BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 00z icon had a doozy of a snowstorm on Monday. Gfs is close... Saw some interest from the 6z GEFS for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 If the storm at hour 210 on the Para materialized and took that track in peak climo and we didn’t get a snowstorm I would throw in the towel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Today's rain was originally modeled as a big snowstorm. Remember that. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 53 minutes ago, eyewall said: Today's rain was originally modeled as a big snowstorm. Remember that. This precip event also overperformed based on forecasting as well. Never supposed to get this much last night I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Long range Euro is a disaster but at least we get some dry warm days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Long range Euro is a disaster but at least we get some dry warm days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ukmet is developing a storm in the gulf at hr144... game on. I think this one trends from a suppressed nothingburger to our big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 GFS has light accumulation on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Both GFS' have light snow across a lot of NC on Monday. Shouldnt be much but it's honest work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 and the polar vortex is dropping into lower canada at 264. Just north of Lake Superior to be specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Long range Euro is a disaster but at least we get some dry warm days Looks like Saturday won’t be above freezing here. I don’t see too much warm out there in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Long range Euro is a disaster but at least we get some dry warm days Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. Warm days? Where? 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Polar vortex floats about in Lower Canada from 240 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 We’re having a seasonal, moderate winter. Sure, for most, snowfall has been lackluster or missing. But, On the bright side, there has been very little to no torch, with none in sight. We are in a pattern where 50 seems mild/warm, which is better than recent winters. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 144hr ukmet is a thing of beauty. Snow breaking out in north Georgia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 It is bad if you are expecting a cold snowy pattern like many were harping for this time period. There are days in the 50s and little moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Nice to see multiple threats show up on the 12Z GFSv16 today. Hours 138, 198, and 324 all show potential for snowfall in the SE. Different types of systems in each case, and still way out in the future, but they demonstrate what is possible when we have an active storm track and some blocking. I am excited about the possibilities... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, msuwx said: Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. Warm days? Where? Tell me then why I should be enthused by the upcoming pattern? A lot of Mets have been saying this is the time period for east coast cold and storms and its not matriculating for now. I'm still learning about pattern recognition and want to sincerely ask what's exciting about the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Anyone got access past hr 120 ukmet? Or is 120 as far out as it goes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Both GFS and GFS Para with light snow accumulation on Monday. The GFS ensemble have been showing a little life with this as well... doesn't look like a lot but something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Do any of you guys know much about the polar vortex? I understand the warming then it splits but what is needed for that cold to spill toward the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Anyone got access past hr 120 ukmet? Or is 120 as far out as it goes? UK only goes out to 144 but extrapolating it was going to be a major winter storm for WNC and N/W of 85. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: UK only goes out to 144 but extrapolating it was going to be a major winter storm for WNC and N/W of 85. I agree that this definitely looks like a western NC hit. Going negative tilt too early for the eastern part of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: 144hr ukmet is a thing of beauty. Snow breaking out in north Georgia. Snow from AVL to ATL to BHM to MSY. That thing is gonna bury someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, Grayman said: Do any of you guys know much about the polar vortex? I understand the warming then it splits but what is needed for that cold to spill toward the southeast? Usually if the polar vortex is floating around southeastern canada, that is a colder pattern for us. It could also induce supression. Actually, that question came at a great time as DT explains the potential coming pattern well: https://twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1349042151544532994?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 41 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Snow from AVL to ATL to BHM to MSY. That thing is gonna bury someone. Good them. But what about non-mountainous NC and VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Massive winter storm on Day 8.5 euro. Snow for CLT/GSO/RDU with a transition zone around the SC border. Not quite the QPF you think you'd see but still almost .75 at CLT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: It is bad if you are expecting a cold snowy pattern like many were harping for this time period. There are days in the 50s and little moisture I wouldn't say there's one specific threat to be excited about, but I see tons of signs that we at least have chances coming over the next few weeks. This time of the season, if you can maintain near or slightly below average temps, magic can happen. Doesn't have to be 10 days of 20 below average deviations. The NAO and AO are looking to be favorable, and the EPO and WPO are finally getting more favorable. The one thing I don't like is losing the +PNA, but it is what it is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, msuwx said: I wouldn't say there's one specific threat to be excited about, but I see tons of signs that we at least have chances coming over the next few weeks. This time of the season, if you can maintain near or slightly below average temps, magic can happen. Doesn't have to be 10 days of 20 below average deviations. The NAO and AO are looking to be favorable, and the EPO and WPO are finally getting more favorable. The one thing I don't like is losing the +PNA, but it is what it is. Matt, you can correct me if I'm wrong but I swear I remember PDII happening in a very similar pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Matt, you can correct me if I'm wrong but I swear I remember PDII happening in a very similar pattern. I believe you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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