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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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Just now, Hoosier said:

Don't get too invested yet.  5-6 days is a lifetime to see changes in track.

That's the down side. The lead wave still has snow potential, but this second potentially main wave is now later on.

Good news is that most of  the players should be on land by Monday night.

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32 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm just glad that for once we have more than a wild goose chase to track. Cherish it while you can guys

Whether we call it the main or secondary system, I can make good arguments for it missing west or east of us.  Maybe that's a good sign as it reflects that we are solidly in the envelope.

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Whether we call it the main or secondary system, I can make good arguments for it missing west or east of us.  Maybe that's a good sign as it reflects that we are solidly in the envelope.
To your point, here are the low locations on Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday for the 12z EPS, followed by individual member total snowfall. Good support for a weaker primary and a stronger secondary, so I agree that we're in the envelope. Unfortunately it's another pretty much thread the needle setup. bc0e0346326db7a20cab4326efa7bd64.jpg4ad6189f04cd4393fb2ac3dab9288cc1.jpg1536c8f2b412098773f3ea3348bc80bb.jpgbb5727f0484ddcba190074a7208d00d9.jpg24050530bb7daaad1f485368688e74a3.jpg335bbfed41d8da0ba30b561635f959d9.jpg

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29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

To your point, here are the low locations on Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday for the 12z EPS, followed by individual member total snowfall. Good support for a weaker primary and a stronger secondary, so I agree that we're in the envelope. Unfortunately it's another pretty much thread the needle setup. bc0e0346326db7a20cab4326efa7bd64.jpg4ad6189f04cd4393fb2ac3dab9288cc1.jpg1536c8f2b412098773f3ea3348bc80bb.jpgbb5727f0484ddcba190074a7208d00d9.jpg24050530bb7daaad1f485368688e74a3.jpg335bbfed41d8da0ba30b561635f959d9.jpg

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A miss west or east is on the table, but I think I'm a little more concerned about a deeper/western track (yes it goes against the trends that we have often seen in recent years).  Ridging is pretty robust in the east and this type of upper level look with such a robust southern wave scares me.  Would be nice if the system behind it could act as a bit of a kicker to limit how far west our system comes.

Of course this assumes that the upper level pattern actually ends up looking like this.

500hv.conus.thumb.png.a95c0d1ca1b825f9d596d4e0e55f5de0.png

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