BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The 12Z UK showed a big hit for western NC Looks like all Globals are showing decent snows , depending on location, will the EURO join in... should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like all Globals are showing decent snows , depending on location, will the EURO join in... should be interesting Euro is currently the farthest south with the wave track (Canadian bumped south this run and is similar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 0z Euro had a favorable track and enough cold air is there to work with. Depends how quickly the secondary can pop to allow the lower and mid level cold air to sweep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Eric Webb tweeted that he's not real excited about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Eric Webb tweeted that he's not real excited about this setup. Usually when he's excited it doesn't snow so I'm cool with that 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro with the mini boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Incoming on the EURO! BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Eric Webb tweeted that he's not real excited about this setup. Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 SW VA jackpot this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z EUROSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro with a 2nd storm incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Mostly sleet south of the VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Second storm could be better and bigger than first around January 11 and 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4-6 inches round one followed by 3-5 inches 3 days later on euro. Not too shabby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Looks like a whiff for RDU on both storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Looks like a whiff for RDU on both storms? Yeah appears to be too far east of the climo favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like a whiff for RDU on both storms? I wouldn’t say so. Along and north of 85 should do okay. I’d even guess brier creek and the airport would do alright . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like a whiff for RDU on both storms? Nothing a short drive can't take care of. It definitely looks like a north of I-40 west of I-85 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 RDU north gets a little. Wake county gradient possibly in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: RDU north gets a little. Wake county gradient possibly in play. Definitely with that first event yes. I could see southern wake and Johnston get just rain while Hillsborough/Durham/Oxford get a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Was not really expecting a prior to Jan15th to be "our" storm(s) in the Triangle. More just the set-up. Holding out more expectation for something between the 15th & 25th as Eric alluded to a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Definitely with that first event yes. I could see southern wake and Johnston get just rain while Hillsborough/Durham/Oxford get a decent event. Roxboro in there for sure. They get the goods even on marginal close events such as these two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 At this point if even gets within close enough range to make a call map I will consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The euro control run has 2” at RDU with 4-5” north of 40/85 in Durham and Orange Counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z Euro Control Snow Depth for 1st systemSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Second storm is rain for everybody who isn’t on the summit of Grandfather on the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 An improving temperature profile shown here on the Euro Ensemble Mean for Jan 9-18 as colder air filters south from Northern Canada into the Great Lakes (GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in agreement) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro Ensemble Mean pattern for Jan 11-18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 AnthonyM is honking here as we move forward...."we're starting to see the NWP move away from the IO to Maritimes look now and more of a W PAC to IO look instead, as Matt alluded to earlier. evidence is increasing for a high impact period ahead." What he is saying is that the MJO models have been forecasting the upcoming tropical forcing in more of the 2-3-4-5 phases....but he is seeing (and maybe the models are correcting) to more of a W Pac to East Pac to Atlantic to Indian Ocean type circuit (Phase 7-8-1-2)...favorable for troughing in the eastern U.S. You can see that here with this product below. We never want to see enhanced convection / tropical forcing in the E Indian Ocean and Indonesia / Maritime Continent in winter for cold. Green areas are divergent flow aloft = enhanced convection. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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