January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, it'll be right . Euro's really not that far off. I think it still has a bit of warm bias so, who knows. May be reason of its Christmas Eve failure of sorts or could be it has a weakness with anafrontal situations or that was just a fluke by it.

RGEM has been missing changeover times here by a fairly wide margin.  It does a great job though of identifying a threat and remaining consistent if real.  The Euro actually nailed the snow here last Thursday which Is why I want it on board.  When both the RGEM and Euro have something short range, I feel pretty good about the chance of occurrence.

[Daniel Boone]

Grit posted a Noaa MJO update a little while ago in Southeastern. I didn't take time to check it out, other than them saying it's gaining amp in WPAC.

[AMZ8990]

Picked up about 3 inches so far up here in Des Moines.  

[John1122]

Another decent night of runs on the models. Even the UK edged it's snow up a little bit where it had been blanking most everyone. 

Models seem to be coming towards the 1-3 inch area along and north of 40 with 1 inch being much more common. Much heavier at elevation in the far east. The GFS and Canadian are showing another light 1-3 inch type system for some of us a few days later too. 

We will see if the European comes around any or not. 

 

[Icy Hot]

For when John1122?

[fountainguy97]

Lol

 

[Carvers Gap]

Quick note:  Looks like the GEFS has pulled the coup in the LR which means its depiction of a warmer phase MJO is looking more likely to verify.  The EPS and GEPS have both moved towards GEFS solutions.  They push a front through around or just after the 5th, but quickly return the trough the the Mountain West.  We will see if that holds as there are many questions as to where the MJO goes after phase 7.  To me, it looks like it goes to 8, but we will see.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My bar has been pretty low for this upcoming system, so I would not be unhappy with the RGEM's depiction:

 

My big problem with this one has been that it is a fast moving, open wave and, as other have said, marginal events have typically verified, at least for MBY, a little on the low side. Dan'll probably clean up with it though, lol! If I'm looking at the RGEM correctly, there is an inverted trough idea showing up as well. If I had to pick a corridor to bust high on this one, it would be Grayson Highlands to High Knob and Wise, VA. 

 

 

 

The NAM was giving some warning signs of the boundary layer at this range for the last one, that lower elevations would have trouble changing over, unless the rates were high. There's some of that initially, but maybe not as much on their depictions this time, but for whatever reason, the NAMs and the RGEM really like the feature I've circled in red:

 

I don't know if that is an inverted trough, or some other synoptic feature, but it is more prominent across the models this time. In fact, the only Hi res model that doesn't have it is the 6z HRRR, but that is waaayyyy out there for the HRRR, so subject to significant change. 

 

6z Euro kinda has it too, but has more issues with the boundary layer, probably a valid concern given that tempos are in the mid 50s over much of the valley at this time, with a lot of SW flow still behind this last system and that we're waiting on the upper disturbance to swing through Wed night and pull the cold air in. 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 Looks like the GEFS has pulled the coup in the LR which means its depiction of a warmer phase MJO is looking more likely to verify.

I wouldn't be unhappy with that, if indeed this image is what works out:

 

The Roundy model may score another coup:

That is a whale of an EPO ridge and anything that can get some cold into Canada is a win at this point. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And, I'll add, that is not a "Frickin' Floodin' February" (TM) look either. (Although lose the NAO blocking and it could get that way, quick). 

[Daniel Boone]

Waterways are up here yhis morning . Measured 1.99" Rainfall from this System. 

      That along with residual snowmelt caused alot of standing water in lawns and pastures along with some streams coming over their banks last night.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I wouldn't be unhappy with that, if indeed this image is what works out:

 

The Roundy model may score another coup:

That is a whale of an EPO ridge and anything that can get some cold into Canada is a win at this point. 

If the EPO verifies, the EPS and GEPS will score the W.  I am referring to the persistent SER on the GEFS.  The EPS and GEPS have not had that until overnight for that time frame.  I still think the cold will push as evidenced by the EPS Weeklies.  But the GEFS look has been the lesser(re:winter) of the three IMO.

[Carvers Gap]

That said, I really need to look at the MJO before I post.  The EMON has the MJO going into phase 8, the GEFS is flirting with it, and the ECMWF is as well.  IF that is the case, modeling should send that trough into the East.  Those are not bad looks.  That trough "should" kick eastward.  Been following the TN coaching search while the wx is in lull, so take with a huge grain.

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That said, I really need to look at the MJO before I post.  The EMON has the MJO going into phase 8, the GEFS is flirting with it, and the ECMWF is as well.  IF that is the case, modeling should send that trough into the East.  Those are not bad looks.  That trough "should" kick eastward.  Been following the TN coaching search while the wx is in lull, so take with a huge grain.

  Good point's per usual Carvers. NOAA has a tendency to use the RMM and GEFS as you know. We all pretty much know their bias's.

[Jeff Co Vol]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That said, I really need to look at the MJO before I post.  The EMON has the MJO going into phase 8, the GEFS is flirting with it, and the ECMWF is as well.  IF that is the case, modeling should send that trough into the East.  Those are not bad looks.  That trough "should" kick eastward.  Been following the TN coaching search while the wx is in lull, so take with a huge grain.

The UT coaching searches are now the most exciting part of UT football. This particular search has been exceptionally entertaining.

Thanks to those of you who post weather stuff for the novices like me to read.

[Carvers Gap]

Evidently, the 12z GEPS has rediscovered the trough amplification in the East which it lost overnight.  MJO is having some effect here I think..  Monster EPO and NAO block.  Not saying that happens, but sharing the information from the run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro seemed like it was another tick in the right direction for tomorrow night, for the areas it was already favoring. 

MRX seems rather bullish (don't know that there's too high a ceiling) on this one, at least for some areas. 

 

 

[John1122]

I don't know what got into the GFS, but bring it on! 

[Daniel Boone]

Anyone know much about the IBM Graff Model ? Anyway, it is the "in house " model WCYB in Bristol uses.

     Just curious as I conversed with them recently as was curious because of its forecasted failures as far as Lee, Claiborne and Hancock Counties were concerned. 

   

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro seems like yet another small tick in the right direction for TRI, especially Bristol and JC:

[1234snow]

Anyone know much about the IBM Graff Model ? Anyway, it is the "in house " model WCYB in Bristol uses.
     Just curious as I conversed with them recently as was curious because of its forecasted failures as far as Lee, Claiborne and Hancock Counties were concerned. 
   

I do know that it handled the big storm early on that hit Albany, NY with 40” of snow very well. It showed the northwest shield of snow better than other models.

I haven’t saw the model brought up since then in any other storms.

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I do know that it handled the big storm early on that hit Albany, NY with 40” of snow very well. It showed the northwest shield of snow better than other models.

I haven’t saw the model brought up since then in any other storms.

 Just wondered as its been terrible here this Winter.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I hope it isn't right, lol:

 

Bizzaro world that WCYB would use that. I've only seen Ventrice tweet it occasionally. I thought most local news outlets used some version of the RAP for short range forecast graphics, also occasionally using the NAM. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z EPS mean got a lil boost from 12z.

12z Mean:

 

18z mean:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Big jump on some of the SREF members, I suspect a good NAMing incoming for somebody. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And, if there be no good 0z NAMing, blame the 21z ARW cores:

 

They seem to have decided that SWVA needed a whomping 

[Daniel Boone]

39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I hope it isn't right, lol:

 

Bizzaro world that WCYB would use that. I've only seen Ventrice tweet it occasionally. I thought most local news outlets used some version of the RAP for short range forecast graphics, also occasionally using the NAM. 

 

 

Yep. It has been stingy regarding Snow for the area all Season.  Like you, hopefully it won't score one.

[Daniel Boone]

31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Big jump on some of the SREF members, I suspect a good NAMing incoming for somebody. 

3k looks paltry.

[John1122]

I'm always amazed that the GFS and NAM can ingest the same data and likely use some of the same physics and can have such massively different outcomes. 

[Olhausen]

Basically saying nothing but a few snow showers mixed with rain for here. Obviously the better call with model differences. But man if the gfs is correct it’s going catch a lot folks off guard in middle Tennessee