Gino27 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Good luck guys. I think this is yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A miss west or east is on the table, but I think I'm a little more concerned about a deeper/western track (yes it goes against the trends that we have often seen in recent years). Ridging is pretty robust in the east and this type of upper level look with such a robust southern wave scares me. Would be nice if the system behind it could act as a bit of a kicker to limit how far west our system comes. Of course this assumes that the upper level pattern actually ends up looking like this. I'm honestly surprised how east the secondary low goes with how the upper levels look. You would think this could trend west given how wrapped up it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A miss west or east is on the table, but I think I'm a little more concerned about a deeper/western track (yes it goes against the trends that we have often seen in recent years). Ridging is pretty robust in the east and this type of upper level look with such a robust southern wave scares me. Would be nice if the system behind it could act as a bit of a kicker to limit how far west our system comes. Of course this assumes that the upper level pattern actually ends up looking like this. Same, rainer is the risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Way too much commentary for an 84 hour NAM, but the end of the run has a weak sauce 1009 mb low in Iowa. Transition zone is present with lingering cold air at the surface thanks to the surface high in place earlier on. In theory, a weaker surface low would mean less of a pressure gradient, thus weaker sfc winds, thus slower warming at the surface compared to having a stronger low, but the counter to that is that it's still southerly/southeasterly flow out ahead of the surface low and many areas don't have any snowcover to try to slow down the temperature rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Seeing a strong secondary low signal emerging out of the GOMEX on both the 12z GEFS and EPS. The GEFS has the trough axis and subsequent ejection further east relative to the EPS. 12z GEFS 12z EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The NAM was the same model that gave us Chicagoans hope for Christmas. I'm honestly happy that it ISN'T showing snow here yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Can see the wide spread in GFS ensemble low tracks for the secondary low propagating out of the Gulf of Mexico. Spread is high in both track location and MSLP intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 GHD I style bowling ball inbound 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Watch this secondary low follow the same path the Christmas Eve/Christmas day storm followed. That ridging to the east will be critical in determining if this is more of a GL cutter or an App runner. Definitely will be interesting to see what evolves as this trough is impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: I see your Clint Black and raise you Milli Vanilli. In all seriousness, the wide array of changes is going to make each model cycle exciting to watch come in over coming days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Gfs still baby stepping 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I still have no idea how this thing is going to play out..Can we just have a "normal" looking storm for once this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I don't wanna get bitten in the ass for saying this, but I think if we can find a happy middle ground between GFS and CMC, we'll have our first real storm of the year here in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I don't wanna get bitten in the ass for saying this, but I think if we can find a happy middle ground between GFS and CMC, we'll have our first real storm of the year here in N IL. Problem is that im not sure if 1 solution will happen without the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 My own modelling is showing low pressure moving E to NE with it over the C Lakes by New Years Eve, and New Years Day, (in my holiday forecast thread) I show high pressure over the upper Midwest with low pressure over the E Lakes, which I posted 2 months ago. I had thought it could be a clipper sinking in over the plains, back then, moving east, but looks like a CO low set up. A secondary low moving up from the south over the east lakes wasn't on my radar for the 1st, but sneaky things do happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 GFS slowly moving track NW. 18z moves the sweet spot from eastern Ohio to central Indiana to the northwestern half of the Buckeye state. If I were betting.....ORD just might win this one....IF there is enough cold air. REGIONS Prev. RunNext Run FORECAST GIFTREND GIF 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Wow BrianD nailed it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Problem is that im not sure if 1 solution will happen without the other. I'm talking strictly about the secondary lows. Honestly, even I with my boundless optimism realize that chances are we won't manage much from low #1 -if anything- but as long as low #2 steals the show, that's okay with me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Gfs still baby stepping Hopefully it stops stepping before it falls down the stairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I think the models need to let the weak 29th/30th disturbance play out till it figured out this system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I want to get excited but we here in Indy have been screwed over so much. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'm talking strictly about the secondary lows. Honestly, even I with my boundless optimism realize that chances are we won't manage much from low #1 -if anything- but as long as low #2 steals the show, that's okay with me Looks like weather.com is on board with this "New Storm System to Arrive Sunday Starting in Southwest - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com" https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/new-storm-system-arrives-late-sunday-in-the-southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Looks like weather.com is on board with this "New Storm System to Arrive Sunday Starting in Southwest - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com" https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/new-storm-system-arrives-late-sunday-in-the-southwest Yeah. I don't want to jump the gun, but I guess what it comes down to now is weather we might get some snow, or the whopping that the GFS shows to our east (and the GEM to our west). The GEFS has some strong members but lots of meh ones too. Of course, I'll take anything but let's be real here... We're in it to win it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I call first dibs on 18z gfs lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Follow the multi-season trend and bet on whatever is less impressive, weaker, and more sheared. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Follow the multi-season trend and bet on whatever is less impressive, weaker, and more sheared. Have a tendency to think UKMET may lead the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: I call first dibs on 18z gfs lock Sounds like a repeat of January 1999 since a bulk of the snowfall on today's 18z GFS run actually takes place around New Year's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 One of the main differences between the GFS & ECMWF relates to the confluence zone across Quebec. The ECMWF has a much stronger eastern ridge while the GFS has a weaker ridge and a confluence zone further south which keeps the GFS low track further southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I am guessing that at least 90% of the time when a surface low comes out of the GOM into Louisiana in winter, you don't have to worry about it raining in Chicago because the track is gonna tend to have a significant enough easterly component to keep it far enough south. But then there's the other percentage of time, when the track is basically due north into the Quad Cities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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