GunBlade Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 GFS has nice fantasy storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, GunBlade said: GFS has nice fantasy storm. Cool our next severe threat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 28 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW Nope. Time for Spring and dandelions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TWSeems to be more seasonal than anything. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 59 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW Have you looked at the euro? There is some cold showing up there. The GFS has been on and off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just looked at the 00z euro through 240. Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion. Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area. That’s just pretty standard stuff. Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan). How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Gfs looks as good as it gets in the longe range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 57 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Just looked at the 00z euro through 240. Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion. Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area. That’s just pretty standard stuff. Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan). How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)? TW Heard on the MA forum that 00Z EPS is disastrous past about Day 7. 06Z GEFS looked great, but someone said 12Z caved to the EPS. Still awaiting confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I would be surprised if we don’t have another threat by Inauguration Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 This "pattern" looks to be breaking down soon looking at the EPS and GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 55 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Gfs looks as good as it gets in the longe range We’re still in our feelings about yesterday so I’m pretty sure the sky is falling and it’ll never snow again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I would be surprised if we don’t have another threat by Inauguration Day. Yea a nice rain threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just remember the boundary layer always wins. We saw that yesterday. You can't just depend on dynamics. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: Just remember the boundary layer always wins. We saw that yesterday. You can't just depend on dynamics. Burlington was warmer than we got here yesterday by 3 degrees though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I am considering a project to amuse me and perhaps improve my coding and weather skills. I would really like to keep track of the various ensemble predictions for temperatures as they change day to day. Does anyone know where I can access numerical data for GEFS temperature outputs for say RDU from day 1 to Day 15? I would love to have all the ensemble members available so I could plot a mean and a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 After yetsterdays debacle I believe we might have some radio silence. Nothing really to look at on Euro and Gfs shows potential until all the lows turn into cutters. The “great pattern” does not look so great. I’m tired boss I’m real tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, wncsnow said: This "pattern" looks to be breaking down soon looking at the EPS and GEFS. Yeah all this blocking is really leading to nothing. All the cold air is on the other side of the globe. And when Canada becomes really cold again everything will dump into the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, BullCityWx said: We’re still in our feelings about yesterday so I’m pretty sure the sky is falling and it’ll never snow again. Indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah all this blocking is really leading to nothing. All the cold air is on the other side of the globe. And when Canada becomes really cold again everything will dump into the west. Yep I'm worried we may be losing out on a super blocking-NAO with little to talk about due to the lack of cold air. And if this was a Nino can you imagine the subtropical jet? It would decide to finally have a -NAO with a moderate Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yep I'm worried we may be losing out on a super blocking-NAO with little to talk about due to the lack of cold air. And if this was a Nino can you imagine the subtropical jet? It would decide to finally have a -NAO with a moderate Nina I mean we are very early in winter but the MJO can wreak havoc on the pattern along with a cluster of other things. We will see but this has been the talk over the course of the past week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 hours ago, Met1985 said: I mean we are very early in winter but the MJO can wreak havoc on the pattern along with a cluster of other things. We will see but this has been the talk over the course of the past week or two. Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events. In the mountains, we have snow in March as a general rule, especially where Met1985 is, and many times April. I can't speak for other areas of North Carolina. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Nice looking slider on the Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events. March is better than December, so no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 46 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Nice looking slider on the Para GFS Which run. I didn’t see it on Para hour? I saw one on 300 hr Gfs at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events. Lol...winter just started 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Ian Livingston @islivingston · 53m This winter is teetering on disaster esp if we get thru the super duper amazing pattern with little to show for it around here. Hold out hope for an inauguration blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol...winter just started WE MUST PANIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Both the Canadian and the Para GFS have significant events day 8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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