PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12Z NAM showing a heck of a temperature gradient over central NC on Tuesday with a weak CAD signature. 70s sandhills/south and 40s/50s to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 2:07 PM, BullCityWx said: I think anyone north and west of 40/85 still has a shot right now, especially north of US 70 in that corridor. It’s always fun in this forum when everyone in the forum uses those three as demarcation lines. . I’m exactly 3 miles north of 40/85 and 1 mile north of 70 here on the Alamance/Guilford border. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Way to premature to throw in the towel. Still 3+ days out. If it was showing 1 ft of snow this far out imby I’d in no way feel locked in to that outcome. This is a dynamic system and small deviations in that track could make a huge difference it’s not like the rain snow line is north of DC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 3:29 PM, btownheel said: It’s always fun in this forum when everyone in the forum uses those three as demarcation lines. . I’m exactly 3 miles north of 40/85 and 1 mile north of 70 here on the Alamance/Guilford border. . Expand Honestly, this is sort of an opposite land scenario where N Orange and N Durham might fare better than Guilford and Alamance. We’ll see, I’m just glad to still be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 @_jwall on twitter posted the EPS 6Z ensembles. Roughly 20-22 out of 50 (based on estimation of geography) showed snow/mix for Wake County Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12Z GFS is still a no go except extreme NE NC toward the end.. Even a lot of virginia is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The GFSv16 is being nicer to me that the old PoS GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 4:06 PM, magpiemaniac said: The GFSv16 is being nicer to me that the old PoS GFS. Expand Yes it is a good bit more south than standard GFS.. Gives Wake 1-2" across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 4:11 PM, PackGrad05 said: Yes it is a good bit more south than standard GFS.. Expand Any snowfall maps from GFS Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 4:12 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Any snowfall maps from GFS Para? Expand Here you go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z UK wasn't hitting on much... much less snow compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 2:42 PM, gritsnc said: I'm in Stokes County, so definitely north of 40. Although the last system we got gave Kernersville more than me. Expand I'm 4 miles north of downtown Kville. We might have had flurries at best while downtown got a good ground covering per my mother in law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:06 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z UK wasn't hitting on much... much less snow compared to 0z Expand It gave most of central VA’s snow to northeast NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:10 PM, Chuck said: I'm 4 miles north of downtown Kville. We might have had flurries at best while downtown got a good ground covering per my mother in law. Expand The gradients were something. I had nearly 2” in northern Guilford while my in-laws in western Guilford had flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s been over for Southen NC and most of central NC. Nail bitting time for SVA. Northeastern NC might do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Still don't think it is quite *over* for Wake. UKMET showed trace - 1 inch for wake. GFS Para showed 1-2". Almost 1/2 of the EPS ensembles showed something. I want to see 12Z ECMWF and EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:06 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z UK wasn't hitting on much... much less snow compared to 0z Expand This point I’d go 3-6/4-8 type deal for my area. 2-4 for down your way. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I’ll throw in the towel (or hang onto it) based on tomorrow’s 12z model runs. I’ll just live vicariously through the Arizona folks getting 3 feet of snow through Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:06 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z UK wasn't hitting on much... much less snow compared to 0z Expand Dont tell that to NE NC. 6-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:25 PM, eyewall said: It's over. See you next year. Expand I want to know who hacked eyewall's account? Not like him to cancel winter in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:40 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I want to know who hacked eyewall's account? Not like him to cancel winter in January. Expand He’s been pretty anti-weenie for awhile now. I think the terrible winters have broken him. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro was a dumpster fire for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 6:23 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Euro was a dumpster fire for everyone Expand That was a mess. No one will be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 6:23 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Euro was a dumpster fire for everyone Expand Awful . See you guys in early Feb to track out next 14 day event . I’m down 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 What did EPS look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 5:28 PM, Buddy1987 said: This point I’d go 3-6/4-8 type deal for my area. 2-4 for down your way. Agree? Expand Hard to say man... the EURO is pretty ugly... tough to bet against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 6:30 PM, BornAgain13 said: Hard to say man... the EURO is pretty ugly... tough to bet against it Expand Eh.. if there’s one year it will be this year. There’s a lot of continuity with other models. I get people are chapped because every promising pattern and every storm within 5 days just epically fails but this one is gonna pull through! I’m going Jebman on this one. Fatties ripping and a decent storm north of NC/VA border. Real winners may very well end up being RIC and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/24/2021 at 6:42 PM, Buddy1987 said: Eh.. if there’s one year it will be this year. There’s a lot of continuity with other models. I get people are chapped because every promising pattern and every storm within 5 days just epically fails but this one is gonna pull through! I’m going Jebman on this one. Fatties ripping and a decent storm north of NC/VA border. Real winners may very well end up being RIC and eastern NC Expand My guess right now for the "epicenter" for this storm will be right around route 460. From Roanoke east to Lynchburg... to far north from there will be a cutoff and to far south from there will be to warm... just a guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro continuing to show something more interesting later in the run for western areas and mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On the bright side, the pattern isn’t looking quite as bad as advertised coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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