jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Quote January 22-23, 2016 Snowstorm That was such a great storm for me. Walked out to go to work at 6:00, saw a light dusting and figured I'd wait just a bit to see how it went. Glad I waited because it got deep very quickly and rush hour got bad for a lot of people. We ended up with 9" and it was one of the biggest snows I've seen in my 36 year life here in Nashville. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122 Thanks for sharing! The image there is very accurate. I remember (living in the NW part of Cumberland County where it shows 10-10.5" on the map) getting sent home from work early due to the snow. My car already had about four inches of snow on it. I drove 8 miles Southeast into town to grab some food and chill at home. When I got to town there was no snow and it was still raining there and the drive thru woman asked where the heck I lived that there was that much snow already and I told her just a few miles up the road. Once it had quit snowing they were about six inches behind where we were just up the road due to the snow starting way sooner here with us being about 200ft higher elevation. It was one of the sharpest snow cutoffs I can remember here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I ended up with 8 inches of snow in that event and 20 miles south of me barely had an inch or two as the far eastern valley battled major mixing/rain/warm nosing. I remember some northern middle guys clocking 12-13 inches. SE Kentucky also got over 12. I had some sleet issues that kept my totals down and even had about 5 minutes of rain right in the middle of everything. By the end of the event and combined with the snow from 2 days prior I had just over 12 inches of snow on the ground. It was one of the best weeks of winter in a long while in the forum area in general. Especially the mid state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Monster winter storm on the Canadian late run. It's been solid at sniffing them out at range this year. Basically says western and southern forum doesn't need electricity. Then pounds some sleet down and then snow too further east. Heavy sleet, snow and freezing rain are still rolling almost forum wide at 240, it's only been going for a few hours north at East of Nashville by this point. 216-240 snow total. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 The timeframe on the canadian storm is the one we've seen on a few models. Nice caravan of high pressure above it too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Seems possible the MJO signal could go back into East Africa upcoming.The EURO does not seem to have any support from its ensembles. Edit:Maybe it does,i still haven't gotten use to these to these new colors on these maps on FRONTIER 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 hours ago, John1122 said: Monster winter storm on the Canadian late run. It's been solid at sniffing them out at range this year. Basically says western and southern forum doesn't need electricity. Then pounds some sleet down and then snow too further east. Heavy sleet, snow and freezing rain are still rolling almost forum wide at 240, it's only been going for a few hours north at East of Nashville by this point. 216-240 snow total. Now we just need a 500 mile SE jog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 hours ago, John1122 said: Monster winter storm on the Canadian late run. It's been solid at sniffing them out at range this year. Basically says western and southern forum doesn't need electricity. Then pounds some sleet down and then snow too further east. Heavy sleet, snow and freezing rain are still rolling almost forum wide at 240, it's only been going for a few hours north at East of Nashville by this point. 216-240 snow total. Now that looks like the trajectory/snowfall layout fro alot of the strong blocking years with similar Pacific config.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z CMC again shows a mess around 200 with a slider and some WAA characteristics rolled into one. Looks like we get a cold shot this weekend, then a retrograding ridge moving from east to west, and then the growing potential of another cold shot that slips in as the ridge moves westward into TX and/or the Southwest. That second cold shot looks very promising. Models still very much struggling with a lousy Pacific battling the -NAO which has continued to be persistent this winter(surprisingly so!!!). Strong cold signal for the Mountain West which is of zero surprise, and then we get periodic shots of cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Something interesting to watch...the 12z CMC actually has a backdoor cold front. Used to see those often, but not so much of recent. Just use Tropical Tidbits and toggle over to temp anomalies. Then, watch the temps move from the NE to SW after 200. You can see the retrograding pattern with surface temps. 12z GFS looks entirely too progressive to me FWIW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I can only imagine what a blockbuster Winter we would of had if the Pacific was in a better state. OTOH, minus the blocking and we may just be watching flowers bloom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: I can only imagine what a blockbuster Winter we would of had if the Pacific was in a better state. OTOH, minus the blocking and we may just be watching flowers bloom. Would have been torch city with no NAO. As is, what is crazy is that pretty much anytime we are seeing any type of cold, areas about 3K' are seeing frozen precip - even though most of the subform is well AN for January in regards to temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 We have only had eight days below freezing at TRI for January. We have had zero days with highs below freezing. Again, really feel like this is 89 battling 95-96 - both were extremes. Does sort of seem like warmer solutions are "winning" in modeling right now, but with that Greenland block in place I suspect we still have some cold to work with. Seems like the next cold shot(after this weekend's) is due just after the 25th. Looks ripe for mischief about then - if real. The 0z EPS was quite cold after d10, especially when it tends to have a warm bias in that range. Will be interesting to see if it holds that look at 12z as 0z was nearly perfect for sliders and systems attacking cold which extends from the Mountain West into the Southern Apps. Let's hope it doesn't keep getting pushed back. It is probably about three days later than forecast last week(off the top of my head), but still clearly on the overnight run of the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z GEFS is also pretty much locked onto the timeframe just after the 25th. If real(and we all know the rules about 10+day discussions), would be a very good potential window for the return of more widespread winter precip. That is the set-up that looks like 96. The ridge retrogrades westward next week, and the trough forms in its wake. The 12z CMC is a bit faster with that look as it retrogrades(see post above) cold in from eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 The much advertised "flip" to cold over NA is very stark when one looks at d1 and d10. Features a nearly complete reversal of AN temp anomalies. Hoping that is legit and doesn't just park itself in the West. The good thing is that "flip" is moving forward in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 The 12z GFS is how things could go badly and does not have support from the GEFS. The 12z para-GFS is how things could go well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Models still having trouble balancing out trough west and what normally should be ridge east deal to them, with the nowadays rare blocking. Spoke with Kmrx met earlier and was in agreement on that affecting models. Just not alot of input from strong blocking as opposed to the usual non blocking Winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Can’t a SSW event throw the mods off? Seems like I read that’s about to happen. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Can’t a SSW event through the mods off? Seems like I read that’s about to happen. . Definitely.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Can’t a SSW event through the mods off? Seems like I read that’s about to happen. . One happened from the 1st-5thish. It's about a 20 day lag time to truly hit the surface normally from what I've read. There is another split looking like it will happen soon. Heck, WBIR ran a story today about the polar vortex heading this way next week. It's not common we see that in January and when we do it gets really really cold. We were well below 0 in mid to late February last time we got it positioned well for us with no SE ridge interference. It visited the upper midwest a couple years ago but we had a strong SE ridge. It was -25 in Chicago and 60-70 degrees warmer here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 One happened from the 1st-5thish. It's about a 20 day lag time to truly hit the surface normally from what I've read. There is another split looking like it will happen soon. Heck, WBIR ran a story today about the polar vortex heading this way next week. It's not common we see that in January and when we do it gets really really cold. We were well below 0 in mid to late February last time we got it positioned well for us with no SE ridge interference. It visited the upper midwest a couple years ago but we had a strong SE ridge. It was -25 in Chicago and 60-70 degrees warmer here. I remember 2010-11 and I believe 2014 or 15’?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I remember 2010-11 and I believe 2014 or 15’? . I believe it was February 2015 but it could have been 2014. I was in the double digits below 0 around February 20th if I remember correctly without looking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z EPS is likely the coldest I have seen it for the d10-15 in a long time - some 13 degree BN departures over this forum area....in January that is COLD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I believe it was February 2015 but it could have been 2014. I was in the double digits below 0 around February 20th if I remember correctly without looking. It was 2015. First winter in our new to us home.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6z GFS has today's snow, another light clipper Sunday night, a storm south of the forum region around 144-162 that snows in a bit of the area, but has oddly little qpf in the colder areas. Then a major winter storm for the Western half of the state at 234-240ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 0z Euro has 1-2" of snow for NE TN on the 23rd, and has snow for the Plateau and mountains - was a nice look. Looks like TYS to the NE got snow on that run around 168. As John noted, the 6z GFS looked good as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Couple of notes before going out running in this mess. 12z CMC is picking up on the potential for next weekend's system. The 12z GFS is freakin' cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Yet again Masiello has said just enough for me to think I know what he means, but not quite sure, lol... The replies he has to "Vital Sine" below that are the part I'm talking about. The idea of a SSW event cooling the tropopause at the tropics has been discussed before. If he's right (and I'm reading this correctly) it seems like he expects a coherent MJO signal to move into more favorable areas in the Western Pac. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 12z Euro still has the storm others were discussing above, but the thermals are a bit warmer at 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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