Ghicks Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Share the wealth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Today is the first day since before Christmas that I haven’t had snow on the ground. Need to replenish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Those 12z GFS gradients in Guilford County. LOL. A dusting at best in southwest Guilford and 9” in northeast Guilford. The models are going to volley this storm between NC/SC and VA/MD for the next two or three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GFS Kuchera Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Didn't the GFS have most of NC covered with snow and a foot in central NC the last run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GEFS looks good up this way Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess. CMC was a tad to north from my area , but other guidance looks good at the moment... let's see what Dr. No has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The Ukmet is quite suppressed. Pretty good place to be at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, olafminesaw said: The Ukmet is quite suppressed. Pretty good place to be at this range. Maybe the Euro can take the CMC and GFS and meet in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Didn't the GFS have most of NC covered with snow and a foot in central NC the last run? We were looking good for a little while but you will likely still see something (you’re still in Wake Forest I assume). Regardless, we have officially had a Brick Tamland post so this is an official threat in my book! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess. Yea but if I was in the Emporia-Richmond area I’d be feeling pretty good about this system. Pretty sure everything has been burying them for a couple days now. North and south of there is the gray area at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: We were looking good for a little while but you will likely still see something (you’re still in Wake Forest I assume). Regardless, we have officially had a Brick Tamland post so this is an official threat in my book! That's just a huge difference in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Maybe the Euro can take the CMC and GFS and meet in the middle. At this point, I'd say keep it right there. Love seeing the UKMET suppressed. If EURO keeps it the same, that'll be great. We all know it's going to tick NW the last 2 days. If we're in bullseye right now we'll end up like the 12Z GFS. Not feeling great about this one, but might as well track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'd like to see the euro continue it's slightly south trend next run. That coupled with the model spread of central/southern Va. to southern NC (suppressed) would have me feeling good at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Is the new GFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Ukmet is quite suppressed. Pretty good place to be at this range. h5 vort max track... GFS: S NM > OK City > NW TN > S NC UKMet: S NM > Red River > N Bama > N SC So, a farther south track on the UKMet. Also, the ridging is a little stronger behind the wave up into SW Canada on the UKMet and GFS is about a 1/2 day slower with the wave so the 50/50 low over the Canadian Maritimes is having less influence on it compared to the UKMet with respect to the wave digging ESE into the Carolinas The Euro awaits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Is the new GFS out yet? It's stuck at hr105 on the 01/21 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Wishing you guys a look of luck. The 00 Gfs got this weenie excited but when you look at a combo of all the models right now I’m just too far south. N NC and S va look good but minor swings will be big either way. Go south young man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Out to hr123 on the Euro and the wave is coming in a little quicker thru OK compared to the GFS...it should end up a little south of the GFS in the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Cue up the ground temperatures comments! But this bodes well in my book. We always have a big southerly warm surge prior to a winter storm it seems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro might actually be coming in the middle of the GFS and UK like I wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The Euro is weak and a whole lot of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: The Euro is weak and a whole lot of nothing. Well that was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro is a very weak storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: The Euro is weak and a whole lot of nothing. Yep, it's kind of like the UKMet - farther south, but too weak to cool the column for much in the way of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Temperature are the limiting factor here... Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all. We just haven't had a strong cold push all season. *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Temperature are the limiting factor here... Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all. We just haven't had a strong cold push all season. *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain. Eh, we have a lot of issues with this one. If it trends stronger it will likely be too amped and rain, but we need heavier precip to cool the column for snow. Temps are borderline and super warm beforehand, and the CAD high is really nowhere to be found on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Dr. No , says NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Weak and south is not a bad thing at this point. That’s what the Uk and euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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