John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This would be one of the best winter periods in years on the forum were it to verify. Unless you were in that small screw zone too far east for one wave and too far west for the other. To have this on the Euro a few years ago I'd have been super confident. Super wary instead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmaker said: True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch. Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north! With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Overnight Ukie: Looks like, at least for now, the difference is energy over the midwest that turns the midlevel flow out of the south and mess up thermals. Ukie doesn't have it in the same place some of the other globals do: Ukie: CMC (as the most prominent example): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). High descent circled in black and low development circled in red: and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 One thing I am not much of a fan of, right now, is this mess: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 hours ago, Tobiewx said: I’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run. My concern is, how much further north will she come Me and you both buddy. The good thing is we are under 5 days for this system. Definitely a strong signal on multiple models. Thanks for sharing @John1122 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Me and you both buddy. The good thing is we are under 5 days for this system. Definitely a strong signal on multiple models. Thanks for sharing @John1122 When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow.............. once you see it you can't unsee it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow.............. once you see it you can't unsee it. 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow.............. once you see it you can't unsee it. As long as that finger stays over my county I’m happy. Lol. That is pretty funny now that u mention it too. Haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 It's a maniculum!!! They were often used by manuscript and early printed books readers as finding aides (similar to how we might use a highlighter): We've been warned, but not sure of what! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Nice track for the system next Monday on the para. Shows a nice stripe of snow from east Texas and ENE into SE Tennessee. Doesn't get a lot of moisture back into Tennessee northwest of there, but the threat is there and on most modeling not named the regular GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more. Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson, and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more. Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson, and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee. The Canadian has been pretty consistent with that storm signal the past few runs. I’ll be interested to see what the 12z Euro does with that energy today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night into early Tuesday. NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night into early Tuesday. NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook. They been burnt to many times, so they will approach this with caution, can’t blame them, at one time the mid south had no problem with these but as of late these things can change at last minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The euro took the second wave further to the south this time. I am kind of glad it took the jog south instead of going nw even more. These things often tend to take a nw turn leading up to the event. I think we still have a shot with this second wave in west and middle tn, still plenty of time for a shift or a trend in any direction. But still being out 4-5 days I would still rather have it to the south of me versus north overall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Total 18z GFS snowfall for the sub forum are is probably worth a post if someone has it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z GFS has five snow events for the sub-forum. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Total 18z GFS snowfall for the sub forum are is probably worth a post if someone has it. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I'm also posting the GEFS mean. It has been awhile since I have seen Knoxville in the purple/pink for the mean. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 This event now in the 18z Euro's timeframe: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: This event now in the 18z Euro's timeframe: Man I really like that look!! Euro has been consistent with this look the past 3 runs if I’m not mistaken. 84 hr nam with nearly the identical storm track as depicted here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just a little more nw move would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Currently in the everyone but the Canadian loses the next system timeframe. It's crazy how much better the GGEM has been than the GFS/Euro/UKIE this winter for snow systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 There's still a decent shot some of us see some wintry weather with wave 2, and to me this is all bonus stuff. The truly wintry pattern resulting from the SSW should start being felt mid-month and beyond. MRX has this delightful sentence to end their AFD this morning. Quote For the very end of the period, confidence continues to increase for deep troughing in the eastern U.S., which will bring more chances for below normal temperatures and the possibility of winter weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Come on NAM, bring it home: 6z Euro looks good for any central and NE MS folks: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN? Because it's the "Valley Warm Nose" effect. Probably....don't know for sure. Haven't looked at models. Feeling slightly jaded after getting nothing in this last round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN? 500mb level looks like a mess. the vort is shearing out and the time of day is the worst possible arrival (afternoon) for what light precip makes it up this way. All modeling shows 500 going to crap, so I'd set expectations low and if you see a light snow event consider yourself lucky! Just my two cents. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yeah agree with tnweathernut. Potential for a surprise, but don't get too hopeful. This one has the potential to look amazing on radar and then fall apart. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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