davenc Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 But for real! The system heading toward NC as I type this, seems to be of no concern to anyone??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 CMC is more like the reg GFS. Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker) The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, griteater said: CMC is more like the reg GFS. Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker) The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough Ain’t much a 1044MB high can’t fix for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: CMC is more like the reg GFS. Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker) The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough If those GL lows weren't such a fixture most of the time I would tend to have more faith in this v16 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: How has para verified relative to gfs lately anyone? Should we just wait for European and Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, griteater said: CMC is more like the reg GFS. Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker) The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough Thanks. Is it all timing ? What else needs to go right to get better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z CMC is a solid hit for southern VA, and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Thanks Bull City so European is king but Gfs v16 has verified slightly better than gfs according to your graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Thanks Bull City so European is king but Gfs v16 has verified slightly better than gfs according to your graph. A solid second place in the mid range roughly, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 0z CMC is a solid hit for southern VA, and points north. I think you southern Va boys are in a good spot. Just need the high to trend stronger and further soutH and the rest of us can play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Roxboro in good shape once again. They never lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Grayman said: I think you southern Va boys are in a good spot. Just need the high to trend stronger and further soutH and the rest of us can play. That may be so, but this is just fun to track and watch right now , got a long ways to go... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Grayman said: Thanks. Is it all timing ? What else needs to go right to get better? The storm wave is moving from the SW states into Missouri, then ESE into NC. It’s an odd setup but not unprecedented. That track makes sense with a -PNA / -NAO. We want to see the ridge go up quicker and stronger behind the wave to help it not gain as much latitude. With the surface high north of the Great Lakes, we just want to see that area around and north of the Great Lakes free of any short waves / closed lows - instead we want to see clean ridging building in there behind the departing early week storm and upstream of (behind) the 50/50 low complex off the Canadian Maritimes. The Para gave all of this a good effort 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That may be so, but this is just fun to track and watch right now , got a long ways to go... Yes, we’re just in the ‘maybe this could happen’ stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I mean is the source cold air just pathetic for peak winter? A 1044 high and a surface low in North Florida on the Para and its still almost all rain in NE GA damming regions. 9 times out of 10 I swear a high that strong puts us in the game in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 06Z JAN 21 (+174 hour) GFS was.... Interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Overnight Euro is playing as its old self, the sinister Dr. No as it tracks the wave from Arizona to SE Michigan which is no good and is a red flag in spite of some recent good GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The old GFS seems to have caught up to the 0z GFSV16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: The old GFS seems to have caught up to the 0z GFSV16. It was the best wave pass of any run I’ve seen from any model (AZ to N OK to TN), it just didn’t have the good, damming high pressure out in front. It looks like the para is stuck at hr105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Not awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, griteater said: It was the best wave pass of any run I’ve seen from any model (AZ to N OK to TN), it just didn’t have the good, damming high pressure out in front. It looks like the para is stuck at hr105 To be honest, I feel more confident in the high than I do QPF at this point. It's hard for those La Nina waves to hold up across the country. I picked Burlington out of thin air and there's too many 0.0s for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Always in the past, the best damming events had a high pressure centered over PA or NY. That 1037 or so high looks nice, but man it is way up there. I'd take a 1032 over NY vs the 1037 over Ontario. Hopefully the 12z run swing back our way a bit. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal. Ross, As always thanks for jumping in... Assume you mean euro ensembles have differences with respect to other model ensembles and not 'stark differences' among their own individual panels. Haven't looked. If I'm not mistaken though it was the euro that saw this signal originally several days ago before the other models caught on. So we got that hope going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal. You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 For what it's worth, 6z BUFKIT had 11" for RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: For what it's worth, 6z BUFKIT had 11" for RDU. Hopefully all models will continue the trend at 12z and hopefully the EURO will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: For what it's worth, 6z BUFKIT had 11" for RDU. gfs or para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: gfs or para? I believe he's referring to the regular GFS. , the PARA got stuck and didn't finish the 6z run for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Roxboro in good shape once again. They never lose. Lmao nothing has ever been Truer. I’m getting Married next Saturday Carrigan Farms(outside) in Mooresville NC . So it wouldnt surprise me one bit if the “fun gossip” threat occurred and we paid money and then no one could get here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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