Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: We start losing climo and start gaining sun angle at that point. . If I'm whipping out Roundy's 45 day plots, we gotta take what we can get, lol. The Euro says it's happening for NE sections: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: If I'm whipping out Roundy's 45 day plots, we gotta take what we can get, lol. The Euro says it's happening for NE sections: Looks reasonable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 12z EPS has moved towards the good look that the 12z GEPS has. GEPS is a true 95-96 look. EPS is not far off that mark. GEPS start date is around d11 and EPS is around d14. Both basically open up a path from AK(super cold temps) into the lower 48. Realistic look and I would lean in that direction if forced to pick. Guessing the GEPS has this as the EPS is probably holding back just a hair in the West which is a known bias. Good trends from those two ensembles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z EPS has moved towards the good look that the 12z GEPS has. GEPS is a true 95-96 look. EPS is not far off that mark. GEPS start date is around d11 and EPS is around d14. Both basically open up a path from AK(super cold temps) into the lower 48. Realistic look and I would lean in that direction if forced to pick. Guessing the GEPS has this as the EPS is probably holding back just a hair in the West which is a known bias. Good trends from those two ensembles. Honestly believe it when it is within 72 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Honestly believe it when it is within 72 hours Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I'm happy for the MA folks. It seems like they've had it worse than we have. Honestly nice to at least see some CAD patterns showing up. If they can break their drought, maybe it bodes well for others. You NE TN and SW VA folks might get in on one of these too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Great. Middle and West folks have not really seen anything this season so my skepticism is warranted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Friend just shared this with me, and I 100% concur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Middle and West folks have not really seen anything this season so my skepticism is warranted. Skepticism is welcome. Frustration directed towards posters who have no control over the weather is something I try to avoid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm happy for the MA folks. It seems like they've had it worse than we have. Honestly nice to at least see some CAD patterns showing up. If they can break their drought, maybe it bodes well for others. You NE TN and SW VA folks might get in on one of these too. I agree. We complain about our back yard but those guys up north are actually in prime areas for snow and they’ve had a rougher go of it the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 It’s easy to get frustrated. Lord knows I am when talking about MBY. I also know it’s a product of where I live and partly luck-of-the draw. OTOH, I’m glad locations near me (and very near at that) have done ok so far this winter. At least that give me solace knowing that it CAN still snow in this neck of the woods. I’m actually thankful to have at least been in the ballgame this winter with some of the pre-season forecasts that were out there. Hopefully we’ll have a more favorable pattern statewide before winter is over. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Overnight Ensembles cause heh, it's been a while: EPS GEFS: GEPS Some of the individual storms on the OP GFS kind of remind me of the year Boston got like a trillion inches of snow, whichever year that was. Now, I 100% admit I don't entirely remember what that pattern was, but there were some late bloomers off of the NE coast on the 6z GFS. I was about to look at the tropics again, but saw this on satellite: Just gonna throw out there that whatever that is south of Baja, is probably not good for those, like me, who don't want a ton of rain next week. Now, if you want more rain, that looks promising. Hopefully the NAO can shear it out or help keep it suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I mean, what even is that convection south of Baja? It's the healthiest blob of convection near the tropics in the N Hemisphere right now: Some of that in the MC, N of the equator is close, but even compared to yesterday the MC looks comparatively quiet. Indian Ocean looks dead, at least N of the equator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I think a lot of this has to do with the MJO being predicted to go phases 5/6 which are very warm vs the -NAO which is quite negative. One thing I notice is the variations in the Pacific trough. As Webber noted, there is super fine line between cold and total torch and nothing in between after d10. If the ridge, like the EPS, sets up closer to the Pac Coast....the trough will extend eastward in a 95-96 fashion. The GEFS is nearly a completely different solution with that eastern Pac ridge. Again, I tend to support the EPS solution. I feel the Euro stuff has superior physics when it comes to juggling multiple features: SSW, conflicting Pac/Atl features, changing wavelengths, etc. It is not infallible, and I definitely don't hug that model. However, I think the idea that cold pushes eastward is legit. As a side note, take some time and go back through the winter run-up thread. I think our ideas from that thread(dating back to summer and earlier) have been really good and have encompassed a lot of what has occurred this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6z Euro for NE sections: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I know we have climo help till the middle of February but winter isn’t looking healthy right now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z GFS has a window for a storm around 180. Missed the phase by just a hair, but that setup could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1044 high sitting over a potential slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z CMC has the same piece of energy but gets the hp out in front to the storm and creates a CAD situation east of the Apps. Definitely something to be watched with that much higher pressured to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Minus the real cold, can't complain up here snowfall wise, "yet", lol. We have saw warm , -NAO linkage , MJO finally gaining Amp. out of COD, on models more than once so far this Winter and it didn't happen. So, even though I'm more Leary this time, especially with the Niña Aleutian ridge in place now. However, I'm still leaning somewhat in favor of a similar thing happening this go around. EPS ftw, 60/40 %. Main thing to watch I believe is the MJO . As Carvers aluded, is prob. what is causing the warm east progression. That and of course the Pac Ridge position , of which proximity of MJO would affect as well, along with Niña forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Of note the 12z GFS is significantly colder than other modeling after 180. Let's see if the Euro supports it at all. The GFS has a tendency to spot cold shots first, but the CMC is not supporting it which makes me wonder if it's a red herring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The 6z GFS Para is not overly warm. Will be interesting if models trend somewhat colder at 12z - jury seems split on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z ICON does lend some support to the GFS with the big 1044 high over the top late in its run. IF that high is real, that is going to be factor and a nice improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 For NE TN folks, that little shot of precip over night is showing up as accumulating snow for portions of NE TN on the Euro and ice on the GFS. The 12z RGEM also has wintry precip for portions of NE TN. Something to keep an eye on....could make the morning commute interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 For NE TN folks, that little shot of precip over night is showing up as accumulating snow for portions of NE TN on the Euro and ice on the GFS. The 12z RGEM also has wintry precip for portions of NE TN. Something to keep an eye on....could make the morning commute interesting.Certainly another sneaky system that has the chance to over-perform for us. NAM isn’t as enthused. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I seem to recall seeing models trying to cut storms straight towards big highs in the past like the Euro does around 192-198. I don't think it ever has actually worked that way when it came verification time. With a -NAO and a HP north of it I just don't see the storm running up through from the Gulf to Eastern Kentucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodelwayne01 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, 1234snow said: Certainly another sneaky system that has the chance to over-perform for us. NAM isn’t as enthused. I’m not enthused! Winters aren’t what they used to be in East Tennessee! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro control are hinting at a potential trough amplification into the mid-section of the county. We need to pull for those solutions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, John1122 said: I seem to recall seeing models trying to cut storms straight towards big highs in the past like the Euro does around 192-198. I don't think it ever has actually worked that way when it came verification time. With a -NAO and a HP north of it I just don't see the storm running up through from the Gulf to Eastern Kentucky. Right with u on that buddy. I think it could be models are having a tough time balancing what a typical trough west ridge east solution with strong counter blocking. I guess it could come up so far but, would then more than likely transfer eastward. Hopefully for us, if it does it'll do so b4 coming that far North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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