Baum Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'm due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'm due. And I'm not just due for a snowstorm, I'm due for one that actually overperforms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Positive vibes for 0z runs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Will the SE bumps continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Positive vibes for 0z runs Fail 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 HRRR keeps us snow for 7 hrs, then sleet, then some ZR for a bit. But almost no rain now. Huge improvement. (based on eyeball) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 NAM still surging the sleet and freezing rain into Cedar Rapids to southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Fail Yeah, NAM with a giant middle finger to the colder models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Lol. 0z nam. Sums up my analysis. I'm pretty much out for snow but hoping for some decent icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 The 00z 3k NAM is very aggressive with the WAA. Even Cedar Rapids only gets a few hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 The NAM seems a little ridiculous at a cursory glance. The waa wing of precip seems underdone compared to all other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Unless the 0z global models change their tune and move NW it's everyone vs the NAMs FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 game over. I'll hope for an inch and wash it off on New Years, if not before. Global warming sucks for winter weather lovers. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baum said: game over. I'll hope for an inch and wash it off on New Years, if not before. Global warming sucks for winter weather lovers. global warming sucks period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I think analyzing the NAM is as simple as tossing its BMJ parameterization scheme which does terribly with antecedent dry air. Look at the composite reflectivity vs the precip output and that should be all you need to see. It will take some time to top down saturate, but with robust moisture transport and strong forcing you shouldn't lose 3 hours of precip. The NAMs have it snowing hard aloft at 21z. If anything, skew timing earlier and account for possibly earlier northward surge of warm nose and the forecast is in decent shape. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Curious if RC has any thoughts on the NAM's saturation issues in the LOT cwa tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 51 minutes ago, madwx said: HRRR SE once again. Cyclone might reel this one in Feeling pretty good about a quick 5-6" before quick shift to sleet. HRRR drops 1.5" precip so could get quite the sleet storm tomorrow eve before changing to frz rain/rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Bingo. Thank you RC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, cyclone77 said: Feeling pretty good about a quick 5-6" before quick shift to sleet. HRRR drops 1.5" precip so could get quite the sleet storm tomorrow eve before changing to frz rain/rain. As RC stated above, sleet is not going to end up being the primary p-type in most places, a brief transition between snow and zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Nam has the low for 2nd storm in SW Missouri. Wagons west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Nam has the low for 2nd storm in SW Missouri. Wagons west. Lol this is a rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: this is a rainstorm. Perfect way to end 2020. With cold rain. Neat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Perfect way to end 2020. With cold rain. Neat Segway into a toasty January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Freezing rain band in 0z NAM 12k not as thick as in the 18z, which is good. Should translate to 3 hours of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Baum said: this is a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 LOL at everyone throwing in the towel on one NAM run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 This sounding below demonstrates the NAM's dry air issues pretty well. It's over LaSalle or Kendall County valid at 21z. If you go to the Precipitation Type parameter on COD, this area is not being counted as snow by the model. Yet you look at that sounding and that's very clearly a snow sounding, a good WAA snow sounding at that. 850 mb is a pretty good proxy for saturation level at which snow reaching the ground is a decent bet. Since the NAM is 3 hour time steps, not counting these areas of the grid space of having qpf as snow cuts into the qpf and snow totals unrealistically. This is an area where meteorologists and weather enthusiasts can add value to the model forecasts when we know their typical biases. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Man look at that hodo. Cue the snow wedges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 WSW for us @madwx @Geoboy645. Driving in for work at 3 AM Wednesday should be...interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 33 minutes ago, Baum said: this is a rainstorm. We could use the rain if we’re looking for some kind of a silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now