BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I should keep a count for all the times the GFS is out in left field all by itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way. Edit: man really examining the backend of things as it gets cranking that ccb is gonna demolish someone. Verbatim I’d prolly flip to sheets of paper and 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:06 PM, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way. Expand 12z GFS is still to warm though... its a heavy rain to snow scenario per GFS , I don't know what to make of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:06 PM, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way. Expand It brings about 3-5" here with much more just north near Lynchburg, very tight gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What I don't understand is why are the models showing a deformation band as rain? With all the cold air and the storm exploding... no way that's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:08 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z GFS is still to warm though... its a heavy rain to snow scenario per GFS , I don't know what to make of it... Expand Honestly I don’t either. Normally if high is positioned correctly then I’d feel a lot better but in a sense there’s really nothing for the primary to push further north and east because the high is too far west to my liking and also allows WAA to flood over (tpv would really be the main saving grace and even that has been modeled to be all over the place). Really comes down to and this is if the ull can undercut us how dynamic it is and how quickly CAA can get going once winds switch in our favor and pump in that cold 1042HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Little further south, not much. If HP was as strong as 6z, it could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:13 PM, BornAgain13 said: What I don't understand is why are the models showing a deformation band as rain? With all the cold air and the storm exploding... no way that's rain. Expand It won’t it’ll end up being a paste bomb if you take the gfs at literal face value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:14 PM, Buddy1987 said: It won’t it’ll end up being a paste bomb if you take the gfs at literal face value Expand I wondering about that. If it plays out like that, someone is going to get some heavy snow after changeover like Roxboro perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Buddy1987 , GFS Para comes in again and went north... pretty good for you and north va but only 1-2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:18 PM, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987 , GFS Para comes in again and went north... pretty good for you and north va but only 1-2" here Expand Idk where to even access it anymore. Everything I have is stuck at 12z on 1/21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Congrats West Virginia, that's the only spot that should feel pretty good about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z CMC continues to stay central VA and points N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The GFS keeps pushing south. One more push and most of NC is back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:59 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The GFS keeps pushing south. One more push and most of NC is back in. Expand More importantly the GEFS agrees with the gfs but in all actuality looks better IMO pretty impressive to see the mean of 4” up this way but even 40 corridor average of about 1.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC ever so slightly south. Need to see European now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ukmet finally put the booze down and has a storm albeit still pretty Far East. Good trend tho IMO to see what the euro ultimately offers.baby steps are key for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:23 PM, Buddy1987 said: Idk where to even access it anymore. Everything I have is stuck at 12z on 1/21 Expand Same here. Cannot find anything out there that updates Para from 1/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 5:18 PM, yotaman said: Same here. Cannot find anything out there that updates Para from 1/21.Pivotal Weather has updated GFS V16 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 5:18 PM, yotaman said: Same here. Cannot find anything out there that updates Para from 1/21. Expand Is pivotal not updating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 5:31 PM, BullCityWx said: Is pivotal not updating? Expand Pivotal is updating now since 00z last nught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:23 PM, Buddy1987 said: Idk where to even access it anymore. Everything I have is stuck at 12z on 1/21 Expand On 1/23/2021 at 5:18 PM, yotaman said: Same here. Cannot find anything out there that updates Para from 1/21. Expand Have you guys tried clearing your cookies/cache? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I believe its time to stick a fork in it. ETA: For NC I mean. VA still very much in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Trends not looking great.. I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes... Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done... We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels. We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb.. Neither looks possible (for now) with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I actually wasn't that discouraged by this suite and I think we live to see the next round. The outskirts of this forum (you could call it the highway 158 corridor, if that's a thing) are still flirting with the possibility of meaningful snow if you take some of today's runs verbatim. There were some subtle synoptic changes that I liked as well that caused storm tracks to either hold serve or inch southward. I'm not putting a stake in this yet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like good trend on Euro toward the GFS. We really need a little spacing like I alluded to last night so the next storm has some room to breathe and be able to amplify rather than get pinched off. That happens should allow for a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 5:37 PM, Tullioz said: Have you guys tried clearing your cookies/cache? Expand Tried that and it still will not update. I am using Chrome and Tropical Tidbits. EDIT: Pivotal weather does work for me. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just catching up with the 12z suite. Wow, if we can get that backside deformation zone the GFS showing in Hampton Roads, that'd be sweet. So hard to have to rely on those though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 7:12 PM, ILMRoss said: I actually wasn't that discouraged by this suite and I think we live to see the next round. The outskirts of this forum (you could call it the highway 158 corridor, if that's a thing) are still flirting with the possibility of meaningful snow if you take some of today's runs verbatim. There were some subtle synoptic changes that I liked as well that caused storm tracks to either hold serve or inch southward. I'm not putting a stake in this yet. Expand So about a 15 mile shift for me. I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 That wrap around is looking pretty good for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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