, it was too far away for us to reap benefits. I will hope for some token flakes but I will not be staying up until 3AM on Wednesday night to see it, I have things to do! I will not lose hope; over the years seems like every time hope is lost, some sort of event bails is out. Last year was as awful as could be and we still had that late February event so you’re definitely right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Hmm 0Z NAM seems quite a bit south of its 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 0Z NAM was a decent track, but not cold enough except for NE NC on the back end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 00z vs 18z More QPF after this frame, but the trend isn’t good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Didn’t the gfs para 18z show the Triangle with snow or am wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: 00z vs 18z More QPF after this frame, but the trend isn’t good. loller at the contour following the wake county line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Didn’t the gfs para 18z show the Triangle with snow or am wrong here? It did. Showed about 3” for you and 7” for me. It’s on crack. The way things are heading, I’ll be amazed if I see flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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