raindancewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 About time. Most of January 2008 the MJO was in phase 7 to phase 2. Second half of that month is very cold after a warm start. That's been the main analog of my outlook for three months now. That month is not super cold though with the first half offsetting the colder second half pretty effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Not bad Compared to 12z yesterday, definitely in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Compared to 12z yesterday, definitely in the right directionGetting close to some benchmark areas . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Getting close to some benchmark areas . . It's closer.. Still would like it to dig about 80-100 miles further south to pop a low on the gulf coast. It's tracking the low over central MS/AL/GA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wow said: It's closer.. Still would like it to dig about 80-100 miles further south to pop a low on the gulf coast. It's tracking the low over central MS/AL/GA Need to pop that surface LP off Savannah or better yet Jacksonville, FL. Off Charleston is not bad but just out of reach for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Here's the trend of the GEFS. The ULL trending south and height building overhead into the great lakes which reinforces the HP. Continue just a bit more and would put a lot more of NC in range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Well that was a weird 18z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Well that was a weird 18z GFS run Only place for it to go is south, can’t go north there’s too much blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 It's a better track. Again, cold air supply is going to be the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just need more moisture in the mountains and foothills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Just need more moisture in the mountains and foothills It’s a fine line, further south and less amped is cooler but less moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 No worries about the moisture.. it'll be there with the strength of this ULL. Actually the temps above the surface trended colder NW of the low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 18z GFS PARA stalls out and dumps on southwest VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Half a foot IMBY this run. Lock it in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The ICON this run at hour 120 was 300 miles SW at the 500mb level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Anyone know what the Para does in Raleigh at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 is this system trending in faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wow, GFSv16 (18z) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 51 minutes ago, CaryWx said: is this system trending in faster? I wouldn’t say faster. The ICON, in particular, is gonna be much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GEFS trend loop over the past 24 hours for Thursday at 7PM. Stronger North Atlantic ridge. Stronger 50/50 low. Taller ridge behind the storm wave. All aids in producing the trend of a farther south wave track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Anyone have the GEFS ensemble member snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Here's the trend loop on the Euro with the last image being from the 18z run (that run only goes out to hr90). It has a small bump south on the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 look like euro carrying it further south than the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Love when this board comes alive. I’m still skeptical about this coming fridays system given the lack of cold air around but looks like we may have several shots down the road. I’ll let the experts continue and I love the discussion. Thanks everyone! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Wow said: Here's the trend of the GEFS. The ULL trending south and height building overhead into the great lakes which reinforces the HP. Continue just a bit more and would put a lot more of NC in range. That Great Lakes HP along with the confluence from the 50/50 low will be the deciding factor in whether or not we have enough cold air and the eventual track. You have to be excited about the trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Here's the trend loop on the Euro with the last image being from the 18z run (that run only goes out to hr90). It has a small bump south on the 18z run. Do you think the system will get squashed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That Great Lakes HP along with the confluence from the 50/50 low will be the deciding factor in whether or not we have enough cold air and the eventual track. You have to be excited about the trends so far. We can’t ask for better trends than what we’ve seen the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Do you think the system will get squashed? Trends today have been for a little stronger storm tracking a little farther south. I don’t think it’s going to trend back to a very weak system but track is up in the air, IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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