tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 By 120, most of northern Louisiana is snowing and the light snows are streaking toward and just outside of Memphis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 System scooting east in the northern gulf and by 126 snow is falling in most of Arkansas. Euro shows light rains in most of Mississippi and Alabama. By 132 the low is in southern Alabama with snow/mix in northwest MS and snow/mix in or near Memphis. Still snowing in much of Arkansas at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Keep the play by play going weathernut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Lol, snow porn junkies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 There is an interaction with the main vort and a secondary vort at 500, around hour 108-120, that causes the trough to go negative and ends up raining on most of Tennessee 138-150 (though parts of TN may start as snow or mix). There is yet another vort that enters the picture, also in the northern stream between 138 and 144, further complicating an already complicated picture. Long story short, the system looks to be there............. but how the northern stream interacts/disrupts is likely going to lead to much wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst meteorologists and hobbyists alike. This could break bad or good and forecasts beyond 3-4 days should be taken with a boulder of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: Lol, snow porn junkies. You're not wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 This edition of PBP was interrupted by an uninvited guest at just the wrong time. Remove that weird vort dance at 500mb between 108-126 and the surface would have likely been snowing/mixing in much of Tennessee too. Side note. My PBP's might go back into hibernation after that attempt. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, tnweathernut said: Side note. My PBP's might go back into hibernation after that attempt. lol NOOOOOOOO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 From what 500 looked at around day 3 I would have thought this was going to play out MUCH better than it did. I am guessing there will be numerous 12z euro individual ensembles that get the job done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I tried anticipating the happy hour GFS a couple of days ago, and I failed miserably. But hey, I'll always have the SREFs. On a topical note, here is a dramatic rendering of tnweathernut's PBP. (I can't take credit for it): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Actually feeling better about wave 2 now. No doubt could go a few ways but we at least have a shot and something to watch. Heck even wave 1 will be fun watching, I am sure higher elevations will get something from it if nobody else does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Really hard for me to believe this is a rain system for Tennesseans early next week..... . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Really hard for me to believe this is a rain system for Tennesseans early next week..... . It's gonna be SNOW! We got a shot, like the trends of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Para GFS looks better for that system at Happy Hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: Really hard for me to believe this is a rain system for Tennesseans early next week..... . Yeah. When we’re banana’d by a couple 1030 highs, I see your point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Next 5 days on the gfsv16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The GFS is still suppressing wave two but it's much further north than earlier runs. Now it has a wave 3 similar to Christmas with cold catching moisture and snow falling for the next 24 hours or so behind an arctic front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 So much more fun than last year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Big bounce back on the 0z Canadian for wave 2. 24 hr totals d6ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I am feeling good about wave 2, seems to be trending in a good direction at the moment. Still a ways to go, still time to get even better or worse but I am liking the direction at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Long time lurker here, decided to finally sign up, I enjoy all the commentary you guys bring. I’m from North west Mississippi, we have been in a snow drought as of late, been a while since a good winter storm has hit my area, really hoping that changes soon, maybe as soon as next weeK. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Tobiewx said: Long time lurker here, decided to finally sign up, I enjoy all the commentary you guys bring. I’m from North west Mississippi, we have been in a snow drought as of late, been a while since a good winter storm has hit my area, really hoping that changes soon, maybe as soon as next weeK. Glad you're here. I hope you guys get nailed like the models are showing. The Canadian builds a glacier in Mississippi. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wave 2 looking good early for Arkansas, Mississippi and SWTN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Crushing N Miss and West Tennessee at 114. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Big run of the Euro on the 2nd wave for Western areas. Was much better in general than 12z. Still has the same issues as 12z more east but overall a huge winter storm for parts of the forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run. My concern is, how much further north will she come 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 108-114 snow accumulation. 114-120 120-126 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Lock that in! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tobiewx said: I’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run. My concern is, how much further north will she come Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. Only 5 more days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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