Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just looking at the 6z Euro and 12z GEM, not sure this system on the 11th and 12th will be benign. If anything our northern MS posters have something to track for a bit. The 6z Euro was sneaking frozen precip into the forum area. 12z GEM is just west of that. The GFS was terrible with the current system. Now, not saying everyone received snow, but it failed to identify any snow in NE TN until the last minute. Euro was too aggressive...GFS to weak. As John noted, the Canadian has been during fairly well. Might be a bit too amped at times with accums, but did ok. The RGEM identified the Sullivan Co snow band at decent range this last time. Would not surprise me at all that the GFS is just too washed out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Kingsport called school today(crazy since were are on virtual, right?). So, I have some time to catchup on modeling. Was barely able to track this last system - had somebody keeping me up to date. Wasn't able to catch-up until last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Interesting discussion by Joe D'Aleo today about the lack of airplane data, specifically less data about jet streams. This is nothing new, but he floated the idea that some of the bouncing around of modeling at LR may well be to lack of sample data. He did note that the Euro takes the cold from the strat split to Asia, and the American/Canadian models now bring it to NA. This creates a much different look over NA after the 20th. Now, it is still entirely possible the mother load of the cold stuff is going to dump into the West - can find very few LR models that show it make inroads into the East. However, though 500 maps like like poo, the actual surface maps are much colder between the MS River and the spine of the Apps - speaking after d10. If a piece of the TPV drops into southern Canada, which I actually think is likely(I like the GFS with strat splits), then that cold may well push eastward and fight the SER shown on most modeling. Anyway, just going to close by re-iterating that we may be lacking some of our normal data which drives modeling...and is causing some wider than normal variation. That may well be contributing to models taking a longer than normal time to hone-in on a solution with winter storms. Of note, like John, I feel the Canadian has done remarkable well with both short, medium, and LR work. I think the chances for a major winter storm along the EC are increasing as the cold drops south and interacts with a ridge that will allow storms to climb along the EC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Looking like the AO could tank around week 3,GFS wants to drop the bomb in the long range and finally shows a decent PNA,would be the coldest we've seen in decades if it were to be believed GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN08 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 08-JAN 33.8 29.1 01008 FRI 18Z 08-JAN 35.3 33.4 35.1 31.6 34008 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 09-JAN 36.4 34.1 34.3 29.3 34007 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 09-JAN 34.3 30.8 30.8 26.4 33005 0.00 95 SAT 12Z 09-JAN 30.7 28.3 28.4 25.2 34005 0.00 97 SAT 18Z 09-JAN 33.9 28.2 33.9 23.7 36006 0.00 90 SUN 00Z 10-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.4 24.4 01005 0.00 71 SUN 06Z 10-JAN 31.6 28.0 28.1 23.5 01003 0.00 44 SUN 12Z 10-JAN 27.9 26.6 26.6 22.9 01003 0.00 9 SUN 18Z 10-JAN 39.1 26.5 39.1 23.9 02004 0.00 13 MON 00Z 11-JAN 40.4 32.9 32.9 23.5 35003 0.00 89 MON 06Z 11-JAN 32.9 29.9 30.2 24.5 01003 0.00 52 MON 12Z 11-JAN 30.4 29.0 29.2 24.7 02003 0.00 88 MON 18Z 11-JAN 38.8 29.6 37.5 31.3 10002 SN 0.02 100 TUE 00Z 12-JAN 37.4 34.7 35.1 34.5 33002 SN 0.13 100 TUE 06Z 12-JAN 35.7 34.8 35.1 33.8 32005 0.03 100 TUE 12Z 12-JAN 34.9 29.4 29.4 27.8 32004 0.00 52 TUE 18Z 12-JAN 42.3 28.7 42.2 28.2 29002 0.00 8 WED 00Z 13-JAN 43.7 35.3 35.3 28.1 24004 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.2 26.5 22004 0.00 0 WED 12Z 13-JAN 31.2 29.6 29.6 26.0 20005 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-JAN 45.3 29.5 45.3 32.6 22007 0.00 0 THU 00Z 14-JAN 47.3 38.5 38.5 33.4 20005 0.00 12 THU 06Z 14-JAN 38.6 35.4 35.5 33.7 20006 0.00 33 THU 12Z 14-JAN 35.5 33.5 33.5 32.7 19006 0.00 16 THU 18Z 14-JAN 50.1 33.5 50.1 38.9 20010 0.00 18 FRI 00Z 15-JAN 53.3 45.1 45.1 39.0 22007 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 45.1 40.4 41.2 35.1 31010 0.02 63 FRI 12Z 15-JAN 41.1 34.0 34.0 28.5 25007 0.00 57 FRI 18Z 15-JAN 39.8 33.8 39.7 24.0 28012 SN 0.00 24 SAT 00Z 16-JAN 40.1 34.3 34.3 25.0 29007 0.01 99 SAT 06Z 16-JAN 34.2 28.3 28.3 21.1 30005 0.00 64 SAT 12Z 16-JAN 28.3 26.4 26.4 16.6 28007 0.00 41 SAT 18Z 16-JAN 34.9 26.1 34.9 15.2 26005 0.00 67 SUN 00Z 17-JAN 38.8 34.1 34.9 21.3 19006 0.00 66 SUN 06Z 17-JAN 35.9 34.1 35.7 22.5 20010 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 17-JAN 36.2 35.2 35.7 24.9 20010 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 17-JAN 44.4 35.5 44.4 33.3 23012 0.00 100 MON 00Z 18-JAN 45.4 36.0 35.9 28.0 29008 0.00 78 MON 06Z 18-JAN 36.2 30.1 30.1 22.6 30007 0.00 90 MON 12Z 18-JAN 29.9 27.1 27.3 22.2 24005 0.00 25 MON 18Z 18-JAN 43.0 27.1 43.0 24.9 27008 0.00 2 TUE 00Z 19-JAN 45.2 36.6 36.5 27.5 24005 0.00 22 TUE 06Z 19-JAN 36.5 32.1 32.1 26.6 23002 0.00 20 TUE 12Z 19-JAN 32.0 28.5 28.6 25.2 05004 0.00 74 TUE 18Z 19-JAN 43.8 28.1 43.8 28.6 07002 0.00 70 WED 00Z 20-JAN 45.2 38.4 38.4 27.6 03008 0.00 97 WED 06Z 20-JAN 38.4 30.1 30.2 29.1 06007 SN 0.13 100 WED 12Z 20-JAN 30.3 28.5 28.5 27.7 03009 SN 0.21 100 WED 18Z 20-JAN 31.6 26.8 31.6 30.4 00008 0.09 91 THU 00Z 21-JAN 31.9 24.0 24.0 21.4 33003 0.00 75 THU 06Z 21-JAN 23.7 20.6 20.9 17.3 23003 0.00 0 THU 12Z 21-JAN 22.2 20.1 21.8 18.6 21006 0.00 0 THU 18Z 21-JAN 31.9 21.8 31.5 29.1 28009 SN 0.00 54 FRI 00Z 22-JAN 31.6 23.8 23.8 19.4 31008 0.02 98 FRI 06Z 22-JAN 23.6 14.2 14.2 8.5 31008 0.00 68 FRI 12Z 22-JAN 14.0 7.7 7.8 1.8 31007 0.00 22 FRI 18Z 22-JAN 13.1 7.1 13.1 3.7 31009 0.00 61 SAT 00Z 23-JAN 14.0 10.6 10.6 4.0 31006 SN 0.01 100 SAT 06Z 23-JAN 10.6 5.9 6.0 -1.0 31005 0.00 69 SAT 12Z 23-JAN 5.8 3.1 3.1 -4.2 30005 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 23-JAN 12.3 2.7 12.3 2.5 30007 0.00 4 SUN 00Z 24-JAN 15.6 10.4 11.1 5.4 28003 0.00 23 SUN 06Z 24-JAN 11.2 9.4 9.5 4.6 24002 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 24-JAN 9.6 8.7 9.0 3.8 14002 0.00 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 12z UKMET for the Monday Tuesday storm: Still looking good fo some of the Mississippi folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just looking at the 6z Euro and 12z GEM, not sure this system on the 11th and 12th will be benign. If anything our northern MS posters have something to track for a bit. The 6z Euro was sneaking frozen precip into the forum area. 12z GEM is just west of that. The GFS was terrible with the current system. Now, not saying everyone received snow, but it failed to identify any snow in NE TN until the last minute. Euro was too aggressive...GFS to weak. As John noted, the Canadian has been during fairly well. Might be a bit too amped at times with accums, but did ok. The RGEM identified the Sullivan Co snow band at decent range this last time. Would not surprise me at all that the GFS is just too washed out. Yeah, definitely don't want to come across as saying it's not happening. My post was regarding Tennesseans. Just when looking at everything there doesn't appear to be much of a chance for anything greater than a possible 1-2, type of event once to Tennessee. Certainly for our brothers and sisters just south of the TN border in northern MS and northern AL I'd be keeping a much more watchful eye on this one. Chances for a 3-6" type system may set up somewhere in their location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 And the 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I hope I don't jinx you @AMZ8990 but hopefully this is one for you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I think there is room for improvement for folks further N and E in TN, depending on how it interacts with the two pieces of energy I've circled: Those are the two that really screw with it and wring and stretch it out. Without those two, you might have another bowling ball situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 euro did come back nw some there, it had less of a punch but it did come back northwest some. But right now I am preparing for being 0-2, first wave didn't even get rain in my area and there was a scant flurry it you looked real hard this morning. Otherwise nothing, but at least I was expecting anything from wave 1 and it actually did better for some than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I hope I don't jinx you @AMZ8990 but hopefully this is one for you. Haha. You can’t jinx us anymore than we’ve already been jinxed, lol. Hopefully this one or one soon will pan out for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Something else to keep an eye on, (nothing to get excited about, but interesting). GFS warms the strat again from hour 300 onward: Some renewed warming on the 0z Euro out to hr 240 too: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodelwayne01 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Vol4Life said: How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN? Just seems like us in East Tennessee are snow starved! Wet cold rain today under a winter storm warning. Go figure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: And the 12z Euro: Was looking a bit more closely...looks like that storm is really affected by time of day. I like that track quite a bit. Just going to have to watch it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Was looking a bit more closely...looks like that storm is really affected by time of day. I like that track quite a bit. Just going to have to watch it. With lows generally in the 20's and daytime highs in the mid 30's to around 40 from now until the system comes in I agree we will need to watch it. If the timing can speed up a 1/2 day there would likely be morning road issues somewhere in Tennessee (most likely west)............ not to mention the possible issues in northern MS and possibly AL where heavier precip will be closer in proximity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Was looking a bit more closely...looks like that storm is really affected by time of day. I like that track quite a bit. Just going to have to watch it. Was thinking the same thing in terms of time of day this arrives. Could make or break the storm for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @AMZ8990 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 40 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @AMZ8990 My heart just skipped a beat Holston!!!! lol. Thanks for sharing buddy, I just hope that piece of energy doesn’t shear out as it moves north from Mississippi into Tennessee. High temp is forecasted at 37 on Monday right now for MBY, hopefully that holds or moves down a tad between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Went ahead and posted a thread for this system. It's almost universally modeled that at least Mississippi gets snow here. I know we have a Miss poster and would actually welcome more or even Louisiana posters. We welcome anyone in the SEC footprint*. *SC/Fla/GA posters are doody heads with their own subforum. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, John1122 said: Went ahead and posted a thread for this system. It's almost universally modeled that at least Mississippi gets snow here. I know we have a Miss poster and would actually welcome more or even Louisiana posters. We welcome anyone in the SEC footprint*. *SC/Fla/GA posters are doody heads with their own subforum. Thanks John, I was hoping somebody else would make one cause I was afraid I’d jinx myself and others in north miss/ west Tn if I made one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 40 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Thanks John, I was hoping somebody else would make one cause I was afraid I’d jinx myself and others in north miss/ west Tn if I made one. I don't believe in jinxing but appreciate anyone who does! I hope you all score something! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 18z RGEM looked pretty good for western areas of the forum - I agree. Also, it had a bit of an icy look on the northern fringe. Think maybe it was tnweathernut who said he thought the high over the top would have trouble moving. Ice stuff here is often very tough for modeling to pick-up on. Almost always occurs when WAA gets over the top of cold valley locations. Not saying that happens, but seeing the RGEM hint at that made my power lines shiver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The temperature in Knoxville is 33F at 84 on the 18z RGEM with rain moving in over the top. Dropped 2 degrees as precip started on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 As a matter of fact, almost the entire region is barely above freezing on the RGEM. WAA may scour that out...but it looks like that return flow has passed to our east east, because the low goes to our southeast - meaning that the warm nose would be limited on that particular model run. Just toggle to temps and look on TT. That is like the coldest possible rain without ZR or SN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just digging through the 12z CMC it had temps at 35 during the heaviest of rain in the Central Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 And the 18z NAM at range only has temps in the low to mid 30s as precip gets into the eastern valley, including Chattanooga. Take with a huge grain that far out, but those temps are not warm. NAM was flirting with more wintry stuff even outside of western TN and MS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Since there is no college football now, might as well watch the GFS's antics: Here's the old FV3 we all know and love! Just having some fun with this one, please don't take it too seriously, it is the GFS after all. New GFS has a (seemingly) suppressed system around this time frame though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 And if we just play it conservatively and use the CMC's depiction of the jet, I would say it yields a trough passage and front, with the potential for a wave to ride it. biggest problem there looks like the Pac jet keeps the trough from amplifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Simply beautiful runs of the 12z GFS and GEFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 The 12z GEFS is an absolutely stellar look at 500....just wanted to say that again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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