Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Ukie: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 rain for real? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Ukie: Do u have precip totals for that run of the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Do u have precip totals for that run of the UKIE? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I think the Euro still had a good track on the second storm, but still too far out for precip details. It could still end up as a miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z Euro looked like a reasonable chance for much E TN for storm one - not a huge snow, but 2-3" for valley locations and much higher on the Plateau and Smokies. Tough sometimes to decide if higher elevation amounts skew the lower elevations between the mountains and Plateau. Storm one is much more of a slider with backside snow. Storm two was basically snow turning to rain with WAA and a perfect track - highly doubt that happens with HP sitting over the top. Would likey be ice if that switched over from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 12z EPS and GEFS ensembles are about as beefy as one might see for tis time of year. GEFS has 2+" for pretty much the entire state - more in many places. EPS is less but still a great signal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 12z EPS and GEFS ensembles are about as beefy as one might see for tis time of year. GEFS has 2+" for pretty much the entire state - more in many places. EPS is less but still a great signal.For the whole run or for our first system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Could the 18z GFS be a sign it's starting to step toward the Euro? Looks much better for east of Knox on that run...(1st system). Not sure it has been handling the precip rate well (dynamic cooling is going to play a big factor). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 hours ago, tnweathernut said: I think we'd all like to see the traditional GFS go progressive and further SE for storm 2. At least when we see this we know the usual correction is coming... Now THAT (18z gfs) is right where we want it for several more days.. east across the northern gulf then northeast through far south GA and off the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, 1234snow said: For the whole run or for our first system? Sorry. Entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Now THAT (18z gfs) is right where we want it for several more days.. east across the northern gulf then northeast through far south GA and off the east coast. Well for my area and most of west and middle tn I don't understand why we would want it to go further south. With the 2nd storm the track is good for west and middle on the euro, why would we want it to go south. I know this is east tn primary forum but for most of tennessee that southern track looks to far south to me. Unless you are talking about east tn and north carolina then it may need to go south. Upon further reading I see your taking in the nw trend, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Well for my area and most of west and middle tn I don't understand why we would want it to go further south. With the 2nd storm the track is good for west and middle on the euro, why would we want it to go south. I know this is east tn primary forum but for most of tennessee that southern track looks to far south to me. Unless you are talking about east tn and north carolina then it may need to go south. Upon further reading I see your taking in the nw trend, I think. Exactly. If it shows something good over you from 5-6 days out then you are likely out of luck. Where it is at 18z is likely good for our entire forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'm more interested in seeing things get into RGEM range. It's not been a great year for American modeling but the Canadian suite has been decent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z Euro ULL pass: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro ULL pass: Hmm. Each model run piques my interest in a possible changeover in my neck of the woods. It’ll be interesting to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z Euro look really robust - complete opposite of the weaker GFS solution. Could be a bias of being too wound up...only goes out to 90 on the op but looked good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 While not a lot of direct hits persay, the pattern is ripe looking at the models. I like where we are. Much better to be where we are when the inevitable NW trends set in. Regardless, feels like we are playing with house money after the Christmas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z Euro Control really slams the midstate area, and the mountains. 1-2 inches in other areas. 3-9 in the mid-state. 18z EPS mean is in the 2-3 inch range for the Plateau, higher far east mountains, .75-1.75 inches elsewhere basically. The 18z almost mirrored the Canadian with the ULL that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM was close to a decent event (2" per hr rates along spine of the mountains). NAM took the heavier rates along TN/GA border...if the rates keep trending better/shield expands..a lot more of the forum could be in buisness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The GFS was mostly meh, but we are in that timeframe with it where it's way far east or south with everything. I'd say about 24 hours from now it will possibly trend better for more of us. The Canadian was a lot better for virtually everyone vs 12z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The Euro is just crushing the southern Plateau and maybe even Nooga. Someone is going to get plastered north of the ULL track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Next panel the Knox area and most of East Tennessee gets smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Smoking hot Euro on wave one. Works well further West than other models and buries the East. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Maybe wave 2 on euro will be better in west and middle tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Maybe wave 2 on euro will be better in west and middle tn. It's way south right now. Much more suppressed than 12z. Still, much better suppressed at day 6-7 than close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The UKIE, which didn't handle the Christmas event very well. It was warm for that event if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 As currently modeled on the Euro, I have some downslope concerns for parts of East TN (particularly for my area) but that could change over the next couple days depending on the strength and position of the low at 850mb. It's not too bad, just something to keep an eye on. I do like that a bit of an inverted trough is showing up along the mountains leading up to the heaviest precipitation on the Euro. That can help in multiple ways. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The 6Z NAM - there’s no way that verifies, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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