Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Prelim guess on the icing is for a band of 0.25"+ accretion embedded in a larger area of 0.1-0.25" accretion. I'm not sure how wide the 0.25"+ will be though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 It seems like this is okay to share based on Pivotal Weather's terms. Here is the latest RGEM with FRAM instead of QPF that was mentioned above. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Anyone in Eastern Indiana seeing a burst of heavy snow like the S Ill folks did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Ripping sleet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, bl5585 said: It seems like this is okay to share based on Pivotal Weather's terms. Here is the latest RGEM with FRAM instead of QPF that was mentioned above. That spells borderline major ice storm for a lot of places if that verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 52 minutes ago, Baum said: diaper rashes are the worst. Yeah this is a rainstorm, no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Major SE shift in the 0z HRRR. Keeps the ZR out of Iowa entirely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 It's a winter wonderland in the Indy area. Wasn't expecting it to snow tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z HRRR freezing rain accumulation map at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, Natester said: 0z HRRR freezing rain accumulation map at hour 48. Might need to start thinking about winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snownado said: It's a winter wonderland in the Indy area. Wasn't expecting it to snow tonight. good for you. enjoy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Yeah this is a rainstorm, no worries that's called challenging karma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 37 minutes ago, Natester said: That spells borderline major ice storm for a lot of places if that verifies. I feel like we've seen storms in the past that look that ugly and never seem to verify. Warm air seems to win out and you end up with slop rain that freezes after the cold air moves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Well nam certainly didn't get the se memo. It surges warm air north very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 48 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z HRRR freezing rain accumulation map at hour 48. Same model and time but with FRAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Pain. Looks like a clown solution around your area in more ways than one (what it does with the precip shield, how it handles sfc temps, etc). Wouldn't put much stock in that depiction for northern IN area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Digging these FRAM maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Digging these FRAM maps. 2 bad you gotta pay to play lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoachLB said: 2 bad you gotta pay to play lol. Yeah, you'd have to shell out 7 dollars a month to get those kind of maps. The best products on pivotal weather aren't free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Ripped a Gomer surprise 1.5" earlier. Slick as a Witches T$%t out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 03z RAP... oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 03z RAP... oh boy Man that's nice. Looks like I could possibly see more snow or sleet being north of heaviest freezing rain on RAP. Funny because I was worried about going to rain too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 03z RAP... oh boyMight be the best overall combined snow and ice model run, but probably a bit overdone in both aspects.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Sort of teetering on the northwest edge of this one it looks like if trends continue. A complete whiff southeast is def possible. I'm good with it though if that happens, last night was enough to get me by for a little while lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Tricky forecast around here for various reasons. It looks feasible to start off as snow/sleet, but that should be brief and my expectation is an inch or less of snow/sleet before a transition to freezing rain. Exactly how long it takes to transition to freezing rain will play a role in ice amounts. The other big question is what happens with surface temps as precip lightens and the flow starts to bend more northeast, and thus off of Lake Michigan. Indications are that temps will nudge above freezing, if only by a little. However, if that manages to not happen due to the inland penetration of the marine influence being overdone, the little bit of snow/sleet at onset being enough to feedback, or whatever other reason, temp profiles aloft would support freezing rain continuing in a lighter/more showery regime until enough cooling of the column occurs Friday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z euro bumped se again. Anyone have ice maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z euro bumped se again. Anyone have ice maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Thanks man! I need to get a premium model subscription but college has me broke. Ha. That's very impressive. Similar to gem with significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Will be curious to see if the offices hit the ice threat harder in the overnight discussions. Most guidance (except the NAM and GFS) is suggestive of a band of around 0.25-0.50" ice accretion in MO/IL and into IN/MI. Devil is in the details of course. Do precip rates get too high and hurt accretion more than what the FRAM output suggests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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