Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Don't worry the Euro will come in with sprinkles in an hour and a half I do think Ukie has to trend north now at this point but man has that model had a mind of its own over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: To be honest guys some of our big doozies living here now since 2012 have been the way we get these primaries to get close and then swing directly underneath us so we get the dynamics of that low still plus the developing ccb from the secondary taking over. I’m not gonna get so invested to where I get let down because that has become more of a reality here than not last couple winters. With that said CMC is a mauling in my book for north of I-40 and looks much more realistic with the primary. Gonna be a battle next couple days. @BornAgain13 where you at?! CMC will make you happy for sure. we may be thinking about different systems... buddy i'm going to be honest with you man, i've been reading/chiming in here for years and when i check the forum after being busy for a few hours and i see you super happy my heart drops like a rock 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I do think Ukie has to trend north now at this point but man has that model had a mind of its own over the years. It would towel tossing for the RDU area. Quite frankly I'm expecting it but you never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ILMRoss said: we may be thinking about different systems... buddy i'm going to be honest with you man, i've been reading/chiming in here for years and when i check the forum after being busy for a few hours and i see you super happy my heart drops like a rock See and that’s the crappy part. I feel like the red headed step child. I’m literally in an area where either I’m almost rubbing salt in the wound for you guys or then in no mans land when DC crew is off their rockers because of too much confluence and you guys are cashing in to the south of me. Maybe we should just make a southern VA/northern NC forum and call it a day lollll. And I def understand the sentiment you share. I’ve been posting since the Eastern US weather board days. Only problem is I got to be in CT for all those, as I relocated down here like I said back in 2012. Posters like Typhoon Tip and ORHWxman are amazing and very knowledgeable people up that way. Def appreciate your insight on things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @ILMRoss GEFS looks much more “serviceable” and overall would deliver for a lot more people in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Buddy you just got plastered on the gfs clown. All VA. I remember that vibe last night at this time. That GFS clown map ain’t got nothing on the GEFS. That’s a damn beat down my area north but also much colder and snowier solutions intermingled within the suite to get more people in the game IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: See and that’s the crappy part. I feel like the red headed step child. I’m literally in an area where either I’m almost rubbing salt in the wound for you guys or then in no mans land when DC crew is off their rockers because of too much confluence and you guys are cashing in to the south of me. Maybe we should just make a southern VA/northern NC forum and call it a day lollll. And I def understand the sentiment you share. I’ve been posting since the Eastern US weather board days. Only problem is I got to be in CT for all those, as I relocated down here like I said back in 2012. Posters like Typhoon Tip and ORHWxman are amazing and very knowledgeable people up that way. Def appreciate your insight on things. I get it, I was a broadcast met at the station in Bluefield WV right out of college and that SWVA/SWV/i81 corridor until you reach Lexington is kind of geographic no-mans-land; not quite rocky enough to claim Appalachia, in between the north and the south. I keep on thinking back to March 2018, where it felt like a lot of systems dipped into us from the NW and storms that at first seemed like would exclusively be for SWVA surprised the models and clipped NC with some extra snow. I just keep on wondering how exactly this thing coming in from due W or WNW changes the typical trends that we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Holy cow at the 0z new gfs. Carolina crusher part 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z gfs para looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Don't worry the Euro will come in with sprinkles in an hour and a half Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Wiff & miss.. Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro says no snowstorm... for anyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: 06z? I'd Toss it.. The Low tracks like a Roller Coaster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, SENC said: Wiff & miss.. Cold Rain Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 At least for my direct area 6z gfs doesn’t get the primary as far north and east. Sounds like para would make a bunch of people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro says no snowstorm... for anyone When it’s euro against the world here I don’t buy it. Do I fully entrust in the gfs? Never. When it has support tho then more likely than not euro will come around. I don’t have access to it and rely on others here to post and don’t know what 5h is showing that would make that much of a difference with the overall Synoptics vs the gfs, Canadian, icon etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: See and that’s the crappy part. I feel like the red headed step child. I’m literally in an area where either I’m almost rubbing salt in the wound for you guys or then in no mans land when DC crew is off their rockers because of too much confluence and you guys are cashing in to the south of me. Maybe we should just make a southern VA/northern NC forum and call it a day lollll. And I def understand the sentiment you share. I’ve been posting since the Eastern US weather board days. Only problem is I got to be in CT for all those, as I relocated down here like I said back in 2012. Posters like Typhoon Tip and ORHWxman are amazing and very knowledgeable people up that way. Def appreciate your insight on things. I moved from the Worcester area 3 yrs ago. Those mets up there are the best, but I miss Damage in Tolland the most (after snow, of course) I enjoy when I see mets from up there and here co-mingling. That’s when you know it’s worth watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, bairn said: I moved from the Worcester area 3 yrs ago. Those mets up there are the best, but I miss Damage in Tolland the most (after snow, of course) I enjoy when I see mets from up there and here co-mingling. That’s when you know it’s worth watching. Lmao! You’re talking about Kevin. He is such a clown but very funny to keep up with and read. I was in NW CT so about 90 or so min from you via Mass pike. Good to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is looking more and more like a northern VA Snowstorm unless something changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just to document the diff between the GFS and Euro from the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Just to document the diff between the GFS and Euro from the 00z runs They are way apart from each other. Gfs has the Low near the VA/NC border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’ve been pretty optimistic and I still think we we’re in the game, especially if the high octane solutions of the GFS pan out. With a “big dog”, we don’t necessarily need to be in the epicenter to receive significant snows. That being said, if we trend towards less favorable solutions this suite, I will be moving on and catching up on some of the work I put off this week because I was model watching instead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I’ve been pretty optimistic and I still think we we’re in the game, especially if the high octane solutions of the GFS pan out. With a “big dog”, we don’t necessarily need to be in the epicenter to receive significant snows. That being said, if we trend towards less favorable solutions this suite, I will be moving on and catching up on some of the work I put off this week because I was model watching instead. Isn't model watching your work? Surely all Meteorologist's sole purpose is to track potential snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 A few thoughts here on the reason for the differences between the GFS and ECMWF solutions: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1352993792870273024 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I know it's the 84 hr NAM , but it looks like it's digging at the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Isn't model watching your work? Surely all Meteorologist's sole purpose is to track potential snow?I have a meteorology degree and I worked in the industry some, which is why I have the red tag, but i am currently working out of the industry. To add, there are plenty of meteorologists (insurance folks, research, client facing folks, programmers, developers etc.) whose job is not purely to focus 7 days ahead. It’s become a very expansive industry! Unless I was media in Raleigh, or at a NWS WFO around the area, chances are I’d have other work besides figuring out if the triangle gets snow in 5 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 FWIW , the 12z ICON continues the theme of a weak wave , similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I have a meteorology degree and I worked in the industry some, which is why I have the red tag, but i am currently working out of the industry. To add, there are plenty of meteorologists (insurance folks, research, client facing folks, programmers, developers etc.) whose job is not purely to focus 7 days ahead. It’s become a very expansive industry! Unless I was media in Raleigh, or at a NWS WFO around the area, chances are I’d have other work besides figuring out if the triangle gets snow in 5 days. I don’t envy anyone trying to forecast winter storms from say Richmond to Greenville, SC. It has to be one of the toughest regions in the country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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