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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Is it just me or did this move much faster than models had it? Looking like much less ice now with the substantial dry slot that advected in ahead of that last trailing band

Yes it has.  The show here will be totally over in a couple hours from now when all the models had the show end after midnight.

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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The convective nature of the snow in Iowa was very impressive. Tons of lightning strikes showing up near and north of the transition line. You can see gravity waves on reflectivity. Pretty awesome. 

Screenshot_20201229-180401_RadarScope.jpg

Saw that on Scope also (seeing as how it's the only decent radar left!).  Meso was showing some decent 6-6.5 lapse rates moving up ahead of the mixing line.  Don't think I've ever seen gravity wave depictions on radar in a winter storm.

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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Is it just me or did this move much faster than models had it? Looking like much less ice now with the substantial dry slot that advected in ahead of that last trailing band

That particular dry slot was always on the sim radars.  Not sure if the overall west/east progression of the system is quicker though.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That particular dry slot was always on the sim radars.  Not sure if the overall west/east progression of the system is quicker though.

Yea models did depict dry slot well. It just seems like this moved out so fast. Maybe I'm wrong. Curious to see what model did best so we know which one to watch closer for 2nd storm. 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea models did depict dry slot well. It just seems like this moved out so fast. Maybe I'm wrong. Cutious to see what model did best so we know which one to watch closer for 2nd storm. 

What model did the best with this system (not the NAM), does not mean it would do as well with the next. Each scenario is different.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea models did depict dry slot well. It just seems like this moved out so fast. Maybe I'm wrong. Cutious to see what model did best so we know which one to watch closer for 2nd storm. 

There is some filling that appears to be going on in NW IL, hopefully that expands east

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21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Mostly freezing rain with a few pingers now here.  Went out and removed the snow before it became encased in a crusty layer.  Picked up 4.5" snow.

Not bad.  I know we were talking about the RGEM over there... it looks like the earlier runs had the heavier amounts too far south.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

What model did the best with this system (not the NAM), does not mean it would do as well with the next. Each scenario is different.

That is true because it is a more robust system in the southern stream instead of northern stream. Closed low. But I still like to see what model handled this best. Gives me a good ground basis. 

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parts of DMX that were under a WSW until 6 AM are now probably only going to get freezing drizzle the rest of the storm

 

La Crosse area is going to really get shafted.  They were under an advisory(1 county away from a warning) and only had 0.8" as of 6pm

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea models did depict dry slot well. It just seems like this moved out so fast. Maybe I'm wrong. Cutious to see what model did best so we know which one to watch closer for 2nd storm. 

The models recently are like watching NeckCar at Talladega.  Whomever is leading, the next lap they're liable to be 20th the following lap.  But there's gonna be 2 or 3 big ones they catch, just a matter of where east of the Mississippi it happens :lmao:

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