Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Will be curious to see if the offices hit the ice threat harder in the overnight discussions. Most guidance (except the NAM and GFS) is suggestive of a band of around 0.25-0.50" ice accretion in MO/IL and into IN/MI. Devil is in the details of course. Do precip rates get too high and hurt accretion more than what the FRAM output suggests? I'm curious of this myself. I think most areas will go WWA and upgrade to ice storm warning if need be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm curious of this myself. I think most areas will go WWA and upgrade to ice storm warning if need be IWX talked WWA in their pm AFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z NAM bullish on snow which I thought was odd as it's been a warmer model, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 0z NAM bullish on snow which I thought was odd as it's been a warmer model, right? Yeah I’ve been noticing a moderate shift SE in many of the high resolution models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 0z NAM bullish on snow which I thought was odd as it's been a warmer model, right? Yea nam is the most north guidance and an outlier at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea nam is the most north guidance and an outlier at this point May be more N in Iowa, but wrt snow swath it's further south in the Mitt. Could be having thermal issues in a different direction with this wave. Although, 12z Ukie had snow south like this too so NAM's not alone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Nam is very aggressive with the warm push north and also tracks the low north of I70. Most guidance has shifted along or just south of I70 with sfc low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nam is very aggressive with the warm push north and also tracks the low north of I70. Most guidance has shifted along or just south of I70 with sfc low track I see that. Icy Friday, but then thump snows Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I am definitely getting more bullish on a nice burst of snow around here at the end late Fri/early Sat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 06z hrrr looking quite nice. Similar to 0z run. Has a broad swath of ice storm warning criteria totals. Temps a bit marginal for significant icing but feel confident in a good corridor of 0.1-0.2in with pockets exceeding a quarter inch. Not completely sold on half inch totals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 So as an example of how minor details can have an impact, take a look around Lafayette, IN at 16z Friday. The HRRR has a temp around 29 as heavier precip swings through. If that is right, that makes a difference. But for all we know, it could end up being 31 or 32 when the heavier precip comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So as an example of how minor details can have an impact, take a look around Lafayette, IN at 16z Friday. The HRRR has a temp around 29 as heavier precip swings through. If that is right, that makes a difference. But for all we know, it could end up being 31 or 32 when the heavier precip comes through. Icing events are so finicky and a nightmare to forecast. Such a delicate balance of temperatures. A little colder could mean more sleet. A little warmer rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 06Z HRRR sounding in my area around 10am Fri. Some deep saturation and pretty strong forcing. That's a deep ass warm tongue if I've ever seen one. Similar soundings a couple hours either side. Will be interesting if it pans out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 IWX is being more conservative with amounts while GRR is being more bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Watches and warnings starting to go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 NWS has really lowered the forecast highs for tomorrow. The other day it was 54, then 50 yesterday, now 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nam is very aggressive with the warm push north and also tracks the low north of I70. Most guidance has shifted along or just south of I70 with sfc low track So wait, the NAM is an outlier? Shocker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I'm all for a light freezing rain/ snow event on New Years Day. Beats the 35 and sunny I've become accustomed too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 hard pass on zr during the covid 19 era, stuck at home with nothing to do, brutal. white rain to a 2-3" duster is much better 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: hard pass on zr during the covid 19 era, stuck at home with nothing to do, brutal. white rain to a 2-3" duster is much better on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 take it to the bank 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 RAP and HRRR probably have the most sig overall solutions.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: RAP and HRRR probably have the most sig overall solutions. . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Talking Heads.Nice old school. Will go with 1.5" call imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 2 ice map by WPC: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 15Z RAP Ice Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, ILSNOW said: 15Z RAP Ice Snow Major ice storm for SW Missouri if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: RAP and HRRR probably have the most sig overall solutions. . Think they're trustworthy with low level thermals? They keep temps at or below freezing the whole event whereas GFS, Nam are bringing us above freezing by 18z. Current HRRR run is several degrees too cold on current temps and doesn't even bring me to 27 which I'm already at. RAP also looks to be running too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Think they're trustworthy with low level thermals? They keep temps at or below freezing the whole event whereas GFS, Nam are bringing us above freezing by 18z. Current HRRR run is several degrees too cold on current temps and doesn't even bring me to 27 which I'm already at. RAP also looks to be running too cold. More important to see where you're at overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Interesting how the NAM and GFS are still less bullish on ice overall. The differences are laughable in some places. But the preponderance of evidence points toward a band of 0.25-0.50" of ice (possibly a fairly wide one), and I'd certainly lean toward the idea of a band of 0.25-0.50" We'll see what the Euro shows shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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