Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Honestly, Canada being warm(ish) right now is the only thing keeping us from an I-10 storm threat as opposed to I-40. I’ll never wish to see warmer air but I’m genuinely concerned about suppression with what we’re seeing. Yeah, 17-18 (late Dec/early Jan) when we had that monster -EPO....one of the driest patterns I have seen during mid-winter and very cold. The North Fork of the Holston froze over here. I could be wrong, but I doubt with this background rainy pattern that we go very long without a storm pattern. If we get cold, might start seeing some 70s analogs start to show up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Very cold northern hemisphere on the 18z GFS-Para as Holston notes...-30s at the very end of its run into North Dakota. That will probably change in future runs one way or another. That said, we want to see that type of cold showing up periodically on modeling during the next week. Saw some hints this morning that the flow was reversing late in the d14-16 time frame. So, seeing a slight rend towards some extremes just after the middle of the month.18z PARA GFS popped some snow as the first upper low scoots across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 0z GFS just hammers middle and west TN around the 10th. Storms are definitely feeling the block now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 To varying degrees, the 0z CMC and GFS open up the flood gates in terms of Arctic air. The CMC manages to get the job done before hour 240 - likely too fast, but very cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Def. some decent hits among the overnight EPS members (all 50 as a gif): 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The 12z GFS and ICON are very close to a snowstorm now on the 8th/9th for NE TN. The ICON has measurable snow here, and the GFS just pasted all of western North Carolina and NE TN from Sullivan Co eastward. Event has to be "super close" in regards to temps as WxBell has a major event but TT does not. WxBell has 5-6" across NE TN in the valleys. The ICOn has 2-4." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Pivotal has the NE TN snowfall on Jan 8th on its site. Sharp, sharp cutoff. 6-7" from say Hawkins Co to the east. Trends will be a total bear for this. I would not assume this system trends NW as previous systems have. This has been treading steadily SE as the block has been felt - so, this could be a one off. However, seeing a couple of models jump on this system at 12z at least catches my eye. Would be feeling really good in western NC about right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Kuchera ratios drop 19 on SW VA. A Boone to Wytheville special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Looks like the GFS is going to make an attempt on the second one too. Maybe for more areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Noticing some wide spread with snowfall algorithms with the 12z GFS. Pivotal looks reasonable. The 12z CMC just pasted all of NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The 12z CMC has 4-8' in the valleys on the 8th and 9th of NE TN with a foot in the mountains. So, that is the CMC, GFS, and ICON that have this now. No idea if real, but worth a look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 As for Kuchera or non-Kuchera, I just roll with whichever gives MBY more. LOL. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: As for Kuchera or non-Kuchera, I just roll with whichever gives MBY more That's the only way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like the GFS is going to make an attempt on the second one too. Maybe for more areas. That ended poorly, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Not sure I've ever seen something like the CMC's depiction of the shortwaves: the block is forcing energy over WY to go into UT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That ended poorly, lol. The -NAO, in my experience, is usually less of a culprit of pushing things to the GOM than say a really strong -EPO. There is really nothing to dig a storm deep into the south. I expect a lot of sliders, bowling balls, and systems that pop along the coast. Area of confluence is right over North Carolina. Whether it happens or not, that is the real question. However, this is why eastern valley folks like NAOs. Just stinks that we don't have a bit more cold to work with or these would snows and placement would simply be the questions vs having to have a perfect track. Bowling ball looks like it could certainly be a score for someone in the Upper South...question is where? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z GFS, CMC and ICON all trended further southeast with the 500 mb cutoff low. Stronger and slightly colder solutions. With marginal cold air we will certainly need the cutoff low to travel southeast of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Maybe this time it will work out better, lol. Looks like the GFS is going for a big storm toward the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Looks like I'm 0 - 2 today on predicting the GFS. But, still nice to see big highs trying to drop down consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The entry into the western forum area(in terms of latitude) is important. The 6z GFS-para vs the 12z GFS really illustrate this if memory serves me correctly. Para is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 That bowling ball appears to want to head SE and then ride up the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z UKMET has our cutoff swinging southeast of us and has an amped solution. Seems to be too warm based on the limited Pivotal Weather maps I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Putting my chips on the Canadian since it's the only one working out for me. It and the RGEM did do well with the Christmas event when every other modeling suite was too far East for the longest time. Not gonna hold my breath on anything being worked out before 24-36 hours out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I don't know what algorithm F5 weather uses for precip, but it looks promising: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I don't know what algorithm F5 weather uses for precip, but it looks promising:That looks really solid. Pivotal 10/1 map does not match up with that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z Euro...E TN people you are going to like this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The EURO is solid even for unelevated areas Plateau east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Something has changed in modeling for that many global models to all of the sudden reach agreement. My guess is that modeling has not caught up to this storm - trends could obviously be better or worse! LOL. We will certainly take a good 12z suite of operatonals though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z Euro trended NW and slightly less strung out. How much it climbs the coast is a big deal for NE TN folks. Right now, the CMC is right in the middle...and was closer to be correct with higher accumulations than other modeling at range. Again, really doubt modeling has caught up to this - if real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Something has changed in modeling for that many global models to all of the sudden reach agreement. My guess is that modeling has not caught up to this storm - trends could obviously be better or worse! LOL. We will certainly take a good 12z suite of operatonals though!Agreed. I’m not sure I’ve seen every single global model latch onto a similar solution in one run before. 12z GFS, EURO, CMC, ICON, UKMET all have a similar solution with someone in NE-TN/mountains/NC/SWVA getting accumulating snow. Even the ACCESS-G (Australian) has a pasting for the mountains. Yes, I just found that model haha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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