Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Gotta keep that backside changeover hope alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 If we could trend this thing just a few counties farther south, I'll sell myself to mother nature 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: If we could trend this thing just a few counties farther south, I'll sell myself to mother nature I have hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z NAM is beating the ice drum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 18z NAM is beating the ice drum Tick south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 HRRR and 3kNAM are so close over here, but the small difference is a big deal. The 3kNAM continues to lift sleet into Cedar Rapids for at least a few hours while snow continues to dump barely north. The HRRR keeps us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 wagons south again. A triangle between DBQ, MSN and RFD have to like where they are sitting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: HRRR and 3kNAM are so close over here, but the small difference is a big deal. The 3kNAM continues to lift sleet into Cedar Rapids for at least a few hours while snow continues to dump barely north. The HRRR keeps us snow. 3k has it sleeting all the way to Janesville, with a central WI jackpot. I have been burned many many times underestimating WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12km NAM a good step south to come more in line with the 3km and closer to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 HRRR has the party over by 6pm in the QC as sleet moves in. Luckily should snow fairly heavily for several hrs before that happens. Would def like to be further nw where there's a better shot at warning criteria. If we can delay WAA long enough still can't rule it out here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 With an 850 mb LLJ of 50-70 kts, I would not underestimate the push of warm air aloft. I'd be nervous on the southern edge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Honest question. Does WAA ever underperform and sleet stays farther south during setups like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Honest question. Does WAA ever underperform and sleet stays farther south? Ive never seen it. WAA seems to ALWAYS over perform. I doubt it will be different with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Honest question. Does WAA ever underperform and sleet stays farther south during setups like this? It probably does, but those events don't stick in my mind as much as the "4-6 inchers that turn into sleet storms". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Lets go ahead and lock this in now and call it a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 ^ let's not. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Lets go ahead and lock this in now and call it a day. This would be a dream storm, but 2+"/hr for several hours, which is what the HRRR is forecasting, is not realistic for Iowa. We are not Binghampton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Hour 84 of the NAM 12k has a huge swath of freezing rain with temps at 29-31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Natester said: Hour 84 of the NAM 12k has a huge swath of freezing rain with temps at 29-31F. Yes, this is pretty ugly. Other models show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yes, this is pretty ugly. Other models show something similar. Good timing with people out and about for New Years (even if the numbers are a bit less than usual due to covid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z nam has that wagons west look with surface pattern. Could be a good front end thump of ice before cold rain. Impressive look at 500mb with closed low. A stout ridge to the east could force this almost due north. Would like to see that ridge deamplify a bit so it could move more northeast than due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Chicago NWS Attention then turns quickly to that closed upper circulation to our southwest Thursday evening. Models remain in pretty good agreement in giving the short wave a negative-tilt orientation and pivoting it north-northeastward Thursday night. Precipitation is expected to develop and spread back north into the forecast area especially after midnight, as substantial warm/moist advection produces forced ascent and nudges the baroclinic zone associated with the old cold front to our south back into the area. Sub- freezing surface temperatures, reinforced by cool east-northeast flow from the retreating high to our north, will set the stage for a period of primarily freezing rain and sleet overnight into Friday morning (with some snow possible far north/northwest) as temperatures aloft rise above 0C. This is well-depicted in forecast soundings, which indicate a substantial warm layer centered around 850 mb, where temps warm from roughly +2 to +6 C (warmest south) by 12Z Friday. Surface temps are progged to slowly rise above freezing across the southeast half to two-thirds of the cwa through Friday afternoon as the surface low continues to lift toward the area, with decent model agreement that it eventually tracks somewhere near the southern end of Lake Michigan early Friday evening. With a plume of Gulf moisture allowing for model QPF of 0.25-0.50 inches or more across the area through midday Friday, the concern is that there could be some significant ice accumulation prior to freezing rain changing over to rain when temps warm above freezing, with our northwest counties across north central IL potentially seeing a mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain linger Friday afternoon. With the current track of the surface low, afternoon temps are expected to range from the low-mid 30s around Rockford, to around 40 in our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The trends are to put the worst of the ice storm in the western sub and farther west, even though that area is farther away from the core of the surface high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Most of the LOT cwa is under a warning or advisory except far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Most of the LOT cwa is under a warning or advisory except far southeast. 2-4" here maybe 3-5" by Rockford. Must be tossing that 18Z HRR into the waste basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 One of the short-term models that has a tendency to be one of the leaders in calling out stronger than expected WAA is the RGEM. It's been consistently further southeast of some other guidance for numerous runs so I'm going to take that as a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 2-4" here maybe 3-5" by Rockford. Must be tossing that 18Z HRR into the waste basket Buddy, they got 3-5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: One of the short-term models that has a tendency to be one of the leaders in calling out stronger than expected WAA is the RGEM. It's been consistently further southeast of some other guidance for numerous runs so I'm going to take that as a good sign. Hope it pans out. I do remember an event last winter (maybe January?) when it was a colder outlier and trying to give several inches of snow here. It didn't happen, the waa won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hope it pans out. I do remember an event last winter (maybe January?) when it was a colder outlier and trying to give several inches of snow here. It didn't happen, the waa won out. January 17? Also, 18z ICON east of 12z (for wave 2), not as scary of a run but still puts eastern Iowa in ice for 6-7 hours. Winds won't be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18Z GFS showing 4-5" of snow followed by .5" of ice for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now