Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM fans are probably going to like the 6z RGEM (especially Sullivan County): still snowing up that way at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: The 6Z NAM - there’s no way that verifies, right? It kind of looks like the Euro and the RGEM, but more suppressed. Based what I saw at it's precip presentation (not had any time to dig deeper this AM yet) it seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM tracks the 850 low right over the TN/NC border, so there is a nice stripe of snow just to the NW of that. NAM keeps that feature further south, so everything stays a little further south. I would think if the 850 low approached the mountains on the TN side, it would want to run up through the valley, since some of the mts are above 850mb. Euro kind of splits the diff. and pinballs the 850 low off the Nantahalas and into the SC midlands. Also, that that inverted trough Math/Met mentioned above, looks like it is on the RGEM too. Seems like it's been forever since I've heard about one of those mentioned for our area enhancing snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM fans are probably going to like the 6z RGEM (especially Sullivan County) still snowing up that way at the end. Somebody go wake @Carvers Gap up and let him know it wasn’t a dream..... the RGEM just cold smoked his entire county. It looks like the setup is there for a narrow smash job just to the northwest of the 850 track. Predicting that track is notoriously hard on modeling, even short range. I’ve seen 50-75 mile adjustments within the 24-36 hour window many times over the years. There are usually surprises with these types of systems, both good and bad. Will be fascinating to watch this one play out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z Euro was warmer with 850 temps and a bit north with the 500 mb ULL. I don't have winter panels yet, but probably not going to be as nice a solution. But yeah, like you said, hopefully we're in nowcast time with where the ULLs (500 and 850 mb levels) track. We are now also in.... wait for it.... wait for it..... the time of that tumultuous lover.... SREF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It takes so long for the precip. type panels to load on weathermodels, but here are the 6z Euro snow totals, compared to 0z 6z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Parts of middle TN might end up in the crosshairs with this system. Definitely one to watch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM fans are probably going to like the 6z RGEM (especially Sullivan County): still snowing up that way at the end. The rich get richer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Still so much uncertainty with this system. It will all come down to how the 500mb/850 low swings around the mountains. I would really like to see a NE motion instead of a SE or E one. That is going to be make or break for a big system or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 After taking a look at modeling this AM (OP & Ensembles) it appears the pattern we have all waited for (board wide) is still very much on track to produce numerous systems taking the low road, each with potentially colder air as we go through the next 2-3 weeks, perhaps ending with a truly cold airmass making its way into the lower 48 toward the end of this 2-3 week period. Lots of large scale features seemingly moving in good directions with several systems to track. About all you can ask for, not to mention we are getting this during peak climo ...... and not chasing it, hoping it materializes in mid March. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Virtual school bogging everything down here at the house(can't get anything done at all...not work and definitely not weather) - virtual just started back for the first time since August. We have worked our schedules so both of us can be home, but still not enough hands on desk with a house full of kiddos. Whew! Keep the fires burning...will check-in when I can. On top of virtual learning for young kids being terrible - no snow days now! LOL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like parts of TN just got a good old NAMing. Can’t post pics right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like parts of TN just got a good old NAMing. Can’t post pics right now. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks that one was win for Chattanooga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks that one was win for Chattanooga! Jeff will tell you that's not a likely solution. lol 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like the 12z RGEM will be pretty similar to 6z. drills Kingsport and Hawkins county. Bays Mountain leeside (in this case NW of the mountain, to the lee of the SE flow) inverted trough upslope! Also of note, looks like this will be overnight for most eastern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Jeff will tell you that's not a likely solution. lolI concur.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS was a miss on the 1st system. Just missing moisture in East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I’ll take the 12z RGEM and see y’all next winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Beautiful morning on Roan mountain 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 CMC still has moisture, but also has warmed some since its 0z run. Strangely seems further south with the 850 low than 0z. Maybe some of the cooling it saw at 0z was dynamically driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Usually the COD site is the last to have model data, but it is whipping TT and Pivotal with the CMC today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Snowfall looks elevation dependent on it: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Now that this system is working into the short range and on multiple models, we probably should start a thread for it. Anyone feeling lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Anyone feeling lucky? I rolled the dice. No fancy names from me this time. Felt wrong for this one for some reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: CMC still has moisture, but also has warmed some since its 0z run. Strangely seems further south with the 850 low than 0z. Maybe some of the cooling it saw at 0z was dynamically driven? More of a problem with using globals with this type of system..it will be very dymaic cooling driven, and it's hard for globals using 6hr windows to "see" exactly what's going on. Take McMinn Co as an example..12z actually looks better on the sounding and qpf increased from 6z, but snow accu didn't...it's hard for the model to interpret what exactly happened during the window of heaviest precip (add in this is very marginal..not much separating from light rain and big wet snowflakes). Hourly meso models may have a better feel for what happens in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Taking a lunch break...In the LR, looks like the ensembles are quickly retrograding the trough into the central areas of the country after 300 on both the GEPS and GEFS - not a huge change in continuity but some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 West and most of middle tn especially north of I-40 seem to be in bad locations so far this winter and even with some of these systems. Yeah, I hear folks with saying NW Trend and I have seen it many times myself but the second wave is even further south on early runs today. The first wave looks like southern middle and east tn in play. Good luck to you all. At some point with that second wave soon it needs to trend nw and so far it's going the other way for any of us to get in on. That second had promise for the rest of us in earlier runs but has trended away from us over the last 2 days. It would be nice for all of Tennessee to get snow, but it's hard to do these days. I am still excited about the pattern just started to see storm trends and so far they haven't been great for west and middle especially north if I-40. But maybe things will change, I know most on here are eastern tn guys so congrats to what you already have gotten with more looking possible. Just hope the rest of us in Tennessee don't swing and miss in a very good pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 For the first time in quite some time, starting to see a clear signal that the MJO is firing and potentially taking the warm tour. As we have seen with modeling at 12z, there should be nearly an immediate reaction after d10 with models depicting that. That is a big change. If true, the MJO will definitely want to retrograde the trough west and undercut it with a ridge across the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmaker said: West and most of middle tn especially north of I-40 seem to be in bad locations so far this winter and even with some of these systems. Yeah, I hear folks with saying NW Trend and I have seen it many times myself but the second wave is even further south. The first wave looks the southern middle and east tn in play. Good luck to you all. At some point with that second wave soon it need to trend nw and so far it's going the other way for any of us to get in on. It would be nice for all of Tennessee to get snow, but it's hard to do these days. I am still excited about the pattern just started to see storm trends and so far they haven't been great for west and middle especially north if I-40. But maybe things will change, I know most on here are eastern tn guys so congrats to what you already have gotten with more looking possible. Agree. I am not yet convinced MBY in NE TN sees much. Models are just all over the place. And yeah, the NW trend with this block will be tougher. For that to happen, really need a storm to get wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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