January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.

[Coach B]

32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The strat warming is actually underway now. Whether we benefit or not remains to be seen. By by and large we eventually see more snow than normal in the 60 days that follow.  

Webber has pointed out the likelihood for a greater percentage of Miller A's or hybrids with the potential pattern later in January and through February. Anyone willing to share what that might mean for our general area?

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Coach B said:

Webber has pointed out the likelihood for a greater percentage of Miller A's or hybrids with the potential pattern later in January and through February. Anyone willing to share what that might mean for our general area?

Just forces everything underneath like we have had for the last month.  Systems take the low road.  The real question is whether we can get enough cold into the pattern.  If we can get the cold, that would be a very wintery pattern.  If not..cold rain and elevation snow.  For now, I think we will see more events to track if the SSW works in our favor.  I would actually be just fine with a PV that is knocked off center vs a total split.  The only danger in this is that the trough dumps into the West and holds.  That happened in 18-19 during that SSW, and also did that a couple of times during November without an SSW.  

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Coach B said:

Webber has pointed out the likelihood for a greater percentage of Miller A's or hybrids with the potential pattern later in January and through February. Anyone willing to share what that might mean for our general area?

 

Miller A's in January and February are by far our best way to get a big snow.  Average low temps forum area wide in mid January are cold enough for snow.  It mostly just has to not be well above average. The EPS above had 850s well below 32 with a storm signal in the gulf area and monster blocking over the top in the extended. If we also got the slight bump into +PNA territory it would be the rare winter triple play. Historically those periods are snowy and cold here. 

[nrgjeff]

Need to get rid of that bowling ball low sitting in the Gulf of Alaska. It's just killing cold air supply and surface temp forecasts. Temps are barely below zero on the North Slope and the Yukon. Mongolia took all the cold air, lol!

Otherwise BN heights in the Southeast is good. At least the storm track is proper. HSV and CHA might be better served with a Miller B given the lack of cold air supply. If Miller A I'm sorry I'll just have to wish for severe in the Deep South.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Need to get rid of that bowling ball low sitting in the Gulf of Alaska. It's just killing cold air supply and surface temp forecasts. Temps are barely below zero on the North Slope and the Yukon. Mongolia took all the cold air, lol!

Otherwise BN heights in the Southeast is good. At least the storm track is proper. HSV and CHA might be better served with a Miller B given the lack of cold air supply. If Miller A I'm sorry I'll just have to wish for severe in the Deep South.

Hopefully, it'll be shoved westward by HLB. Although La niña forcing may hamper that. 

      We can still get cold enuff even without strong cold advection.  Even can occasionally get enough eastern Canadian cold to help out.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks really good.  12z CFSv2 also does.  Very positive changes at high latitudes in regards to blocking(which was already good)

[John1122]

Was just coming to post about the EPS that Carver's just posted about. We are going to have to ride out a rainy/mild period for the next 10 days or so, but good things should be coming for peak winter, Jan 15th - Feburary 20th or so for the non-elevated valley.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For those of you who want to see what they are talking about:

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For those of you who want to see what they are talking about:

Big thing, as Jeff noted a day or so a go(and I was privately skeptica but that was a good, little nugget!), is ridging is building back into AK.  That is a much needed change.  Additionally, there is a low over the Aleutians which is 100% the opposite of last year.   If one was to draw-up a map for snow in this forum area, that is one of the looks.

[1234snow]

Big thing, as Jeff noted a day or so a go(and I was privately skeptica but that was a good, little nugget!), is ridging is building back into AK.  That is a much needed change.  Additionally, there is a low over the Aleutians which is 100% the opposite of last year.   If one was to draw-up a map for snow in this forum area, that is one of the looks.

I know this has already been stated but the big Aleutian low will probably kill our chances at cold for a couple of weeks. It is nice to see that feature retrograde westward over time to allow some ridging to develop.

[tnweathernut]

20 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I know this has already been stated but the big Aleutian low will probably kill our chances at cold for a couple of weeks. It is nice to see that feature retrograde westward over time to allow some ridging to develop.

I’ve always learned Aleutian low good, gulf of Alaska low bad..  guess it’s all positioning.

I’m sure what I learned (even if in error) is far too simplistic to use.

[John1122]

The GFS now has two potential snow events in the region between day 10 and day 15.  One was a doozy. Classic Miller A trapped under a block.  Long way to go but shows the potential of that blocking that's been showing up. And overall the GFS blocking is less impressive than the EPS for the same time frame.  

[John1122]

The Euro/EPS was basically even better than the 12z run today. Cold in place, a southern storm track. The GEFS looks way too warm for the 500mb pattern it's showing. The GOA low gets shunted west, a +PNA pops, the NAO is crazy negative. Should result in something good as it also falls in the most climatologically favorable time of the year for snow forum wide. 

[BullCityWx]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro/EPS was basically even better than the 12z run today. Cold in place, a southern storm track. The GEFS looks way too warm for the 500mb pattern it's showing. The GOA low gets shunted west, a +PNA pops, the NAO is crazy negative. Should result in something good as it also falls in the most climatologically favorable time of the year for snow forum wide. 

Yep. There was even a significant event on the control late in the run, even if it took a stupid track(a low is not going to go from Biloxi to Troy to Auburn to the Cumberland Plateau) with damming high in place and a significant -NAO. 

[tnweathernut]

21 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yep. There was even a significant event on the control late in the run, even if it took a stupid track(a low is not going to go from Biloxi to Troy to Auburn to the Cumberland Plateau with damming high in place and a significant -NAO. 

It's a good sign the EPS appears to be speeding up the transition the last several cycles.  Maybe we can work into something before the middle of January is past us..........

[AMZ8990]

16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It's a good sign the EPS appears to be speeding up the transition the last several cycles.  Maybe we can work into something before the middle of January is past us..........

Looks like a positive storm track for our areas is forming there on the EURO.  Rain Storm after rain storm pushes through the forum continually.  I like seeing that, just need some cold air to go with one of them and we could see a big winter storm develop.  Seems like the last few winters we’ve lacked abundant moisture in our prime winter months despite having cold air in place at times.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

Yep. There was even a significant event on the control late in the run, even if it took a stupid track(a low is not going to go from Biloxi to Troy to Auburn to the Cumberland Plateau) with damming high in place and a significant -NAO. 

Yeah, we're gonna see that as models try to adjust to the block. If the strong blocking is realised, models will trend south with systems within medium range the closer we get to their arrival.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Saw this tweet in the NYC subforum:

 

[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Saw this tweet in the NYC subforum:

Really rare event unfolding thousands of miles away from us.  Thanks for sharing, let's see how low she can go!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC implies a couple of wintery threats beginning round the 8th.

[tnweathernut]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC implies a couple of wintery threats beginning round the 8th.

The massive blocking is beginning to exert itself with these OP runs.  Likely too warm for the first system or two, but definitely a trend to be cooler than initially shown.  Legit winter threats will emerge if we keep reeling in these looks.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Lawd

 

 

Have

 

 

Mercy

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A storm within 10 days, even gets close for TRI and elevation:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And after looking at the 500mb look on the Euro OP,  I'm eager to see what the Control has to offer past day 10. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I absolutely cannot wait to see the Control's precip. panels for this time period.

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS

 

[weathertree4u]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I absolutely cannot wait to see the Control's precip. panels for this time period.

 

 

West TN/KY do well - something to track!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

As stingy as peepaw EPS usually is, this isn't a bad mean for days 10 - 15:

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS has moved up the return to a better pattern from Jan 10th to the 7th.

[Carvers Gap]

Some big differences between the ECMWF and American suite of modeling in terms of the MJO.  Euro is much colder, and is reflected this afternoon by its ensemble.  I probably lean Euro - mainly because I like its colder pattern!  Yeah, I am biased in this case....