John1122 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Olhausen said: Basically saying nothing but a few snow showers mixed with rain for here. Obviously the better call with model differences. But man if the gfs is correct it’s going catch a lot folks off guard in middle Tennessee It didn't back down at 0z. It's either going to have a wacky coup or be hilariously wrong this close to the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, John1122 said: It didn't back down at 0z. It's either going to have a wacky coup or be hilariously wrong this close to the event. Tell me about it. Look at the 0z Ensemble for Portland Tennessee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 HRRR looks decent north of 40 state wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 NAM beginning to catch on maybe. This is massively up from 0z which was almost a blank outside the mountains. I swear it seems like the Christmas eve event saw the same models doing the same but the GFS and Canadian have flipped. Seems like the NAM at 84 was good then in collapsed til the last minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 NWS just issued a WWA for us.....for 1-2 inches . Surprised because they've been saying rain and snow mix no accumulating snow the last few days. Hope it pans out! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Right on cue after models keep us reeled in. Hrrr backing off BIG time across middle and Eastern TN. Trending warmer by the hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The HRRR thinks the temps are going to nose up into the low to mid 50s in the central and even northern, Eastern Valley. If it's right about that, then we will have a problem. I just can't see enough cold catching up to the moisture as it swings through in the evening after peak heating is insulated by the clouds. I'm not happy about it, but it is what it is, if the HRRR is right. 3km NAM keeps a little more cold over SW VA. I think we'll probably have a better sense of what happens by 2 PM. Most models have the 850 low moving across the souther plateau or rounding the base of the Apps by then and we should be able to see what damage any SW flow/ insolation (even with clouds) has done. I'm interested in the potential for an anafront/ wave riding a front in the Feb 6-8 time frame. Most models are showing some potential for that after the big front swings through on the 4/5th. Ensembles still seem to think NA will finally get some of that nice cold Siberian air to work with....eventually. Whenever that happens, I think is our best board wide chance. We've had sooooo many marginal, wishy washy events, if we could just get some decent arctic air injected into or building in North America, it would help so much. Looks like some version of the NAO is going to hang around, but without arctic air to work with, it seems like we end up with gray, cool, and damp weather and days like yesterday seem miraculously warm. So hopefully we get some arctic air for that NAO to block, instead of just a storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: what damage any SW flow/ insolation (even with clouds) has done. And if the sun actually comes out and we get even a couple of hours of daytime heating.... that is def. not good. there is some clearing in West TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: And if the sun actually comes out and we get even a couple of hours of daytime heating.... that is def. not good. there is some clearing in West TN Yeah this one may be a lost cause. Temps in the 50s just a couple hrs before it’s supposed to snow never sounds fun. Sounds like cold chasing moisture to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Suns breaking thru here with about 55% Cloudcover. Current Temp. of 42. Lt. East wind. Hopefully, clouds fill back in soon but, not liking setup with this one. Timing hurts us . As far as HRRR and couple other SR Model's, they've performed rather poor here with a couple of the events this season , having had us getting under an inch right up to the event. Basically the entire County got 3-6". Of course, there's a reason for that I won't go n2 now and only pertains to this general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still very much like the time frame after Feb5th. Take a look at the 12z GFS...hard not to like that run. The 12z GEFS is also nice in the direction it is heading. I don't think winter is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 55 in Knoxville, upper 30’s in Jamestown . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 55 in Knoxville, upper 30’s in Jamestown .Temp went from 55 to 45 in 2 hours Edit: just realized we have a ops thread. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Dropping fast here with a brisk Northerly wind , 5 to 20 mph. Went from 54.4 to 44.2 in an hour and 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Happy hour Para FTW: 12z EPS starting to see some hits in that time frame too (just using Crossville as an example of the time frame): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The LR doesn't look half bad on multiple operational and ensemble runs. We will see how the pattern develops after the 5th. The 18z GEFS, after pushing the idea of a western tough, is not so much anymore. We will likely have a strong cold front around the 5/6th depending on our location in the forum area. After that is the topic of great discussion. Strong amplifications during February can be interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Long range GFS is just absolutely epic cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC and Euro are starting to dump the trough in the west, after the the big front on the 5 - 6. The GFS is keeping it more towards the center of the US or east (as John has above). I'm glad that its long range, so it could change, but I would rather see the GFS have some back up. The 12z Euro yesterday was more like the GFS at 240, so it could swing back. CMC and Euro have the dreaded flood look: GFS Para GFS splits the difference and tries to dump the trough back in the west, but it almost gets strongarmed east by a STJ streak: Some of the CMC and EPS members apparently see the trough making it east too, given that some (maybe a 1/4) see some snowfall after the big front on the 5th or 6th. GEFS is also trying to dump the trough back out west, but, like the CMC ensembles, it eventually pulls it east: . Good to see all models agree that there is the opportunity for some cross polar flow with arctic ridging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 hours ago, John1122 said: Long range GFS is just absolutely epic cold. Once a decade cold. Brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: Once a decade cold. Brrrrr Yeah, 6z already REALLY backed away from that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 hours ago, Calderon said: Yeah, 6z already REALLY backed away from that extreme. Still shows possibility of an outbreak. Models flip per usual. If MJO goes cold phases and blocking remains may not be so unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 hours ago, John1122 said: Long range GFS is just absolutely epic cold. Nashville and its heat island...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: CMC and Euro are starting to dump the trough in the west, after the the big front on the 5 - 6. The GFS is keeping it more towards the center of the US or east (as John has above). I'm glad that its long range, so it could change, but I would rather see the GFS have some back up. The 12z Euro yesterday was more like the GFS at 240, so it could swing back. CMC and Euro have the dreaded flood look: GFS Para GFS splits the difference and tries to dump the trough back in the west, but it almost gets strongarmed east by a STJ streak: Some of the CMC and EPS members apparently see the trough making it east too, given that some (maybe a 1/4) see some snowfall after the big front on the 5th or 6th. GEFS is also trying to dump the trough back out west, but, like the CMC ensembles, it eventually pulls it east: . Good to see all models agree that there is the opportunity for some cross polar flow with arctic ridging. With persistent blocking, we're gonna have to keep eye on MJO. Models struggling due to it and Niña state affects on pattern I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: With persistent blocking, we're gonna have to keep eye on MJO. Models struggling due to it and Niña state affects on pattern I believe. Masiello was talking about some AAM being injected poleward, so that would support that. But it is Masiello, so he could have been trying to say anything. I'm just glad to see big highs in play in Canada. I feel like we haven't seen that at all this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12z Para was a pretty good run: Euro was west with the trough again, but it looked like it could swing east, def. a big high trying to press in to the north: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro may be falling to its hanging back energy bias, as that would definitely help pull that trough westward. May be looking at a Center of Country based one for a bit b4 coming East if MJO propagates from say , 7 to 8. Either way, with blocking Central based can produce . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro Weeklies say winter is not over. Initial cold push around the 5th. About 6 days later the trough returns and slams the door on spring. As Boone notes, if the Euro is holding back a bit in the West, the entire trough could come east around the 5th and settles into a full latitude trough. Nice look. Let's reel it in. Basically the message is more cold than warm, but some warm still embedded after the 5th. Implies a late spring. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Just having some fun. AO/NAO remaining negative, MJO heading into favorable phases, and the GFS dancing with record cold has the stock trending up. What does natural gas look like today and/or energy futures? I never look at them, but if those start going up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro depiction of how things evolve looks like good overrunning potential. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM drops the remnant upper low for the weekend system over E KY/ SW VA and NE TN, which helps generate some more snow showers, than if the NAM is right (drops it in further NE) I feel like this is one of those situations where the RGEM does better than the NAM, but exactly where vorticity lobes go, even a few days out, is anyone's guess. Euro leans toward the RGEM: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now