hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The NAM still wants to lift the sleet up through Cedar Rapids Tuesday evening... a bit more aggressive than the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Long range nam so take it with a grain of salt but it's way south with the 500mb low. Has sfc low at 84hrs just off shore from Houston. Crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Long range nam so take it with a grain of salt but it's way south with the 500mb low. Has sfc low at 84hrs just off shore from Houston. Crazy If we still had the DGEX it might have had the low in Cancun 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 For those keeping score of the 00z cycle, the RGEM came in way south with wave 1. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, RCNYILWX said: For those keeping score of the 00z cycle, the RGEM came in way south with wave 1. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Indeed. Regarding wave 1, the Canadian has been insistent on a somewhat respectable corridor of ice running through here or nearby. It's interesting because southerly/southeasterly flow is not really favorable to be locking in freezing rain for a long time, especially without a prime antecedent airmass. I guess something this has going for it despite the S/SE flow is that warm layer aloft is not extremely warm this far north and the surface low is still relatively weak and organizing as it's passing through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Indeed. Regarding wave 1, the Canadian has been insistent on a somewhat respectable corridor of ice running through here or nearby. It's interesting because southerly/southeasterly flow is not really favorable to be locking in freezing rain for a long time, especially without a prime antecedent airmass. I guess something this has going for it despite the S/SE flow is that warm layer aloft is not extremely warm this far north and the surface low is still relatively weak and organizing as it's passing through.Also coming off the very dry surface high, the dew points start quite low and southeast surface wind through 06z or 09z is pulling from dew points still in the upper teens to lower 20s over central Indiana. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Kaner88 said: If we still had the DGEX it might have had the low in Cancun Good ol' DGEX. I miss that whack model. I can tell that this 2nd wave is going to be held back from fully taking off because of the confluence downstream. 0z gfs definitely se more with sfc low. It did close off a 500mb contour and even has some residual energy after Fri. I wish gem had more model support but it seems to be a stand alone on 1st wave being that south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Good ol' DGEX. I miss that whack model. I can tell that this 2nd wave is going to be held back from fully taking off because of the confluence downstream. 0z gfs definitely se more with sfc low. It did close off a 500mb contour and even has some residual energy after Fri. I wish gem had more model support but it seems to be a stand alone on 1st wave being that south.The GFS has been bumping south each run, and the UKMET was in similar range of the GEM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The 00Z GFS is just a big fat icey, sleety, rainy kiss my ass kitchen sink mess. Just what I'm used to the past few years 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 For wave 1, thinking that I could manage about 1" before changing to mix and then rain to wash away whatever snow falls. Not supremely confident in that amount yet though. For the New Years part, I am very confident in it not being 100% plain rain. Even the least wintry scenario should at least start as a period of ice, but a snowier possibility is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GEM wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Long range nam so take it with a grain of salt but it's way south with the 500mb low. Has sfc low at 84hrs just off shore from Houston. Crazy 1 hour ago, Kaner88 said: If we still had the DGEX it might have had the low in Cancun Would definitely love to see the next few frames on the DGEX right now, for personal reasons. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The Canadian has shifted well southeast with the Friday system and falls apart when it crosses the Ohio river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Canadian has shifted well southeast with the Friday system and falls apart when it crosses the Ohio river. We needed the threat of the storm fading to add some drama. The ICON is on other end of the spectrum, pretty far north (I look at it now that we're within 5 days ) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 UK has come in a bit south with wave 1. It was already one of the south models. If you live in southern Iowa, the Canadian and UK say you'll get dumped on while the other models say you'll get mix/rain or even a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ukie is fairly far west with part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Ukie is fairly far west with part 2. Yeah, as a couple other models fade back southeast, the UK keeps inching nw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 At least we’ll get some snow. Maybe even 2 advisories between the 2 waves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Following winter storms in this era has become an unmitigated train wreck! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yeah, as a couple other models fade back southeast, the UK keeps inching nw. All about how quickly the southern wave gets sheared out. Even on a stronger/NW solution like the UKMET, the wave opens up but is able to lift much farther north with incoming northern stream energy much slower. GEM is much stronger and faster and therefore farther southeast earlier with the northern stream energy, which shreds wave 2 in the confluence. So many pieces coming into play for wave 2 that won't be sampled fully until mid week and it's already a faster flow pattern that gives the models fits, so expect the operational runs to have large variance and large spread in the ensembles until more than satellite data from the key features can get inputted into the model initialization. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro ticked a hair south again with wave 1. It's pretty much in the middle of the guidance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro continues to be quite a bit stronger and nw with wave 2. It doesn't really reach the confluence area until the lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The GEMs especially but also the UKMET have been consistently farther south with wave 1, and we've seen a several run south bump from the other guidance since. Question is do we see the southward adjustments continue once the first wave is fully sampled? In making a hypothetical forecast blend at this point, I think I'd give a nod to the consistency of the GEMs and UKMET and weight them more than the Euro, GFS, NAM. Will be interesting to see trends with the 12z guidance when the wave is fully sampled. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 What is wrong with these models? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: What is wrong with these models? They hate us... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 What is wrong with these models? I'll take a stab at this. It would be cool to get a take from an actual modeler on the frustration we all share in the apparent degradation of short-medium range forecasts, especially in the winter. My perception since I've worked at NWS Chicago in 2010 is that the operational model forecasts haven't improved much if at all for our region. Meanwhile, I know that the modelling is so much more advanced now than it was then. I think there are a few feasible culprits to lack of good model consensus at fairly short lead times and changes in the forecast in short lead times. 1) Fast flow patterns have seemed to the rule in recent winters. Have seen it speculated on other forums/subforums that the fast flow may be linked to CC. Whatever the case may be, it makes logical sense that faster flow is tougher for even our advanced NWP of today to accurately handle key features that can often start as lower amplitude earlier in the forecast process. As we know, any errors at initialization get amplified the later into the forecast. 2) Lack of more recon sounding data over the all important Pacific basin. I don't know the full story behind data inputs that are no longer there, but it seems clear that satellite (despite the recent advances satellite data) and sparse aircraft soundings out over the open Pacific are insufficient to bridge the gap until RAOB sampling. 3) Doubled edged sword to ever higher resolution: Can very small scale features picked up by higher resolution modelling systems cause errors to increase quicker than more smoothed out data of the past? Further discussion on this can probably be sent to banter, but I'm curious if anyone else has any other ideas on this. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 00z Euro and GFS runs now want to give a little snow for parts of Ohio and Indiana with the latter also giving Freezing Rain accumulation, both right before another brief blowtorch again on New Year's Day. 00z Euro: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 And...A Winter Storm Watch for southern Wisconsin for 5-7 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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