nrgjeff Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1. Late week snow looks like a Plateau to Northeast Tennessee special, with the Mountains too, most of it post frontal. Of course that is a non-starter southern Tenn. 2. Per satellite, MJO is trying to nudge into colder phase 7, but it's a fine line because phase 6 becomes less cold late January and mild in February. Then some EPS members trying to go phase 8 by Day 14, which would firmly settle the issue - huge iff there at the end of the forecast period. 3. Atlantic side blocking and occasional Scandinavia ridging continues, delivering cold to Europe. Alaska ridge is still AWOL for at least 10 days with a trough West. Some ensembles hint at the trough moving east toward Day 14, replaced with AN heights West. That's the unreliable end of the forecast though. 4. Still had that strato warming about a month ago now. Statistical correlation is highest Europe, second highest Asia, and actually pretty low North America. However NA can get a delayed reaction, causation is debatable though in a blocky environment anyway. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 EPO ridge is at d9-10 on both the 12z GEPS and 12z EPS which is less unreliable time - bit quicker on the GEPS. So the driver to move that western trough eastward is not at d14, but is actually at d9/10. Certainly no certainty even at that range, but that is not d14 stuff I am noting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yes the WPO is there by Day 10. Still have a Western US trough though. Actually I trust Day 10 a lot more than Day 14. Anyway we'll look for progression WPO to EPO and get that west trough over here into Feb. Might be after the 5th of Feb. Fingers crossed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us. At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville. Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us. At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville. Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96. That's our money Model buddy ! Hopefully, it'll continue it's hot streak. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 56 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: That's our money Model buddy ! Hopefully, it'll continue it's hot streak. It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too. Yeah, always a little nervous when the Euro is not "in". I believe ur right on it being the Christmas Eve event it had trouble with. Could be there's a bit of a weakness with it regarding anafrontal precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z GFSV16 finally ran. Good run for many of us except as Jeff pointed out, the Chattanooga area. The waves like the anafrontal Christmas event very evident again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, John1122 said: 18z GFSV16 finally ran. Good run for many of us except as Jeff pointed out, the Chattanooga area. The waves like the anafrontal Christmas event very evident again. Is that due to some sort of deformation band coming through? I remember the same type of output from the Christmas event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS and GEM aren't nearly as heavy as the v16 but both have almost valleywide snow. If we can get the Euro on board I'd feel decent about some 1 to 2 inch potential for a lot of us. Especially since it's generally coming at night. The V16 wasn't as exciting as 18z but didn't back off much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: That's a nice snow island right over my house ^ And a nice snow hole right over mine, as always. Here in extreme west knox county I have not seen the grass covered in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 And a nice snow hole right over mine, as always. Here in extreme west knox county I have not seen the grass covered in 2 years.Your grass wasn’t covered on Christmas Eve this year?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Your grass wasn’t covered on Christmas Eve this year? . No, a mile east, yes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z RGEM was fairly solid for NETN and SWVA. Plateau picked up a couple of digital inches as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Canadian was beastly for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The NAM and GFSv16/GFS all seem to support at least a widespread inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Let's hope the RGEM keeps the hot hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That 4.8" is right over my house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Want to see the Euro on board for NE TN...has been really good this winter when it showed snow here and when it did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Only problem I have with the RGEM/CMC combo is that it has been a hair too cold IMBY which is causing it to overestimate snowfall here - matters especially when changeover times matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro looks like an improvement over 6z for some areas, but not by much if you just go by the snow maps: 6z: 12z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just had a rumble of thunder here! Forgot what it sounded like ha! Maybe that bodes well for the Thursday-Friday system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Each model seems to handle different systems much better than others. The Euro was really bad here for the anafrontal Christmas eve event. It didn't catch on until the last minute if I recall correctly. The Canadian/RGEM was pretty close for mby but probably had too much in other areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Went back and looked, the UK and Euro were throwing up blanks to 1 inch totals for Christmas eve 72 hours out. Doesn't mean they will be wrong this time, but the Canadian/GFS was doing much better with it by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Only problem I have with the RGEM/CMC combo is that it has been a hair too cold IMBY which is causing it to overestimate snowfall here - matters especially when changeover times matter. It has been the most accurate in Lee County and from what I gather, along the Cumberland range. The others run a bit warm for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 36 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: It has been the most accurate in Lee County and from what I gather, along the Cumberland range. The others run a bit warm for here. It still is my favorite for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just to re-iterate what we have been saying for several days, the 12z EPS and GEPS are still advertising a strong trough amplification in the East around Feb5th. As noted, the changes which force the trough eastward on those models are now almost at d10 with the trough following soon after. The 12z EPS is stronger and very slightly faster (w just a quick glance). Euro Weeklies look like periodic shots of cold throughout February. It is worth noting that the 12z GEFS remains steadfast in its depiction of an eastern ridge. At this point the MJO has a strong say in what happens downstream and obviously the GEFS and EPS are much different with their indices in the mid to late range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I still is my favorite for sure. Hopefully, it'll be right . Euro's really not that far off. I think it still has a bit of warm bias so, who knows. May be reason of its Christmas Eve failure of sorts or could be it has a weakness with anafrontal situations or that was just a fluke by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Think it is going to be a month where troughs move east, lift out, reload, and happens again. The SER will slip in between those troughs at times. At this point, that is just a timing issue. I don't think I have seen a single person calling for sustained cold, but....this is a pattern which could produce as nearly every cold shot has produced frozen precip this winter in this forum area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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