Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Murphy to Manteo classic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 850s not a problem at all on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not as amped this run. Wish it would wrap up and go up the coast instead of OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Exactly, just a matter of looking at the pattern and hopefully get a nice storm! It’s nice to have something to track at hour 168 instead of 384. The constituency consistency is a little spooky. (Autocorrect on a tablet can be annoying.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The constituency is a little spooky. No political discussions. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Awesome 0z Icon, Gfs runs. No pressure, only 6 days of prevent defense left trying to keep this locked in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 If the 00z verified, @Grayman wouldn’t have to drive anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Good grief its really tough to remain stoic and prudent and trying not to let one run sway your opinion when the GFS is spitting out banger after banger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z Cmc is to warm. Brings some rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: If the 00z verified, @Grayman wouldn’t have to drive anywhere. Omg. Elizabeth I’m having the big one. Every time I try to get out they suck me back in. Somebody tell this weenie that’s not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Good grief its really tough to remain stoic and prudent and trying not to let one run sway your opinion when the GFS is spitting out banger after banger euro will tell the tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 hope gfs enscrambles support this run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Why cant today the 28th. I want to sleep with gfs every night now 15" at RDU la la la la la lock it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Awesome 0z Icon, Gfs runs. No pressure, only 6 days of prevent defense left trying to keep this locked in. 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z Cmc is to warm. Brings some rain Yeah, GFS and Icon were about as good as we can hope for in this setup with the wave pass. CMC is the 'nightmare' scenario of the farther north wave track and the pesky closed upper low north of the Great Lakes (blue blob) which doesn't allow the damming high to build in. You can see the difference here between the 2 north of the Great Lakes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Something I'm noticing; I think the secret sauce to this event is the ridge that fills in behind our shortwave. So let's look at the GFS: s Two things to draw attention to. The wave coming into Cali is big, and stout, and robust, and really helping pump up the ridge to its east. For comparison sake, make mental note of the 558 decameter line, which nudges all the way into Wyoming. Nice ridge! That ridge is what's shunting our shortwave SE-ward and letting it bomb off the coast. Now, the fresh Canadian for comparison: So, the Cali trough; it's a little weaker, it's a little faster, it's a little less robust. In response, the Wyoming ridge: barely seeing that 552 decameter line cross into Wyoming. It's a weaker ridge. In response, that ridge doesn't have the elbow grease to shunt our wave to the southeast which is why the mid-atlantic gets a good hit on the Canadian. All of these troughs and ridges respond to one another- a stronger than forecast trough off the west coast could mean a stronger than forecasted ridge over the rockies which translates to a stronger, deeper trough near us... you get the idea. So that's probably what I'm going to be paying the most attention to going forward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Gfs slowed the wave down a bit looks like allowing CAD to build in out ahead a little better. Beyond frustrating seeing all that snow deep into SC yet nothing at all in GA lol. Hanging my hopes on an under-modeled CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah, GFS and Icon were about as good as we can hope for in this setup with the wave pass. CMC is the 'nightmare' scenario of the farther north wave track and the pesky closed upper low north of the Great Lakes (blue blob) which doesn't allow the damming high to build in. You can see the difference here between the 2 north of the Great Lakes Yeah, to append my whole spiel about wave dynamics, also doesn't help when you don't have a great big damming high that forces your cyclogenesis off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UKMet looks closer to the GFS than the CMC. It is warmer than the GFS at 850mb. After hr144 here, the storm wave over W TN/KY would be moving ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet looks closer to the GFS than the CMC. It is warmer than the GFS at 850mb. After hr144 here, the storm wave over W TN/KY would be moving ESE Decent bit faster. At 0z on the 28th the GFS is just starting to form the weak surface low back around Louisiana/Mississippi, while the UKMet already has it there in south/central GA. I’d guess we want the slower solutions allowing the HP more time to get into position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 00z GFS Ens Members. Some hit parts of our forum, some hit north, a few weak 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z Euro isn't too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Grayman said: Man Rockingham is the worst ever. I usually travel 25 miles north to see a flake. I’m Mr Weenie Dude I feel that pain! Normally when I'm getting screwed, it can be as little as 5miles to snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not much doing for SE VA on the 00z Euro. Like the 00z GFS the low just slides out to sea. This is my first full winter here but I'm pretty confident in saying that's not the track you want the low to take to get snow in Hampton Roads haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6z doesnt get it done.. NE NC gets hammered.. precip field looks sparse over SC and central and western nc.. looks real disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 hours ago, Avdave said: Why cant today the 28th. I want to sleep with gfs every night now 15" at RDU la la la la la lock it up That 16 is on my roof! ck please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looks like the 6z GFS backed off a tad. More like the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Looks like the 6z GFS backed off a tad. More like the 00z Euro. Yep, down to 5-7 inches now instead of 12-16”. I’ll just take a guaranteed 6 at this point since we have been pretty much blanked here 5 miles north-northeast of RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 45 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Yep, down to 5-7 inches now instead of 12-16”. I’ll just take a guaranteed 6 at this point since we have been pretty much blanked here 5 miles north-northeast of RDU. I wouldn't get caught up in amounts or spread just yet. The interactive system behaviors are still there and producing snow so that's important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6z EPS looks like it would be a solid hit for northern NC points north...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I wouldn't get caught up in amounts or spread just yet. The interactive system behaviors are still there and producing snow so that's important. Yepp, Euro and the GFS showing a storm is a good thing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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