cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 New RGEM brings sleet in here/QC 3hrs earlier than previous runs. I'm sticking with my previous call even though it might go down in flames lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Looking forward to the severe weather here in Indy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 WRF_NSSL has us in ZR for 3.5 hours tomorrow night. More time in ZR than both the NAM 12k and the NAM 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Significant differences between the NAM and RGEM at 84 hrs/12z Fri. The RGEM is quite a bit colder at the surface and would be fairly ominous from an ice perspective. There is a lot of warm air flooding north though. It comes down to how quickly the sfc/near sfc cold layer erodes as that warm layer aloft gets warmer/deeper. Interesting to note on the NAM there is a fairly wide area where it is 32-33 degrees at the end of the run, so obviously any small changes could have important ramifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Significant differences between the NAM and RGEM at 84 hrs/12z Fri. The RGEM is quite a bit colder at the surface and would be fairly ominous from an ice perspective. There is a lot of warm air flooding north though. It comes down to how quickly the sfc/near sfc cold layer erodes as that warm layer aloft gets warmer/deeper. Interesting to note on the NAM there is a fairly wide area where it is 32-33 degrees at the end of the run, so obviously any small changes could have important ramifications.Admittedly was much more focused on tomorrow's event today but I'd still be concerned about h9 verifying colder as long as you keep that northeast component from the surface high to the northeast. Going into 12/28/15, we were much more concerned about icing than the sleet because of the magnitude of the 850 mb warming but the low level cold wedge was still enough to produce mostly sleet north of I-80. I saw some of the 925 mb progs being warmer than previous runs, so if that occurs then the sleet concern will be unfounded, though we still have plenty of time for changes with this setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Canadian a touch north with the main band. Looks like the models are settling in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Wish I could lock that sfc low track from the 0z GDPS. GFS continues to be wagons west with low and gives mostly rain to a good chunk of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 UK not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: UK not budging I'm assuming a lot of that is sleet along the southeast side of that. Nice to see but no way we're getting 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 0Z GEM is a fairly nasty ice event for Northern Indiana and Lower Michigan in the second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'm assuming a lot of that is sleet along the southeast side of that. Nice to see but no way we're getting 10" of snow.Based on this, any snow accumulated after 06z south of the 850 mb zero line probably sleet to freezing rain in reality. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Might not get here until next week if it keeps slowing down. Not too surprising I guess given the type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Might not get here until next week if it keeps slowing down. Not too surprising I guess given the type of system. 00Z ECMWF looks more concerning for a longer duration of ice on Friday north of I-80 and away from the lake. Dew points at 12z in the lower to mid 20s and still upper 20s to around 30 at 18z. Because of a weaker surface low and it tracking northeast from STL instead of more due north, winds become progressively more northerly. Also at 12z the surface ridging across the western lakes trended stronger at 1028 mb. I still wonder if 925 mb ends up being colder because of the surface pattern favoring it, but if not, that run definitely ups the ante for icing concerns. Crazy thing is part of the event is still out to and beyond the end of the NAM range, so there's still plenty of time for changes. The 00z EPS has a pretty large west to east spread of individual member sfc low positions, with relative clustering on the more west and more easterly camps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Nice little mini upgrade from Advisory to Warning for McHenry, Lee, DeKalb. Lay it down.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/27/2020 at 4:07 PM, A-L-E-K said: Final calls, 2.1 front end, rain to DAB part 2 $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 $$$. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 nice convective look out in KS, gonna really crank with the band this evening, been too long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Quite the spread on the p&c from LOT. 3-5" far SE Mchenry Co to 4-8" NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 u getting 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: u getting 6+ Not sure. Only models I see putting me in higher amts are UKMET and HRRR. Most others put heavier amts just NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Not sure. Only models I see putting me in higher amts are UKMET and HRRR. Most others put heavier amts just NWYou’re golden.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: You’re golden. . ez call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12Z HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Toss the NAM. It’s still having sig dry air issues...among other issues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Quite the spread on the p&c from LOT. 3-5" far SE Mchenry Co to 4-8" NW.And the 5-10" highmark in extreme NW on the UP line approaching the state line. Should be a dandy to unfold in real time.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX do show the incredibly dry air from ~650 to 900 mb. Dewpoints below -50C in that layer are among the lowest ever observed in both locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX do show the incredibly dry air from ~650 to 900 mb. Dewpoints below -50C in that layer are among the lowest ever observed in both locations. What does this insinuate? taking longer to saturate atmosphere, lower than expected QPF? colder than depicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 27 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: And the 5-10" highmark in extreme NW on the UP line approaching the state line. Should be a dandy to unfold in real time. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Glad we have at least 3 McHenry posters all in different areas. Will be interesting to see how this turns out, expect Woodstock to do better than Cary and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 What does this insinuate? taking longer to saturate atmosphere, lower than expected QPF? colder than depicted? It’s not going to mean too much, given ample advection from the southwest.Virga and top down saturation has already started into DVN and ILX CWA’s.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now