IWXwx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The all-day rain just changed to huge flakes here. Probably 1.5" an hour. That's about all the longer it will last, but it's worth just sitting in front of the picture window for awhile to enjoy. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Yep, it's official. All the models have trended southeast, including the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I'm digging these trends. Pun intended. Definitely a notable southeast trend today. Though system is weaker and less qpf but I will take it. Better than stronger and more cold rain. No thank you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 ^username checks out. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: ^username checks out. FACTS!!! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: No shit. Its weaker. Gets any weaker, you won't have any qpf at all in the cold sector. Maybe its time to move to the last piece of energy along the front? Well it's always been clear this system reaches its max intensity early on. I'm not worried about it trending much weaker but anything is possible. Gem solution would be nice but doesn't seem to have the support for a widespread significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 18Z GFS has a track just north of Cape Girardeau-Indy-Toledo track now also. Talk about your shoot from the hip guess. Shame it's become a shredded POS. Without cold air tough to get the desired results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Liking the Detroit Duster trends. Stronger storm and it was a lights out slop fest in far SE, WI - Pass. Sure there is still a path to pick up an Advisory event but, is it worth the potential hassles? Its still always fun to be tracking an event on here and lets see what Oz brings tonight after giving the models a few cycles after RD1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well it's always been clear this system reaches its max intensity early on. I'm not worried about it trending much weaker but anything is possible. Gem solution would be nice but doesn't seem to have the support for a widespread significant ice storm. Not saying the GEM will verify on the ice, but I think it ends up being more icy than what other guidance is suggesting. The rate of warming at the surface is gonna be really slow on the northern end, especially now with the weaker solutions looking favored. Plus we are in the dead of winter (at least on the calendar... not that it has felt winterlike a lot of the time lol) and around the lowest sun angle. Just one example... the raw GFS output has temps rising about 4 degrees here between 18z and 21z Friday. With E/NE winds and ongoing precip, that is nonsense imo. I bet the actual rise will be more like a 1 or 2 degree rise at most, and I'm confident enough that I'll come back and bump the post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 No shit. Its weaker. Gets any weaker, you won't have any qpf at all in the cold sector. Maybe its time to move to the last piece of energy along the front?tth.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not saying the GEM will verify on the ice, but I think it ends up being more icy than what other guidance is suggesting. The rate of warming at the surface is gonna be really slow on the northern end, especially now with the weaker solutions looking favored. Plus we are in the dead of winter (at least on the calendar... not that it has felt winterlike a lot of the time lol) and around the lowest sun angle. Just one example... the raw GFS output has temps rising about 4 degrees here between 18z and 21z Friday. With E/NE winds and ongoing precip, that is nonsense imo. I bet the actual rise will be more like a 1 or 2 degree rise at most, and I'm confident enough that I'll come back and bump the post. I definitely agree with this. I see more ice than snow. Snow never really looked impressive with this system. But not confident on a significant ice storm by any means. But a widespread .1-.2in I think is likely with pockets of a quarter inch or more a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Someone needs a dog or a stuffed animal or something happy 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21z RAP is pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Liking the Detroit Duster trends. Stronger storm and it was a lights out slop fest in far SE, WI - Pass. Sure there is still a path to pick up an Advisory event but, is it worth the potential hassles? Its still always fun to be tracking an event on here and lets see what Oz brings tonight after giving the models a few cycles after RD1. It's no hassle for me to sit on my couch by the fire and watch it snow 3 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Someone needs a dog or a stuffed animal or something happyhe’s falling apart now that everyone else finally figured out his game.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 That 21z rap is sick. Don't tell sir angry. LoW iS weAKeR, tHeRe woN't bE aNY qPf iN cOLd sEcToR. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Not anticipating anything weird to happen as we close in, but going to keep in the back of my mind that our upper low of interest is solidly down in Mexico. Sometimes you don't get all the data from there that you'd want into the models, which can result in rather dramatic changes at the last minute as it gets back into the US observation network. Again, not predicting that we'll see big shifts, but I am more alert to the possibility in this type of situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Baum said: It's no hassle for me to sit on my couch by the fire and watch it snow 3 inches. No shit. Get it with a side of sleet and ice on top to really lock it in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 18Z RGEM would be a super nasty ice storm for a lot of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21z RAP has a thin strip of 1-4" of sleet across MI. The warm nose is pretty shallow and small for the first few hours, so I could see how this ends up being more sleet than ZR for some areas. Honestly would prefer sleet over an ice storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Total precip yesterday at MLI/DVN was 1.34"/1.42". Very solid event. With regards to Friday one thing to keep in mind is if snow falls on top of areas with a glazed over snowpack it will blow around very easily. Euro shows winds gusting to about 25 mph, in the deformation zone, and that would be enough to cause some decent blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I hate ice! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Regarding the freezing rain, something I am noticing on the guidance is that a portion of the higher precip rates happen while temps are around 28-30 degrees. Obviously that would make a difference in how much accretes as you can get away with some heavier rates at those temps. That is a verbatim read of the models though, so if it ends up more like 31-32 during that time, then more will run off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Would recommend looking at the 00z HREF page tonight for freezing rain tomorrow night into Friday. They recently added 3 hr and 24 hr FRAM mean ice accumulation to the winter parameters. FRAM (freezing rain accumulation model) is what we use in the NWS for ice accums and it's much more sophisticated than the QPF to ice accums that's available on COD, Pivotal Wx, WeatherBell, etc. Here's a link to a pdf about the FRAM if you're interested in learning more:https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9&ved=2ahUKEwjUmoSJ8_btAhV6B50JHVLaDZYQFjAAegQIBBAC&usg=AOvVaw2fMu-m4aPPk_bnXxwA6ivl&cshid=1609372449468Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Regarding the freezing rain, something I am noticing on the guidance is that a portion of the higher precip rates happen while temps are around 28-30 degrees. Obviously that would make a difference in how much accretes as you can get away with some heavier rates at those temps. That is a verbatim read of the models though, so if it ends up more like 31-32 during that time, then more will run off. Wait, does heavy freezing rain run off at 28F? I thought it was 31-32F that it runs off in heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Natester said: Wait, does heavy freezing rain run off at 28F? I thought it was 31-32F that it runs off in heavy rates. That's what I'm saying. 31-32 is a bigger runoff concern in heavy rates. Runoff isn't really a concern at 28 unless maybe if it's a torrential downpour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 With that much latent heat release, there's gonna need to be a serious feed of dry air. Without the traditional antecedent airmass for an ice storm, this has the making of a quick change and a lot of hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, UMB WX said: No shit. Get it with a side of sleet and ice on top to really lock it in. diaper rashes are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's what I'm saying. 31-32 is a bigger runoff concern in heavy rates. Runoff isn't really a concern at 28 unless maybe if it's a torrential downpour. How much does the temp of the droplet matter in situations like this? It seems like the surface cold is forecasted to be shallow with a deep warm layer above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, bl5585 said: How much does the temp of the droplet matter in situations like this? It seems like the surface cold is forecasted to be shallow with a deep warm layer above. Definitely a factor to consider. A setup with a 10C warm layer aloft and 31F at the surface will not accrete as well as a setup with a 4C degree warm layer aloft and 31 at the surface... all else being equal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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